全球治理视域中的全球气候变化问题

随着人类工业文明的不断发展与进步,人类在创造了极其灿烂的物质文明的同时,也导致了以全球变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化问题的产生。全球气候变化问题的出现,对人类社会的政治、经济和环境等许多领域都产生了严重的影响,已经成为当前国际社会关注的一个全球性问题。为了应对全球气候变化带来的挑战,国际社会应积极努力,加强合作,进行全球治理。     

Climate change, flooding and the media in Britain

The weather is a preoccupation of the British public, and flooding has become a salient feature of their experience. Climate science also has important things to say about the prevalence, distribution and dangers of rainfall and flooding, and what we should expect from global warming. This paper looks at British press coverage of flooding, and at the connections made between this theme and climate change. It aims to expose longitudinal patterning, and assess how common the connection is. From here the analysis moves to specific cases of high profile flooding events for a detailed exploration of the tone and tenor, and discursive contours of reports. The results suggest the media's contribution to genuine debate is mixed, that the connection between common forms of reportage and our scientific understanding of the phenomena is often tenuous. The paper explores the implications for the way the politics of climate change plays out.     

1979—2017年北极陆地气候变化趋势

北极地区是受全球变暖影响最为显著的地区之一。北极升温速率超过全球平均速率的2倍,这一“极地放大现象”和海冰的快速消融不仅造成当地环境的剧烈变化,还深刻影响着中纬度的天气和气候系统。深入理解气候长期趋势的季节和地理分布特征,有助于应对北极气候变化及其影响,并为未来开发北极资源服务。考虑到北极地区观测台站稀疏带来的不确定性,本文利用多套格点化的观测分析和ERA-Interim再分析资料,结合线性趋势分析,研究了1979—2017年60°N以北陆地地表温度、降水、气温日较差、年较差及相关极端气候指标的变化趋势。结果显示：①各资料中气温变化的一致性很高,但对于降水在2008年之后的变化,不同资料差异较大,可能是金融危机下可用台站数量急剧下降造成的。②ERA-Interim再分析资料能够很好地再现北极陆地温度和降水的整体增加趋势,变化速率分别约（0.57±0.07） ℃/10 a和（0.10±0.05） mm/d/100 a。春、秋、冬季升温趋势强,而夏季升温趋势较弱。北冰洋沿岸地区升温速率最大,局地可超过1.0 ℃/10 a。③降水的增加趋势在秋季最大。西伯利亚降水的增加与局地升温有很好的对应关系,其中秋季西伯利亚东部平均和极端降水的增加趋势可达热力学约束的8 %/K。④夏季气温日较差没有显著的变化趋势,春季阿拉斯加和加拿大北部地区的气温日较差呈显著增大趋势,其他区域则以减小趋势为主。气温年较差在北欧、阿拉斯加和加拿大北部呈减小趋势,在西伯利亚西部和东部呈增加趋势。无论冬夏,温度最小值的升高趋势比最大值更显著;冬季温度最小值的升高趋势比夏季更显著。研究表明,地表升温是北极陆地局地降水增加的重要驱动因素,不同区域降水变化的差异则可能与环流变化有关;观测台站数量的减少对降水趋势的监测有显著影响;ERA-Interim可作为北极地区观测分析资料的重要补充,特别在台站稀疏地区和台站数量减少的时段,ERA-Interim可提供一致和可信的气候变化信息。     

柴达木盆地气温降水的长序列变化及与水资源关系

根据柴达木盆地8个气象观测站点1960年-2009年共50年的逐月平均气温及降水量资料,综合运用线性趋势分析及Mann-Kendall趋势检验等气象统计分析方法对柴达木盆地气温及降水的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明在过去的50年里,柴达木盆地经历了明显的升温过程,且增温幅度越来越大,特别是进入20世纪90年代,总的升温幅度在0.5℃/10a左右,远大于同期全球的升温幅度;柴达木盆地降水也略有上升,变化幅度6.2mm/10a左右。从空间分布上看,柴达木盆地气温增幅从东到西逐渐增高,而降水倾向率则逐渐减小。季节分布上,盆地内冬季的气温升温幅度最为明显,增温幅度达0.72℃/10a左右,降水倾向率则夏季最大,达3.4mm/10a。累积距平曲线及Mann-Kendall趋势突变检验综合分析表明,柴达木盆地气温在20世纪80年代有一个明显的增温过程,增温起点在1987年左右。气温、降水的变化也在一定程度上影响到水资源量的变化,相关分析表明,地表水资源量与降水呈显著相关关系,但与气温关系不明显。另外,上一年降水也对地表水资源量有一定的影响。     

