基于PPP融资模式的公路工程项目风险识别研究

公路工程项目实施周期长、施工技术要求高、受环境影响较大,加之PPP融资结构复杂、涉及主体较多,加大了风险管理的难度.文章运用定性与定量分析相结合的方法,通过两个维度五个步骤构建了风险识别系统,强调对关键风险因素的识别,以期对PPP融资模式下公路工程项目的风险识别提供借鉴.     

High-order lateral buckling analysis of submarine pipeline under thermal stress

It is of importance to study and predict the possible buckling of submarine pipeline under thermal stress in pipeline design.Since soil resistance is not strong enough to restrain the large deformation of pipeline,high-order buckling modes occur very easily.Analytical solutions to high-order buckling modes were obtained in this paper.The relationships between buckling temperature and the amplitude or the wavelength of buckling modes were established.Analytical solutions were obtained to predict the occurrence and consequence of in-service buckling of a heated pipeline in an oil field.The effects of temperature difference and properties of subsoil on buckling modes were investigated.The results show that buckling will occur once temperature difference exceeds safe temperature;high-order pipeline buckling occurs very easily;the larger the friction coefficients are,the safer the submarine pipeline will be.     

用于海底管线阴极保护的镯式铝基牺牲阳极制造技术

用于海底管线阴极保护的镯式铝基牺牲阳极,由于其必须适应海底这种高腐蚀性的服役条件,所以对它的制造技术含量要求是很高的。通过对海底管线的阴极保护腐蚀保护系统、镯式阳极的模具设计、浇注方法、质量控制、镯式阳极的安装技术等的论述,突显出镯式铝基牺牲阳极制造工艺技术的特点与新点,以实现海底管线有效防腐之目的。     

海底(子母)管道在波流作用下水动力载荷的实验研究

本文是在研究组对“波流作用下海底管道水动力系数 C_D、C_M、C_L 值的确定和选取”、“带压块海底管道上的水动力载荷实验研究”和“部分埋设海底管道渡流作用时的水动力效应实验研究”等项目研究成果的基础上,以 JZ20-2海底输气管道工程的为背景,对 JZ20-2的子-母管在波流作用下水动力载荷的确定进行的实验研究。同样,子-母管的水动力系数 C_D、C_M 与 KC 数明显相关,随KC 数的增大而减小;水动力系数 C_M 多在1—4之间变化。实验中对规则波加拖厢造流与不规则波自然加流的试验结果,二者比较—致。因而建议在工程设计中,可直接按规则波加拖厢造流的方法和设备,并偏于保守。     

Vertical Upheaval Buckling of Submarine Buried Heated Pipelines with Initial Imperfection

In this paper,a theoretical solution of vertical buckling is proposed with regard to the typical initial imperfection cases of submarine pipelines.Analytical tools are applied to predicting the occurrence and consequence of inservice buckling of a buried heated pipeline in Bohai Gulf.An evaluation is performed to ensure the pipeline structural integrity during operation under loading conditions.Different protection measures are proposed and their validities are analyzed.Analyses show that for the same magnitude of initial imperfection,the upheaval buckling of pipeline with isolated prop model is the most likely to occur.The empathetic model represents a special sub-case of continuous prop model,and the calculated buckle temperature is between the first stage and the second stage of post-upheaval buckling of continuous prop model.And the larger the initial imperfection,the less the axial force required for the upheaval buckling.Meanwhile,it can be seen that a peak point appears on the curves of temperature difference against buckling amplitude for small initial imperfection.Besides,trenching-burial is one kind of protection measures preventing the pipeline from thermal upheaval.The covered depth-to-diameter ratio depends on the design conditions and subsoil properties.For the given pipeline in this paper,the covered depth-to-diameter ratio is recommended to be 5.     

