Principles of statistical analysis occasionally overlooked

Seven frequently overlooked sources of error in the statistical analysis of periodicities are discussed and illustrations of them are drawn from recent published discussions of cosmic-ray observations. It is shown that, through non-observance of several principles of statistical analysis, many investigators have reached incorrect conclusions as to the reliability of the periodic variations which they have deduced from their observational results. The data taken by Bennett, Stearns, and Compton on Pike's Peak, September 1931, are tested by a criterion different from that which was employed by the original investigators, from which the conclusion is drawn that the variations they observed are attributable to accidents of observation.     

Solar influences on the cosmic ray intensity at high elevations

Instrument carrying balloon flights using the radio-cosmic-ray technique have been made during the day and the night, to investigate the amount of the diurnal variation at high altitudes. It was found that the effect, if any, is smaller than the experimental error of two per cent., and is estimated to be about 1.5 per cent. of the radiation at these levels. This permits a definite upper limit to be set to any contribution of solar origin to the ionization at levels up to 0.3 meters of water equivalent below the top of the atmosphere, which could be produced by photons in that spectral region to which mass-absorption laws apply, namely X-radiation. The magnitude of the effect is in agreement with the view advanced by Vallarta, that a magnetic field on the sun would produce a small diurnal change in the intensity of the softer portion of the cosmic ray intensity.     

Refractive temperature

Refraction tables used in navigation and surveying are almost all derived from those of Bessel, whose computations, based on English star observations, assume that atmospheric temperature decreases with height at the rate of about 0.6 F.° per 1,000 ft. Neither this assumption nor that of any subsequent investigator is entirely in accord with present-day knowledge of atmospheric structure, which generally has a temperature decrease of around 3 F.° per 1,000 ft. to the tropopause, with widely varying conditions above it. The Bessel tables in general use cannot be extrapolated for surface air temperatures much different from 50° F.; in particular, for extreme cold conditions it is desirable to use, in place of the actual air temperature, the refractive temperature, which is that temperature for which the refraction correction given in the tables equals the correction which is actually required, and which may be estimated from general climatic considerations.     

Relativistic solar cosmic rays

Solar and galactic cosmic rays are of profound astrophysical interest. One facet of contemporary cosmic ray research utilizes these energetic particles as space probes for studying the characteristics of the solar-controlled interplanetary medium, the heliosphere, which is essentially the extension of the solar corona to a considerable distance beyond the orbit of earth. Solar cosmic ray observations in particular contribute to our understanding of the earth's environs, the interplanetary medium, and the sun itself. Appropriately deployed ground-based cosmic ray detectors utilize the earth as a spacedraft for carrying out experiments that are far beyond the capacity of artificial satellites. In interpreting the observations, however, the effects of the geomagnetic field and of the atmosphere must be taken into account by appropriate analytical procedures. Theoretical models account for many of the characteristics of the observed modulations and anisotropies, which manifest themselves as temporal or spatial intensity variations. Analysis of the measurements in terms of various models provides an understanding of the physical mechanisms, as well as the determination of the relevant parameters. Properties of solar cosmic rays that have been investigated include spectra, angular distributions, transport mechanisms and the acceleration to relativistic energies.     

高校辅导员基于精准资助的育人工作实践探析

在高校资助体系中,精准资助与资助育人是实现教育公平的重要举措,二者相辅相成。精准资助是资助育人的基础保障,资助育人是精准资助的深入发展。针对当前高校精准资助育人工作在“三观”“三力”等方面的育人问题,文章以高校辅导员为出发点,提出精准资助育人工作的实施路径:一是提升专业素质,大力建设资助工作队伍;二是创新帮扶理念,积极探索长效宣传模式;三是深入社区生活,高度重视心理发展动态;四是开拓实践平台,精心打造特色服务品牌;五是统筹各方合力,着力构建多元育人体系。     