The 'Book of Life' in the press: comparing German and Irish media discourse on human genome research

The essay compares German and Irish media coverage of human genome research in the year 2000, using qualitative and quantitative frame analysis of a print media corpus. Drawing from a media-theoretical account of science communication, the study examines four analytic dimensions: (1) the influence of global and national sources of discourse; (2) the nature of elaboration on important themes; (3) the extent of societal participation in discourse production; (4) the cultural conditions in which the discourse resonates. The analysis shows that a global discursive package, emphasizing claims of scientific achievement and medical progress, dominates media coverage in both countries. However, German coverage is more extensive and elaborate, and includes a wider range of participants. Irish coverage more often incorporates the global package without further elaboration. These finding indicate that the global package is 'localized' differently due to national patterns of interests, German participation in human genome research, traditions of media coverage, and the domestic resonance of the issue.     

海洋负排放——基于地球系统科学思维的海洋科技变革

面对全球持续变暖的现实趋势,对比分析地球历史事件,历经了30余年的全球变暖主因之争即将画上句号。当前全球气候变暖国际共识已经形成,直面问题、寻求解决方案成为当务之急,对我国及“一带一路”沿海国家而言,化解“开发”与“保护”这对矛盾就是关键。文章在上述分析的基础上,提出了基于“地球系统科学”思维的海洋科技变革理念和符合业务系统性管理的中国方案——海洋负排放,即合情合理合法地干预海洋、利用海洋应对气候变暖,并在这个过程中改善已经变化了的海洋环境、保护生态系统、促进可持续发展,加快实现人与自然和谐共生现代化。     

研发投资中的媒体角色：基于央企EVA考核的研究

新闻媒体报道对管理层代理行为的影响存在压力效应和声誉效应两种机制。然而,现有关于媒体报道与研发投资关系的研究表明,媒体报道主要通过压力效应减少研发投资。本文以2010年实施的《中央企业负责人经营业绩考核暂行办法》（即经济增加值考核）为自然实验,采用差分法进行检验,发现相对于不受此项制度影响的非央企,央企实行经济增加值考核后,由于经理人的短期业绩压力减少,媒体报道的声誉效应开始凸显,媒体报道对研发投资的影响由考核前的显著负相关变为考核后的显著正相关;央企EVA考核带来的媒体声誉效应在市场化程度更高的地区更明显。这一结果一方面有助于从激励机制的视角深入媒体报道影响公司治理的研究,另一方面有助于从媒体这一外部治理机制的视角丰富高管激励经济后果的研究。     

气候变化的科学背景研究

近百年来,地球气候正经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。这种全球性的气候变暖,是由自然的气候波动和人类活动增强的温室效应共同引起的。我国的气候变化趋势与全球气候变化的总趋势基本一致。未来50-100年全球和我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展。     

Antecedents and consequences of social media fatigue

Prior literature suggests that social media users are increasingly experiencing social media fatigue. Only recently have scholars undertaken empirical studies to investigate its antecedents and outcomes to better understand the impact of fatigue on social media users. To further this understanding, the present study has conducted a cross-sectional survey with 1552 users. The Stress-Strain-Outcome (SSO) theoretical framework is applied to examine if privacy concerns, self-disclosure, parental mediation strategies, and decrement in academic performance due to social media use correlate with social media fatigue. Two forms of fatigue are considered, namely, fatigue due to social networking site (SNS) and mobile instant messaging (MIM) use. The study results suggest that privacy concerns, self-disclosure, parental encouragement and worry significantly and positively correlate with SNS and MIM fatigue. Parental permission and parental monitoring are either not or lowly associated with fatigue. In addition to this, SNS and MIM fatigue positively correlated with the tendency to experience academic decrement due to social media use. The antecedents and consequences of social media fatigue were similar for SNS and MIM users. Moreover, students perceived their parents to be more open to their MIM use, and they had higher self-disclosure in MIM than in SNS. The study concludes with significant implications for practitioners, policy makers as well as service designers.     

Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change

This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.     

