Explaining match outcome in elite Australian Rules football using team performance indicators

The relationships between team performance indicators and match outcome have been examined in many team sports, however are limited in Australian Rules football. Using data from the 2013 and 2014 Australian Football League (AFL) regular seasons, this study assessed the ability of commonly reported discrete team performance indicators presented in their relative form (standardised against their opposition for a given match) to explain match outcome (Win/Loss). Logistic regression and decision tree (chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID)) analyses both revealed relative differences between opposing teams for “kicks” and “goal conversion” as the most influential in explaining match outcome, with two models achieving 88.3% and 89.8% classification accuracies, respectively. Models incorporating a smaller performance indicator set displayed a slightly reduced ability to explain match outcome (81.0% and 81.5% for logistic regression and CHAID, respectively). However, both were fit to 2014 data with reduced error in comparison to the full models. Despite performance similarities across the two analysis approaches, the CHAID model revealed multiple winning performance indicator profiles, thereby increasing its comparative feasibility for use in the field. Coaches and analysts may find these results useful in informing strategy and game plan development in Australian Rules football, with the development of team-specific models recommended in future.     

A method to assess the influence of individual player performance distribution on match outcome in team sports

This study developed a method to determine whether the distribution of individual player performances can be modelled to explain match outcome in team sports, using Australian Rules football as an example. Player-recorded values (converted to a percentage of team total) in 11 commonly reported performance indicators were obtained for all regular season matches played during the 2014 Australian Football League season, with team totals also recorded. Multiple features relating to heuristically determined percentiles for each performance indicator were then extracted for each team and match, along with the outcome (win/loss). A generalised estimating equation model comprising eight key features was developed, explaining match outcome at a median accuracy of 63.9% under 10-fold cross-validation. Lower 75th, 90th and 95th percentile values for team goals and higher 25th and 50th percentile values for disposals were linked with winning. Lower 95th and higher 25th percentile values for Inside 50s and Marks, respectively, were also important contributors. These results provide evidence supporting team strategies which aim to obtain an even spread of goal scorers in Australian Rules football. The method developed in this investigation could be used to quantify the importance of individual contributions to overall team performance in team sports.     

A rule induction framework for the determination of representative learning design in skilled performance

Representative learning design provides a framework for the extent to which practice simulates key elements of a performance setting. Improving both the measurement and analysis of representative learning design would allow for the refinement of sports training environments that seek to replicate competition conditions and provide additional context to the evaluation of athlete performance. Using rule induction, this study aimed to develop working models for the determination of high frequency, representative events in Australian Rules football kicking. A sample of 9005 kicks from the 2015 Australian Football League season were categorised and analysed according to the following constraints: type of pressure, kick distance, possession source, time in possession, velocity and kick target. The Apriori algorithm was used to develop two models. The first consisted of 10 rules containing the most commonly occurring constraint sets occurring during the kick in AF, with support values ranging from 0.15 to 0.22. None of the rules contained more than three constraints and confidence values ranged from 0.63 to 0.84. The second model considered ineffective and effective kick outcomes and displayed 70% classification accuracy. This research provides a measurement approach to determine the degree of representativeness of sports practice and is directly applicable to various team sports.     

Match running performance and skill execution improves with age but not the number of disposals in young Australian footballers

This study investigated age-related differences in maturity, physical and functional characteristics and playing performance in youth Australian Football (AF). Young male players (n = 156) were recruited from 12 teams across 6 age groups (U10–U15) of a recreational AF club. All players were tested for body size, maturity and fitness. Player performance was assessed during a match in which disposals (kicks and handballs) and their effectiveness were coded from a video recording and match running performance measured using Global Positioning System. Significant main effects (P < 0.01) for age group were observed for age, years to peak height velocity, body mass, height, 20 m sprint, maximal speed over 20 m, vertical jump, 20 m multistage shuttle run, match distance, high-speed running distance, peak speed, number of effective disposals and percentage of effective disposals. Age-related differences in fitness characteristics (speed, lower body power and endurance) appeared to transfer to match running performance. The frequency in which players disposed of the football did not differ between age groups, however the effectiveness of each disposal (i.e., % effective disposals) improved with age. Match statistics, particularly those that evaluate skill execution outcome (i.e., effectiveness), are useful to assess performance and to track player development over time. Differences between age groups, and probably variability within age groups, are strongly associated with chronological age and maturity.     