空间时代的天文学研究——从空间天文观测到诺贝尔物理学奖

首届诺贝尔物理学奖授予了揭开了现代物理学序幕的X射线的发现,随后的20多年中与X射线密切相关的诺贝尔物理学奖层出不尽。而一个世纪之后空间天文领域的第一个诺贝尔物理学奖于2002年授予了空间X射线天文的突破,由此打开了人类观测宇宙的新窗口。从1962年发现第一个宇宙X射线源至今半个世纪以来,已经有约70个携带天文仪器的空间飞行器(以专用卫星为主)发射运行,极大地促进了人类对于宇宙和基本物理规律的认识。随后2006年的诺贝尔物理学奖授予了"宇宙背景探索者"(COBE)卫星对宇宙微波背景黑体辐射谱的精确测量和观测到空间分布的各向异性。2011年诺贝尔物理学奖授予了宇宙加速膨胀的发现,著名的哈勃空间望远镜对此做出了关键贡献。这样在新世纪空间天文的研究就直接产生了两个诺贝尔物理学奖,并且对第三个起了重要作用,非常类似20世纪初X射线对于诺贝尔物理学奖的作用。文章通过分析这三个以及天文学研究所获得的所有其他诺贝尔物理学奖,发现除了2006年的诺贝尔物理学奖之外,其他所有的获奖成果都和项目最初的科学目标没有关系或者完全相反。与此同时,探讨了重大天文发现的偶然性和必然性,这对于处于快速发展初期的中国空间天文具有很好的借鉴作用。     

The action of hydrogen peroxide on photographic gelatino-silver halide emulsions

1. The sensitometric characteristics of photographic plates exposed to hydrogen peroxide and developed are strikingly similar, both for time of exposures, time of development, and intensity i.e., concentration). Characteristic curves similar to H. and D. curves were obtained, including a period of “reversal.”2. A tentative theory of the action of hydrogen peroxide is suggested. It is supposed that the decomposition of peroxide is chemi-luminiscent, short wave-length radiation being afforded at the surface of the silver halide grain, and particularly at check the hypothesis that these nuclei consist of colloid silver.The authors desire to express their thanks to Mr. R. F. Quirk and Mr. E. Huberth for painstaking assistance in the experi- mental work, and to Miss Anber J. Benedict for making the pH measurements.     

Cosmic rays and particle physics at extremely high energies

Cosmic ray extensive air shower observations can give clues about the properties of high-energy particle interactions above 10¹⁵eV, in addition to giving information about the primary cosmic ray spectrum at these energies. A brief review of recent high energy accelerator data and its theoretical interpretation is given to explain the necessity for obtaining information from cosmic rays about hadronic interactions beyond machine energies. In particular, it is shown that recent measurements of the energy dependence of total cross-sections and of production cross-sections suggest some sort of threshold behavior in the 1000 GeV region. Studies at higher energies are required to understand the nature of this behavior. The use of air shower data for this purpose is illustrated by comparing shower size us depth measurements with the expectations of various models of strong interactions.     

Evidence for the secondary structure of lithium fluoride by atomic diffraction

When atom waves were reflected from a cleaved [100] surface of a LiF crystal, diffuse secondary spectra appeared which were well-defined in direction but were otherwise unresolved. This is regarded as evidence for a secondary structure on the surface of the crystal the directions of which are those of the cleavage planes. This secondary structure may have the period given by the theory of Zwicky but if so it must be slightly irregular either as regards this period or as regards the reflecting power of the intervening surfaces.The writer wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Mr. M. A. Roesch in making the experiments.     

Standards for gas service

The method of analyzing the results of cosmic ray deflection experiments, developed in a previous paper, is here extended to the case where the region of uniform deflecting field is of the same width as that of the counters. In this form it is applicable to the electrostatic deflection experiment of Lenz, and to the electrostatic and magnetic experiments of W. F. G. Swann and the writer. The magnetic experiments of Curtiss and of Mott-Smith are reexamined in the light of the energy distribution recently published by Anderson and Nedderineyer. The latter's result is found to be not inconsistent with the assumption that the induction B gives the correct force; the result of the former requires the addition of low energy rays to the distribution.     

The D-region of the ionosphere

The D-region of the ionosphere, traditionally defined as the region of ionization below 100 km, is a link between the non-ionized stratosphere below and the dense plasma above. In it, minor neutral constituents play a dominant role and chemical reactions, both neutral and ionic, are dominant. It plays a very important role in the propagation of radiowaves at all frequencies below 30 MHz, and is particularly important in effecting communication over areas of the earth, such as polar regions, that are inaccessible to synchronous satellite links.     

高海拔宇宙线观测站对地方科教及经济社会的影响

高海拔宇宙线观测站(Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory,LHAASO)项目是中国科学家在国际宇宙线研究领域提出的重大前沿项目,也是中国在西南地区布局的又一重大科技基础设施。LHAASO项目的实施将最终建成具有国际先进水平的宇宙线研究中心,与世界其他3个宇宙线观测站(位于阿根廷的极高能宇宙线观测站、位于南极的中微子天文观测站、待建的甚高能伽玛天文观测站)形成优势互补,对宇宙线起源这一世纪之谜发起冲击,并推动粒子物理学、天文学、宇宙学领域的相关科学研究产生突破性进展。同时,项目的建设运行也将对设施所在地的科学研究、学科发展、人才培养有重要影响,提高地区科学普及水平,并带动相关经济文化发展。文章将针对重大科技基础设施对地方的科技教育及经济社会影响进行初步分析。     