高等教育-人口-经济系统协调发展定量分析

通过构建高等教育-人口-经济系统协调发展评价的指标体系,选取全国31个省市自治区2005年和2010年的截面数据,采用主成分分析、有序度、协调度模型测算等方法,着重从发展水平、单个系统有序度及系统间协调度三个维度进行定量分析。结果表明:区域高等教育发展差异显著,高等教育、经济系统的发展水平相对高于人口系统;各系统的整体有序度略有提升,经济系统有序度最高,高等教育次之,人口系统最低;区域三系统间的协调度差距悬殊,高等教育-经济系统的协调度明显高于高等教育-人口系统的协调度。建议从高等教育与经济、高等教育与人口及高等教育-人口-经济系统的协调演化三方面考虑消除不协调因素,促进高等教育与人口、经济的良性循环和协调发展。     

System development for storm surge hazard assessment based on WebGIS for Tianjin Binhai New Area

It is imperative to develop a risk assessment system for quickly predicting storm surge disaster due to the vulnerability of Tianjin Binhai New Area. The flood routing model with user-defined breaches was firstly established based on the seed spread algorithm in order to achieve a rapid forecasting of storm surge flood information. Furthermore, fuzzy mathematics was utilized to identify the storm disaster grade, and the hazard mapping was conducted to visually obtain the hazard spatial and temporal distribution. Finally, the flood routing visualization method was proposed based on numerical simulation of storm surge to achieve the reappearance scene of dynamic evolution process. The developed system can play a vital role in the management and decision-making of sea dyke mitigation engineering in Tianjin Binhai New Area.     

基于GIS的石油天然气管道信息管理系统设计

为实施管道安全风险评估,需要收集、存储和处理大量的管道信息,为此开发一套全国石油天然气管道安全管理信息系统.该系统在Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0环境下设计了一系列可视化界面并通过Access数据库解决了管道地理信息和属性信息的动态管理,在电子地图上利用MapInfo MapX 5.0控件实现了管线图形的动态管理,并通过管线内插节点解决了大跨度管线图形的正常显示及MapX节点编辑模式下系统异常的问题.该系统已被用户用于石油天然气管道信息管理,效果良好.     

基于GIS的管道风险评价分析与决策初步研究

GIS技术能直接提供一种交互式的、可视化的决策支持 ,已广泛地应用于各种分析和决策过程中。本文中作者首先对风险分析的各种方法进行了必要的分析 ,说明了在管道风险分析中GIS所能提供的技术支持 ,然后对建立一个基于GIS的管道风险分析与决策信息支持系统进行了初步研究     

海底管道水动力和在位稳定性研究的近代进展

海洋工程中海底管道为保证其正常运行和结构生存期的安全,直接与海底管道水动力和在位稳定性研究密切相关的。本文着重叙述了70年代、80年代国外对接近于海底、部分埋入海底和海底敞口浅沟内管道的水动力和在位稳定性方面的研究结果,并就进一步开展这方面研究进行讨论。     

AHP软件系统建模及应用

层次分析法 (AHP)是将模糊问题从定性转化为定量分析的有效工具 ,本文讨论其模型的建立与求解算法 ,并以人才素质评估软件系统 (TMES)的设计与开发为例 ,阐述该软件系统的应用     

商业银行风险管理框架的国际比较研究

提出商业银行风险管理的整体框架,并就风险管理的政策与流程、技术与系统、组织与文化进行叙述。分析风险管理组织架构的三个层次,对国际上对银行风险管理组织架构进行比较研究,提出在组织架构方面应遵循的基本原则。     

Seismic reliability and rehabilitation decision of water distribution system

in order to evaluate the seismic reliability of water distribution system and make rehabilitation decisions correspondingly, it is necessary to assess pipelines damage states and conduct functional analysis based on pipe leak- age model. When an earthquake occurred, the water distribution system kept serving with leakage. By adding a virtual node at the centre of the pipeline with leakage, an efficient approach to pressure-driven analysis was developed for simulating a variety of low relative scenarios, and a hydraulic leakage model was also built to perform hydraulic analy- sis of the water supply network with seismic damage. Then the mean-first-order-second-moment method was used to analyse the seismic serviceability of the water distribution system. According to the assessment analysis, pipes that were destroyed or in heavy leakage were isolated and repaired emergently, which improved the water supply capability of the network and would constitute the basis for enhancing seismic reliability of the system. The proposed approach to seismic reliability and rehabilitation decision analysis on water distribution system is demonstrated effective through a case study.     