The efficacy of talent selection criteria in the Australian Football League

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the association between talent selection criteria, draft order and match performance in professional Australian Football players. Physical performance results from the Australian Football League (AFL) National Draft combine and non-performance based talent selection criteria were collated for all players drafted in the National Draft with selections 1–80 between 2003 and 2008 (n = 318). Match performance was assessed via the AFL Player Ranking metric that was provided by a commercial statistical provider (Champion Data Pty Ltd). A combination of stepwise multiple regression and linear mixed model analyses examined the influence of National Draft combine physical performance assessments and non-performance based talent selection criteria on draft order and future match performance. Earlier draft selection was associated with Under-18 all Australian team selection, height, Under-18 National Championship participation and indigenous status. The 20 m sprint and state of origin were associated with later draft selection. Under-18 all Australian team selection increased both Player Ranking/game and total Player Ranking. Under-18 all Australian team selection displays efficacy for selecting players with the potential for success.     

第17届亚洲杯中国男子国家足球队比赛表现深度分析

为探析中国男子国家足球队在第17届亚洲杯足球比赛中的表现,以其在本届亚洲杯上的全部5场比赛为研究对象,通过文献资料调研、视频观察和数理统计等方法对中国队比赛中的技战术、心理和体能等方面表现进行分析。结果:1)技术能力方面,中国队在向前越过对手和防线的渗透性传球、接球转身、第1次触球、射门以及攻击性防守等关键技术应用方面与韩国、伊朗等强队存在明显差距。2)战术能力方面,中国队战术素养和中路进攻能力以及在攻防转换能力方面亟待提高。3)心理与身体能力方面,中国队在国际大赛中缺乏稳定的心理表现,注意力转换和抗应激能力亟需加强;与强队相比中国队在足球专项速度、预判和决策速度以及高速奔跑中身体对抗方面处于劣势。     

足球运动员耐力素质训练的新思考

足球运动员主要需要快速能源系统供能,需要在比赛各部分之间快速恢复的能力,以及反复产生最大力量的能力,因此,足球运动员的体能训练应重点放在爆发式的快速冲刺(20m左右)、冲顶、堵截等方面,无氧耐力素质训练应与足球技战术训练联系起来进行.     

Informing in-season tactical periodisation in team sport: development of a match difficulty index for Super Rugby

In team sports, tactical periodisation refers to the planned manipulation of training loads with the aim of prioritising athlete readiness for matches of greatest importance. Although monitoring of athletes’ physical condition is often used to inform this planning, the direct influence of external factors on match difficulty has not been well quantified. In this study, a ‘match difficulty index’ (MDI) for use in Super Rugby was developed, based on the influence imparted by five external factors on previous match outcomes. Specifically, information relating to match location, days break between matches, time-zone change and opposition ladder position (both current and previous year) were collected for matches played during the 2011–2013 Super Rugby seasons. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the importance of each of these factors with respect to match outcome (win/loss), with opposition ladder position and match location (home, domestic away or international) exerting the greatest influence on match difficulty. Three separate cross-validated models were constructed, with match outcome classification performance reported as 66.2%, 65.5% and 63.7% respectively. The three MDI models emanating from this study can each be used to inform tactical periodisation program design both prior to and during the regular season.     

Technical and physical match performance of teams in the 2018 FIFA World Cup: Effects of two different playing styles

ABSTRACT

In order to investigate the effect of playing styles on the match performance of football teams, data were analysed on 18 technical performance-related variables and 8 physical performance-related variables from 59 matches in the 2018 FIFA World Cup. A k-means cluster analysis was conducted to classify all match observations into two clusters of tactical approach in order to identify the playing styles of teams (characterised as direct-play, possession-play and mixed-play). Separate Poisson regression models were run in the generalised mixed linear modelling to examine the differences in technical and physical performance between teams classified as using different playing styles when facing different opponents. Results showed that possession-play characterised teams achieved higher values in all the variables related to goal scoring, attacking and passing (ES: 0.32 ~ 1.27) and covered more distance in sprints and high-intensity running (ES: 0.33 ~ 0.47) than direct-play characterised teams. Both possession- and direct-play characterised teams achieved higher values in passing, pass accuracy and delivery into the attacking third playing against direct-play characterised teams than playing against possession-play characterised sides (ES: 0.22 ~ 0.98). These findings may provide insights into the establishment of performance profiles of teams with different tactical styles and the development of specific training drills to optimise playing style.     