Modeling the adoption rates of manufacturing technology innovations by small US manufacturers: a longitudinal investigation

This study provides conclusive evidence to support the view that small plants are slower than larger plants to adopt manufacturing innovations. This empirical study based on over 1000 US manufacturing plants engaged in producing discrete products, studies the adoption of manufacturing technologies in small plants relative to large plants between 1993 and 1997.Under the assumption that small manufacturers are disadvantaged, several federal and state programs have been created to assist small manufacturers in acquiring and adopting manufacturing innovations. Through quantification of technology adoption in small manufacturing firms, this study’s findings reveal which manufacturing innovations are in greater need of governmental assistance programs. While small plants are making progress over time in catching up with larger plants in computerized technology use, they are not making similar progress in adopting manufacturing technology innovations in soft technologies. Several propositions for future research and recommendations for public policy are offered.     

现代物理学体现出的哲学与科学的内在统一性

现代物理学对宇观和微观领域的研究对科学理论和科学仪器具有高度依赖性,这就在科学理论、科学仪器、观测结果、对观测结果的解释和评价这四者之间建立了某种统一性的关系。这一关系导致了现代物理学的研究既是科学的,又是哲学的,并且,同时又是源于科学的哲学,还是源于哲学的科学。爱因斯坦和玻尔的世纪大论战、爱因斯坦的理想试验和相对论理论、量子力学的微观模型、超弦理论的构想,以及现代物理学对微观终极性的探索体现出来的正是现代科学中所呈现的科学的哲学化和哲学的科学化的一般发展趋势。     

长白山森林土壤剖面氨基糖的分布

研究了长白山土壤剖面中3种氨基糖的垂直分布规律及其对土壤有机质库的贡献,样品采自长白山北坡3个样点(海拔分别为600m,1680m和2580m).3种氨基糖对总氨基糖的贡献为氨基葡萄糖>氨基半乳糖>胞壁酸,剖面中氨基糖的含量及氨基糖对土壤有机质的贡献,在表层土壤中随土壤剖面深度增加而增加,但在矿质层中规律不同.不同纬度的氨基葡萄糖/胞壁酸比值与氨基葡萄糖/氨基半乳糖比值不同,说明它们来源于不同的微生物种群.     

基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估

由二分式条件价值评估法得到的样本数据,通常会包含零观察值,以往研究中的支付意愿函数模型和Tobit模型未能妥善处理零观察值,降低了评估结果的准确性。针对零观察值问题,本文通过构建支付意愿的双栏模型,将零观察值纳入CVM数据分析,提出了双栏模型参数估计方法。以三江平原湿地生态保护价值为例,得到黑龙江省居民的平均支付意愿为127.93元/（人·年）,低于支付意愿函数模型的计算结果134.58元/（人・年）,高于Tobit模型的计算结果102.52元/（人・年）,得到2010年三江平原湿地生态保护价值为49.01亿元/年。研究结果验证双栏模型可以避免因删除零观察值而导致估算结果的高估及将所有零值归为真实零观察值所导致估算结果的低估。通过比较两栏的结果发现,收入、了解程度、游玩次数等影响因素在两方程中的作用不同,表明参与和支付是两种不同的机制,需要区分处理。研究结论为CVM研究中零观察值的处理提供新的途径,为生态环境管理提供决策参考依据。     

The first 'molecular disease': a story of Linus Pauling, the intellectual patron

In November 1949, chemist Linus Pauling and three colleagues published an article on sickle-cell anemia, a study that opened up new and exciting possibilities for research into such 'molecular diseases'. Even before this celebrated publication appeared in Science, Pauling foresaw its potential benefits and announced it as a medical breakthrough: '... our structural chemistry and understanding of molecules is getting to the point where it should be of assistance in converting medicine into a real science' [Guiles, R. (1949) Discovery of blood disease called key to cancer research. The Detroit Times 13 Sep 1949, Newspaper Clippings 1949n.18, Pauling Papers.]. Their discovery--that this debilitating disorder was caused by an abnormal form of hemoglobin--was borne out of a rich mix of expertise, from Pauling's remarkable intuition to the careful experimental chemistry of his student Harvey A. Itano. It also relied upon technological innovation: a custom-made electrophoresis machine housed at the California Institute of Technology was the perfect tool to reveal fundamental chemical differences between normal and abnormal forms of hemoglobin. Not only did this work establish a new way of looking at inherited diseases, it also stimulated the mass production of the electrophoresis machine as an essential investigative and diagnostic tool. A close inspection of this case study illustrates just how Pauling ran his laboratory and helps to explain how one man could achieve so much over his lifetime.     

