基于灰色理论-马尔可夫模型对畜禽粪便量增长的预测

结合灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫模型构建一种合理的灰色马尔可夫预测模型.按相对值的方法进行状态划分,先用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,再用马尔可夫模型对预测结果进行优化,并将由此建立的灰色马尔可夫模型运用于1997～2005年衡阳地区畜禽粪便数据来预测2006年畜禽粪便量.结果表明,这种模型的预测精度高达98.455 4%,明显优于单独使用GM(1,1)模型的预测结果.     

两种用于城市用水量预测的灰色-神经网络组合模型

为了提高灰色GM(1,1)模型在城市用水量预测中的精度,结合BP神经网络的优点,给出了两种灰色-神经网络组合模型GM-BP1和GM-BP2.模型1利用神经网络对GM(1,1)模型的误差序列进行回归训练,将得到的预测值作为原始误差的修正来减小误差;而模型2由部分数据建立了GM(1,1)模型组,通过神经网络训练得到部分数据GM(1,1)模型组与真实值之间的非线性映射关系,利用这种精准的映射关系来提高预测精度.最后实际算例表明了所给方法是有效的,该组合模型可用于城市用水量的中长期预测.     

基于变周期三角函数—灰色GM(1，1)模型的设备故障间隔时间预测

针对设备故障预测模型难以精确建立的特点,为提高故障间隔时间预测的精确度,提出了变周期三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测方法。该方法在三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)基础上,建立了变周期三角函数—灰色GM(1,1)的组合模型,实现了对设备故障间隔时间的预测;并将预测结果与三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)进行对比,结果表明,采用变周期三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)对故障间隔时间进行预测,其预测结果的相对误差由24.16%降到3.24%,提高了预测结果的精度。     

基于改进灰色模型GM(1,1)的故障间隔时间预测

针对设备故障预测模型难以精确建立的特点,为提高故障间隔时间预测的精确度,提出了变周期三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测方法。该方法在三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)基础上,建立了变周期三角函数—灰色GM(1,1)的组合模型,实现了对设备故障间隔时间的预测;并将预测结果与三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)进行对比,结果表明,采用变周期三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)对故障间隔时间进行预测,其预测结果的相对误差由24.16%降到3.24%,提高了预测结果的精度。     

石家庄市区大气污染物浓度变化特征研究

利用2014-2015年3月SO2,NO2,PM10,PM2.5,CO和臭氧的观测数据,分析了石家庄市主要大气污染物的变化特征.结果表明,臭氧夏季平均浓度值最高;NO2夏季浓度值最低;PM2.5,SO2和CO冬季浓度最高,夏季浓度最低;而PM10浓度春季最高,较为明显的高于其它3个季节.臭氧四季的日变化均呈单峰型,其余五项污染物浓度四季的日变化呈现出"早峰午谷",且夜间出现小高峰.掌握石家庄市大气污染物的变化特征,可为大气环境治理工作与防控措施研究提供科学依据.     

白化微分方程和初始条件同时优化的GM（1,1）模型

根据灰色系统理论的新信息优先原理,本文结合对白化微分方程进行改造,使灰色微分方程和白化微分方程更加匹配,并优化GM（1,1）模型的初始条件得出新的GM（1,1）模型.经过实际数据的模拟和预测,和与原GM（1,1）模型及其他优化模型的对比,发现本文优化的GM（1,1）模型有非常高的模拟精度和预测精度.     

丽江海外旅游人数预测的GM(1,1)模型优化

分析传统灰色GM(1,1)模型存在的缺陷,从数据处理、初值选取与背景值改进三个角度提出一种GM(1,1)模型的综合优化方法.对原始数据进行线性对数-指数函数变换,以预测值与真实值的误差平方和最小原则重选初值,用累加序列拟合曲线积分重构背景值.综合优化的GM(1,1)模型应用于丽江海外旅游人数预测,与传统GM(1,1)模型对比,平均相对误差从2.43%改进为2.07%,关联度检验效果由"不满意"提高到"满意".     

GM(1,1)-ARMA(n,m)预测模型及应用

GM(1,1)模型是以灰色系统理论为基础的预测模型,而ARMA(n,m)是以时间序列为基础的预测模型.由于二模型各具其特点,并各有局限性.但二者能取长补短.文献[1]给出了混合模型GM(1,1)-ARMA(n,m),但在具体预测时由于运算量大,没有合适的计算机处理程序使之显得不方便.本文根据其原理,完善了计算方法,给出了预测公式.经过例子验证,结果是理想的.     