1900年以来贝加尔湖水位变化及其原因分析

水位变化作为湖泊水文过程和水量平衡的动态反映,是湖泊生态环境的重要影响因素。全球最大的淡水湖——贝加尔湖,在自然变化与人为活动的双重影响下,过去100多年水位表现出较大的年内、年际和多年变化。贝加尔湖水位变化与入湖径流量变化密切相关,与贝加尔湖最大支流色楞格河的径流量变化较为一致。气候变暖带来的气温上升和降水减少使得入湖径流量减少,贝加尔湖水位下降。人类活动对贝加尔湖水位变化影响表现在两个方面：一方面,全球变暖条件下耕地面积扩张和灌溉用水增加导致贝加尔湖流域用水增加,使得入湖径流量减少,贝加尔湖水位下降;另一方面,1958年伊尔库茨克水电站投入运营之后,贝加尔湖水位变化受到了安加拉河水位顶托的影响。在下游水电站人为调控影响下,贝加尔湖年平均水位升高,年内水位波动幅度增加,年最低和最高水位出现日期推迟。地处全球气候与环境变化敏感区的贝加尔湖,其水位变化对湖泊及周边生态环境影响显著。因此,探究在全球变化背景下贝加尔湖的水位变化及影响因素对保护当地生态环境具有重要意义。     

互联网群体传播中抗拒性认同及其情感化因素研究——基于“中美贸易摩擦”舆论的分析

[研究目的]当今舆论场尤其是互联网舆论场中难以进行有效、冷静的对话和沟通,互联网媒介及群体传播是这种情况出现的重要原因。[研究方法]基于媒介环境学和媒介学的基本思路,并结合“中美贸易摩擦”等舆论案例分析,研究互联网媒介特性及其传播组织形态的群体化转向,以及由此带来合法化认同向抗拒性认同的变化及其影响。[研究结论]研究发现,互联网媒介特性构建了“无组织的组织力量”的群体传播,互联网群体之间的认同是以抗拒性认同为主,而与传统群体相比互联网群体中个体情绪、意见、观点等情感化因素成为了其主要认同机制,情感认同和情绪表达成为互联网舆论场域中的主要特点。     

当代西方公民教育的模式

当代西方公民教育存在认知模式、情感模式和经验模式等三种模式。认知模式是通过课堂将公民知识交给学生;情感模式是培养学生作为公民的情感;经验模式是让学生通过民主参与,获得作为公民的经验。     

信任官媒可以促使企业家投资吗?——来自全国私营企业调查的证据北大核心CSCDCSSCI

本文利用"中国私营企业调查"数据考察了企业主对官方媒体的信任与企业投资决策的关系。研究发现:(1)信任官方媒体可以扩大企业的整体投资,但主要是对长期导向投资有促进作用。这一结论在处理了内生性问题和稳健性检验后仍然成立;(2)从影响机制来看,信任官方媒体可以降低企业家对环境风险的感知并提高对自身地位的感知,从而为制定积极的投资决策创造心理条件。本研究表明强化民营企业家对官方媒体的信任是激励企业投资的有效路径。因此,应进一步加强官方媒体传递政策信息的作用,缓解非市场因素导致的信息不对称问题,为扩大民营企业投资创造有利的信息环境。     

气候变化对中国主要农作物秸秆资源的影响

生物质能在缓解能源紧张,降低气候变化影响方面具有广阔的发展前景。农作物秸秆作为其丰富重要的原料之一,它的有效开发和利用,将对我国生物质资源的综合利用有重要影响。气候变化会影响农作物秸秆产量,本研究利用CERES作物模型模拟了基本气候BS情景下(1961年-1990年)和SRES温室气体排放方案下B2情景的(2011年-2100年)我国三大粮食作物水稻、小麦、玉米的秸秆生产量,分析并预测了未来气候变化对其秸秆生产量的影响,结果表明:①作物秸秆生产总量表现为先降低(2020s)后增加(2050s、2080s)的趋势,其中水稻的秸秆单产和总量将下降,而小麦和玉米的秸秆单产、总量则有增加趋势,尤其是小麦增加幅度更大;②未来气候变化将增大作物秸秆生产总量的年际波动,影响秸秆利用量的稳定性;③华北地区是未来三大作物秸秆总量增加的主要区域,有利于秸秆资源的开发和利用,而东北的东部地区秸秆总量表现为大幅度的降低。本文成果属初步研究,存在一定的不确定性,今后需要继续深入探讨,逐步降低研究中的不确定性。     