我国男子篮球8强技、战术特征的灰色关联分析

运用灰色关联分析方法 ,对近 5个赛季全国男子篮球甲A联赛各队的技战术指标进行量化分析 ,探讨了男子篮球甲A联赛 8强的技战术特征 ,为男子篮球甲A联赛及其各队的技战术发展提供科学依据。     

对18届世界杯澳大利亚队比赛特点的分析

采用录像统计法、观察法、数理统计法，对澳大利亚队的3场小组赛以及1场1／8决赛进行分析。结果表明：澳大利亚队在世界杯比赛上的阵形以3-6-1为主，进攻时积极向前压上，依靠集体的短传配合和细腻的个人技术向对方球门推进；防守时依靠强壮的身体进行积极凶狠的拼抢并利用灵活多变的打法，对对方进行阻截，最终取得了比较好的战绩。     

Squad management,injury and match performance in a professional soccer team over a championship-winning season

Abstract

Squad management, injury and physical, tactical and technical match performance were investigated in a professional soccer team across five consecutive league seasons (2008–2013, 190 league games) with specific focus on a championship-winning season (2010/11). For each player, match participation and time-loss injuries were recorded, the latter prospectively diagnosed by the team's physician. Defending and attacking tactical and technical performance indicators investigated included ball possession and possession in opponents' half, passes, forward passes, completed passes and forward passes, crosses and completed crosses, goal attempts and goal attempts on target, successful final third entries, free-kicks and 50/50 duels won/lost. Physical performance measures included total distance and distance covered at high-speeds (≥19.1 km/h). Results showed that during the 2010/11 season, squad utilisation was lowest potentially owing to the observed lower match injury occurrence and working days lost to injury thereby increasing player availability. In 2010/11, the team won both its highest number of points and conceded its lowest number of goals especially over the second half of this season. The team also won its highest number of games directly via a goal from a substitute and scored and conceded a goal first on the highest and lowest number of occasions, respectively. While multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) detected a significant difference in some attacking and defensive performance indicators across the five seasons, these were generally not distinguishing factors in 2010/11. Similarly, univariate ANOVAs showed a significant difference in running distances covered across seasons, but the trend was for less activity in 2010/11.     

Phases of match-play in professional Australian Football: Distribution of physical and technical performance

ABSTRACT

The current study aimed to describe the distribution of physical and technical performance during the different phases of play in professional Australian Football. The phases of play (offence, defence, contested play, umpire stoppages, set shots and goal resets) were manually coded from video footage for a single team competing in 18 matches in the Australian Football League. Measures of physical performance including total distance (m), average speed (m · min^?1), low-speed running (LSR, <14.4 km h^?1), high-speed running (HSR, >14.4 km h^?1), accelerations (2.78 m · s^?2) and decelerations (?2.78 m · s^?2) were derived from each phase of play via global positioning system (GPS) devices. Technical skill data including tackles, handballs and kicks were obtained from a commercial statistics provider and derived from each phase of play. Linear mixed-effects models and effect sizes were used to assess and reflect the differences in physical and technical performance between the six phases of play. Activity and recovery cycles, defined as periods where the ball was in or out of play were also described using mean and 95% confidence intervals. The analysis showed that several similarities existed between offence and defence for physical performance metrics. Contested play involved the highest total distance, LSR, accelerations, decelerations and tackles compared to all other phases. Offence and defence involved the highest average speed and HSR running distances. Handballs and kicks were highest during offence, while tackles were highest during contested play, followed by defence. Activity and recovery cycles involved mean durations of ~110 and ~39 s and average speeds of ~160 and ~84 m · min^?1, respectively. The integration of video, GPS and technical skill data can be used to investigate specific phases of Australian Football match-play and subsequently guide match analysis and training design.     

The influence of match location,quality of opposition,and match status on technical performance in professional association football

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on the technical aspects of performance within a single professional British football team. Forty matches from the 2002–2003 and 2003–2004 domestic league seasons were notated post-event using a computerized notational analysis system with 13 on-the-ball behaviours and corresponding outcomes (successful or unsuccessful) assessed. Log-linear modelling procedures indicated that the incidences of all on-the-ball technical behaviours, with the exception of “set-pieces”, were influenced by at least one of the three situation variables, with both independent and interactive effects found. In contrast, logit modelling suggested that there was no general influence of the situation variables on the outcomes of the on-the-ball behaviours. The findings emphasize the need for notational analysts and coaches to consider the potential independent and interactive effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status when assessing the technical components of football performance, particularly those relating to behaviour occurrence. Future research should consider the effects of additional situation variables purported to influence the mental, physical, technical, and tactical components of football performance.     