马尔可夫优化下的GM(1,1)模型在建筑安全事故预测研究中的应用

建筑业安全事故方面的数据具有波动性大,规律性弱,公开的数据少等特点。国家住建部发布2010—2019年的建筑业安全事故死亡人数,通过运用单纯的灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫优化下的灰色GM(1,1)模型分别预测出来的结果对比,基于马尔可夫优化下的灰色GM(1,1)模型克服了传统预测模型仅适用于短期预测的缺点,且提高了预测的精度。同时,用该模型对我国2020—2021年建筑业安全事故死亡人数进行预测,并提出合理化的管理建议,推动我国建筑业的平稳健康发展。     

基于Prophet-LSTM模型的PM2.5浓度预测研究

作为衡量空气质量的重要指标,准确预测PM2.5浓度变化尤为重要。提出Prophet和长短期记忆（LSTM）相结合的组合预测模型（Prophet-LSTM）。在模型构建过程中,首先利用Prophet模型的可分解方法,将PM2.5日值浓度序列分解成趋势、周期和随机波动分量|然后对趋势和周期分量建立Prophet模型,对随机波动分量建立LSTM模型|最后将各分量的预测值集成得到PM2.5浓度的预测值。以郑州市PM2.5日值浓度数据为例进行实证分析,结果表明,该组合预测模型相较对比模型能够更好地预测PM2.5日值浓度的变化趋势。     

卡思卡特城堡

It is worthy of noting that, whilst Crookston Castle witnessed the earlier and happier portion of Mary's variegated life,     

不同的吃喝玩乐

一、吃和喝吃苹果 eat an apple, 吃药 take medicine,吃糖 have some sweets,吃饭 have one's meals,吃馆子 dine out,吃惊 be surprised/     

漏洞百出的教育

Many college freshmen arrive woefully unprepared to do college work, and as disadvantaged populations continue to grow, the share of the American work force that has made it through college is expected to plummet. Many experts blame that educational failure not just on high schools but also on colleges. School & College, a special report by The Chronicle, looks at efforts to fix the system. What reforms would better prepare students for college? What should schools and colleges be doing differently? How should state and federal officials help?     

只要努力,不要后悔

There are numbers of crossroads on our long and unpredictable life journey where we totally have no idea about which direction to choose. No matter what our decision is, we should not turn back, but face the music and go ahead instead. I am this kind of girl who always does try without regretting, one example is how I dealt with my love.     

浅谈移民问题

Migration occurs behind a variety of reasons and has a great effect on the whole world. People may migrate in order to improve their economic situation, or in order to escape civil strife, persecution, and environmental disasters. The impact of migration is complex, bringing both benefits anddisadvantages. This paper briefly talks about the causes of migration, the allocation of benefits, and the ways in which individual countries and the international community deal with this important subject.     

Sister Carrie, an Adherent of Desires

Sister Carrie is one of the most controversial characters in American literature.Thought as a "fallen woman" firstly,she was defined as a "new woman" by some critics later. However, by digging into the motivaton behind the whole process of Carrie's "success", the relationship between Carrie and her creator (the author), the social conditions of then American, it can be found that Carrie has never been free-standing on her thought and she has never found her real-sdf even after becoming a famous actress. In a society dominated by mass consumerism Carrie is only an adherent of her own desires. She also is a representative of all those country girls flooded into cities, a symbol and a sacrifice of the urbanization of America in a time countryside was overcome by cities.     

Improvement of one-cycle controller by use of proportional integral differential controller

1.IntroductionOne-cyclecontrolmethod,whichwasproposedaboutonedecadeago[1],hasbecomeanattractivemethodinspecialfieldssuchaspowerfactorcorrection[2-6],switchingamplifiers[7,8],etc.Themainideaofthiscontrollerisbasedonintegrationofdiodevoltageinone-cycleandforcesittobeexactlyequaltothereferencevalue.Themainadvantageofthiscontrollerisitsrealtimeabilitytorejectthevariationofinputvoltage[1].Despitethisgreatability,ithasnogoodperformancesinrejectingofloaddisturbanceandfollowingreferencecommands.Espec…     

库克斯顿城堡

城堡, 是欧洲典型的建筑之一, 每个城堡都有一个美丽的传说或是一段历史。从本期开始, 我们将推出“城堡之旅”, 带各位读者去浏览、观赏欧洲各地的城堡, 开始一段文化与历史的旅途!     

The Reader Response Approach to Teaching of English Literature

During interview with English majors, it was found that a majority of students expressed disappointment with their experience of English literature classes. Students' dislike of learning English literature appears to be the major problem of teaching English literature in China. Reader response approach is a good way to solve this problem. In this paper, I explain the rationale behind the reader response approach, such as its origin, definition, features, assumptions, and strategies. Then I illustrate how reader response approach works as a teaching strategy by presenting several teaching models. At last I evaluate its usefuiness for teachers and present the advantages of reader response approach in Chinese context.