基于MODIS数据的中国地面水汽压模拟与分析

采用2006年MODIS逐日红外与近红外大气可降水量（MOD05）数据,结合常规气象观测资料,建立了中国逐月地面水汽压模拟统计模型,得到了2006年1km×1km中国逐月地面水汽压数据集。通过对全国33个台站和河南省100个加密站的验证,地面水汽压的模拟值与实测值的相关性均达0.96以上,并且均有90%以上的样本相对误差平均值小于20%。研究结果表明：2006年中国地面水汽压月平均值在3.47～17.13hPa之间,全国年平均值为8.87hPa,地面水汽压呈现出显著的地带性分布;分析了地面水汽压随海拔、坡度和坡向等地形因子的变化规律,较好地反映出地面水汽压的宏观分布趋势和局地分布特征;基于MODIS数据的地面水汽压模型为复杂地形条件下能量收支平衡和大气水循环的研究提供了一种切实可行的方法。     

互惠性偏好下知识型团队技术创新能力培育机制研究

 传统的经济人假设是一种抽象的理想状态,不能够对现实的经济现象做出合理的解释。随着经济的发展和社会的进步,经济个体的互惠性偏好将逐渐作为一种心理常态呈现在人们面前,对经济发展产生了积极的促进功能。作为一种特殊的经济单位,互惠性偏好在知识型团队中能够呈现出显著的经济学效应。知识型团队的互惠性偏好可以通过促进知识转移和组织学习功能的改进而最终促进团队技术创新能力的提高。实证性检验可以有效地揭示互惠性偏好对技术创新能力的路径传导机理,为我国企业充分发挥互惠性偏好的经济效应提供可靠的理论支持。     

宇宙与人生——无限并循环的宇宙模型及可演化出多神

笔者提出无限并循环的宇宙模型。认为我们所能观察到的只是宇宙中无数个单位中的一个,称为本宇宙单位。它由宇宙单位黑洞_（母黑洞）爆炸形成。无数个由母黑洞形成,到爆炸,到宇宙单位发展,成熟,被另外在形成中的母偶洞“吞蚀”等不同发展阶段的宇宙单位构成了无限并循环的宇宙。母黑洞爆炸的壳层碎片及尘埃（暗物质）构成星系的,恒星的,甚至原始行星的核,并决定其运动型式;母黑洞中央由引力子裂解形成的无极子团,是宇宙单位爆炸,膨涨的斥力来源,属暗能量的一部分。邻宇宙单位对本宇宙单位的引力是暗能量的另一部允是使本宇宙单位目前加速膨胀的主要能量。提出宇宙三定律：1,宇宙是无限的：表现为承载万物及其变化的空间无边无际;描述万物变化快慢的时间无始无终。2,宇宙是循环的：以宇宙单位为单元。以宇宙单位黑洞（母黑洞）形成,到爆炸,到宇宙单位发展,成熟,被另外在形成中的母黑洞‘‘吞蚀”等,不同发展阶段的无数宇宙单位,共同构成了无限并循环的宇宙。3,宇宙是自有永有并全面自动的演化着：宇宙中的万物都在按照自然规律全面自动的衍化着,不以人的意志为转移。‘提出人类发展的胚胎期,婴儿期,幼儿期清年期,成年期和长生期。目前人类仅处在婴儿期向幼儿期的过渡阶段。以进化论的观点分扼提出在本宇亩单位中衍化出“神”来的可能性极高,粗不只一种。在宇宙中衍化出‘种”来的可能性是100％。“神”的定义是：具极高智慧并掌握了一切自然规律的灵体。他们可穿越时空＇毪IJ造生命。进化是因,是过程;神是进化的最高境界,是果。无进化,神无源;无袍进化无果。人是进化过程中的一个重要环节’但不是最终结果。这可把进化与神统一起来。提出人类不仅应崇敬袍祈求神的帮助,更应向神学习去争取掌握一切自然规律,以求永生长存。人类向神学习的方法是,要做到社会和谐,不断进行科学研究If罡进人类发展,争取掌握一切自然规律。在地球毁灭之前能离开地球;在太阳毁灭之前能离开太阳系;在银河系毁灭之前能离开银河系;在本宇宙单位毁灭之前能离开本宇宙单位,能在宇宙中避凶趋吉,“自由行是”永生长存。达不到这个目的,人类将在宇宙的衍化过程中毁灭。这不是人类的期望。此,应为人类的子利、后代永世不忘。（图2）