Technical and tactical skills related to performance levels in tennis: A systematic review

The aim of this systematic review is to provide an overview of outcome measures and instruments identified in the literature for examining technical and tactical skills in tennis related to performance levels. Such instruments can be used to identify talent or the specific skill development training needs of particular players. Searches for this review were conducted using the PubMed, Web of Science, and PsycInfo databases. Out of 733 publications identified through these searches, 40 articles were considered relevant and included in this study. They were divided into three categories: (1) technical skills, (2) tactical skills and (3) integrated technical and tactical skills. There was strong evidence that technical skills (ball velocity and to a lesser extent ball accuracy) and tactical skills (decision making, anticipation, tactical knowledge and visual search strategies) differed among players according to their performance levels. However, integrated measurement of these skills is required, because winning a point largely hinges on a tactical decision to perform a particular stroke (i.e., technical execution). Therefore, future research should focus on examining the relationship between these skills and tennis performance and on the development of integrated methods for measuring these skills.     

The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on technical performance in professional association football

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on the technical aspects of performance within a single professional British football team. Forty matches from the 2002--2003 and 2003--2004 domestic league seasons were notated post-event using a computerized notational analysis system with 13 on-the-ball behaviours and corresponding outcomes (successful or unsuccessful) assessed. Log-linear modelling procedures indicated that the incidences of all on-the-ball technical behaviours, with the exception of "set-pieces", were influenced by at least one of the three situation variables, with both independent and interactive effects found. In contrast, logit modelling suggested that there was no general influence of the situation variables on the outcomes of the on-the-ball behaviours. The findings emphasize the need for notational analysts and coaches to consider the potential independent and interactive effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status when assessing the technical components of football performance, particularly those relating to behaviour occurrence. Future research should consider the effects of additional situation variables purported to influence the mental, physical, technical, and tactical components of football performance.     

The application of a multi-dimensional assessment approach to talent identification in Australian football

ABSTRACT

This study investigated whether a multi-dimensional assessment could assist with talent identification in junior Australian football (AF). Participants were recruited from an elite under 18 (U18) AF competition and classified into two groups; talent identified (State U18 Academy representatives; n = 42; 17.6 ± 0.4 y) and non-talent identified (non-State U18 Academy representatives; n = 42; 17.4 ± 0.5 y). Both groups completed a multi-dimensional assessment, which consisted of physical (standing height, dynamic vertical jump height and 20 m multistage fitness test), technical (kicking and handballing tests) and perceptual-cognitive (video decision-making task) performance outcome tests. A multivariate analysis of variance tested the main effect of status on the test criterions, whilst a receiver operating characteristic curve assessed the discrimination provided from the full assessment. The talent identified players outperformed their non-talent identified peers in each test (P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve reflected near perfect discrimination (AUC = 95.4%), correctly classifying 95% and 86% of the talent identified and non-talent identified participants, respectively. When compared to single assessment approaches, this multi-dimensional assessment reflects a more comprehensive means of talent identification in AF. This study further highlights the importance of assessing multi-dimensional performance qualities when identifying talented team sports.     

The influence of match phase and field position on collective team behaviour in Australian Rules football

This study investigated the influence of match phase and field position on collective team behaviour in Australian Rules football (AF). Data from professional male athletes (years 24.4 ± 3.7; cm 185.9 ± 7.1; kg 85.4 ± 7.1), were collected via 10 Hz global positioning system (GPS) during a competitive AFL match. Five spatiotemporal metrics (x-axis centroid, y–axis centroid, length, width, and surface area), occupancy maps, and Shannon Entropy (ShannEn) were analysed by match phase (offensive, defensive, and contested) and field position (defensive 50, defensive midfield, forward midfield, and forward 50). A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) revealed that field position had a greater influence on the x-axis centroid comparative to match phase. Conversely, match phase had a greater influence on length, width, and surface area comparative to field position. Occupancy maps revealed that players repositioned behind centre when the ball was in their defensive half and moved forward of centre when the ball was in their forward half. Shannon Entropy revealed that player movement was more variable during offence and defence (ShannEn = 0.82–0.93) compared to contest (ShannEn = 0.68–0.79). Spatiotemporal metrics, occupancy maps, and Shannon Entropy may assist in understanding the game style of AF teams.     

论如何加强足球运动员的战术意识

随着足球运动的迅猛发展 ,比赛对运动员的技术、战术、身体素质和心理等方面的要求越来越高 ,能否正确运用战术将会影响比赛的胜负 ,而战术意识和战术行动是战术的两个方面 ,战术运动是战术意识的直接结果。研究表明 ,运动队整体战术意识水平的高低反映出该队运动水平的高低 ,运动员战术意识水平的高低也反映出运动员运动技术水平的高低。因此 ,加强运动员的战术意识培养是当前提高我国足球运动水平的主要途径。