回归分析在高校教师满意度分析评价中的应用

高校教师满意度是影响高等学校教育目标实现的重要因素。利用回归分析对影响高校教师满意度的因素进行定量描述,介绍了一种更为科学的建立高校教师工作满意度分析评价模型的方法。     

高校校园安全保障机制的研究——基于风险管理视角

提升全员风险意识,加强对危及校园安全的多种因素的识别能力,建立健全安全管理的机制体制,加强安全教育和校园安全文化建设,是新时期新条件下高校良性发展的必备条件。从对风险的界定和风险管理的理论基础出发,在对校园安全现状进行了分析总结后,提出了优化高校安全保障机制、做好安全管理工作的建议。     

日本职业教育面临的挑战——亚洲区域内国际比较视野中的研究

运用寺田盛纪1998年创立的“二历史轴、三或四维度”职业教育比较研究模型,对日本的职业教育和培训进行分析后认为,要想应对日本职业教育和培训面临的挑战,必须采取以下措施:为普通教育和职业教育学生建立平等的职业生涯发展途径;建立职业资格框架;建立高等职业教育体系并提升其地位;改善中等职业教育;为促进劳动力的国际流动,亚洲国家要建立一体化的中等职业教育体系.     

基于逻辑统计特征描述的软件测试方法研究

对软件测试建立动态运行模型,提出基于逻辑统计特征描述的软件测试方法。通过软件运行的统计特征对软件运行状态在可行域中的风险进行评估,从而得到软件测试的一个量化安全指标。最后从工程角度提出了有现实意义的软件测试框架,并从数学上证明了该框架的有效性。有一个隐含前提,就是程序应该是实际系统的拟合,程序功能模块的划分对实际系统所具有的逻辑约束与自身稳定性不构成破坏。     

企业财务风险预警体系的研究

建立财务风险预警体系,这将是企业财务管理发展的新趋势,因此,财务风险预警是现代企业进行战略管理的重要方式之一。文章就如何分析研究企业财务风险、找到帮助企业做出财务风险预警判断的具体方法进行探讨和研究,从而正确理解建立财务风险预警体系的意义和财务风险产生的原因,构建企业财务风险预警体系,帮助企业采取应对策略,避免产生较大的危机和损失。     

把好学位论文关 提高研究生培养质量

本文对工科院研究生学位论文存在的问题进行分析，提出了要打破学科壁垒，加强研究生导师队伍的建设，建立和完善学位和研究生教育质量的保证体系，培养高层次，创新型建设人才，为我国科技论文的产出和科技实力的再发展培养后备力量。     

Higher education and attainment of policy goals: Interpretations for efficiency indicators in Israel

This study concerns identification of policy aims and goals in Israeli Higher Education (HE) and an analysis of efficiency indicators to determine the extent and nature of HE policy goal attainment at the Israeli universities. Overall, these indicators, be they quantitative or qualitative, point to major developments in the Israeli HE system in both national and international comparative terms. The aims and related efficiency performance indicators identified and used in this study are normative and their analysis follows conceptualizations of efficiency assessment. They are in line with orientations of quality as bound up with values and fundamental aims relating to fitness for purpose (Ball 1985; Williams 1991; Barnett 1989, 1992; vanVught 1994) and pertain mainly to the individual universities' perceptions and priorities. The analysis model also adopts conceptual approaches used in studies of HE quality by the Planning and Budgeting Committee of the Israeli HE Council, as well as those conducted in England, Scotland, and the Netherlands, and by the OECD. As such, the analysis model as well as the findings identified in this study lend themselves to comparative HE policy analysis in a global perspective.