Blockchain technology awareness on social media: Insights from twitter analytics

PurposeThis study investigates the affective technology acceptance model applied to the case of blockchain through Twitter text mining.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis focuses on mapping the acceptance drivers of the blockchain technology by visualizing the users perception constructs through Blockchain hashtags. More than 5000 relevant tweets per day were collected between December 15, 2020, and January 15, 2021. The Kruskal-Wallis and the Mann-Whitney tests were applied over the frequency of the characteristics and the emotions' measurements to validate the research hypotheses.FindingsThe results prove that users show more interest in security, shareability, and decentralization characteristics. Therefore, the blockchain technology usefulness is rather perceived in the informational domain, and the blockchain ease of use is further expressed in smart contracts as a use case. Blockchain benefits are more discussed than the drawbacks among Twitter users. Besides, positive feelings with strong emotions of trust and joy dominate among users. In summary, the results show significant awareness of users towards blockchain technology.OriginalityTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first study that explores the affective technology acceptance model with user-generated content analysis.     

冰冻圈化学：解密气候环境和人类活动的指纹

冰冻圈化学是一门新兴学科,是冰冻圈科学的重要分支。自工业革命以来,人类活动排放的污染物深刻影响了冰冻圈的化学成分,而全球变暖导致的冰冻圈快速退缩,也影响到冰冻圈乃至全球的生物地球化学循环,并产生了显著的气候和环境效应。文章介绍了冰冻圈化学在冰冻圈科学体系中的定位,构建了冰冻圈化学的学科框架;通过举例阐明冰冻圈化学与气候和环境变化及人类活动的联系,特别是冰冻圈化学在全球变化研究中的作用;对当今冰冻圈化学相关研究热点进行了回顾和展望。冰冻圈化学研究的不断深入,将为应对人类所面临的气候和环境问题提供重要科技支撑。     

1971-2012 年青藏高原及周边地区气温变化特征及其海拔敏感性分析

海拔敏感性是当前全球气候变化研究的热点之一,青藏高原作为“世界屋脊”,探讨该区域气候变暖与海拔的关系对全球气候变化研究具有重要的参考意义。本文基于1971-2012年青藏高原及周边地区123个气象站的月平均气温数据,采用Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势分析和突变检验、滑动t检验等方法分析了该地区气温变化的时空分布及其与海拔的关系。结果表明：①1971-2012年研究区年、四季、最热月和最冷月均温均呈现显著上升趋势,但增温幅度空间差异明显,具体表现为中、东部和东北部高,东南部低的态势;②除春季外,研究区增温幅度总体呈现随海拔上升而增加的趋势,且该趋势在青藏高原主体范围内尤为明显,但在不同海拔梯度内存在显著差异,其中海拔2 000~3 000m内增温对海拔的敏感性最强,海拔3 000~4 000m次之,而在海拔4 000m以上区域,增温幅度随海拔增加呈现下降趋势;③年均温的突变年份与海拔存在明显的线性关系,具体表现为：海拔每升高1 000m,突变年份推迟1.1~1.2年（p=0.001）;④青藏高原年均温变化趋势及其海拔敏感性对研究时段起、止年份的选取较为敏感。     

Video as Digital Object: Production and Distribution of Video Content in the Internet Media Ecosystem

The media industry is undergoing comprehensive change due to the shifting audience and consumption patterns fostered by the diffusion of the Internet. This article describes how these changes shape established practices of video production and redefine the cultural categories of video and broadcasting. Drawing on an empirical case study of the practices within the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), the we show the production of video content to be increasingly unbundled and broken down into several smaller processes, which make it possible to manage and recompose in a variety of ways that transcend established institutional divisions and cultural perceptions. At the same time and as a means of accommodating multiplatform content delivery, video distribution is acquiring flexible and mutating formats that further destabilize the perception of video as a self-sufficient cultural form. In this context, video metadata rises to be an important coordinative medium that provides the cognitive resources for identifying and managing video content within and across particular settings and the link through which the operations of media organizations become entangled with the technical landscape of the Internet.     

Inside out and outside in: How the COVID-19 pandemic affects self-disclosure on social media

As social distancing and lockdown orders grew more pervasive, individuals increasingly turned to social media for support, entertainment, and connection to others. We posit that global health emergencies - specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic - change how and what individuals self-disclose on social media. We argue that IS research needs to consider how privacy (self-focused) and social (other-focused) calculus have moved some issues outside in (caused by a shift in what is considered socially appropriate) and others inside out (caused by a shift in what information should be shared for the public good). We identify a series of directions for future research that hold potential for furthering our understanding of online self-disclosure and its factors during health emergencies.