MASS MEDIA AND POLITICAL OUTSPOKENNESS IN HONG KONG: LINKING THE THIRD-PERSON EFFECT AND THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE

This study analyzes the impact of perceptions of the opinionsof others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Two relatedtheories, the third-person effect and the spiral of silence,are tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino-Britishdispute over Hong Kong's political future. To estimate the potentialinfluence of perceived public opinion on political outspokennessduring this political crisis, a representative telephone surveyof 660 respondents in Hong Kong was conducted in November 1993. As hypothesized by the third-person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports about the Sino-British dispute onothers were found to be consistently greater than perceptionsof influence on self. Similar to previous findings, respondentswith a higher level of education were more likely to believethat the mass media influence others more than themselves. Thestudy also found empirical support for the spiral of silencehypothesis. Politically unconcerned respondents were less willingto voice their political opinions publicly when they perceivedthe majority opinion not to be on their side. Findings alsoindicate that the third-person effect indirectly influencesthe spiral of silence process through its impact on perceptionsof public opinion.     

REFERENCE GROUPS, OPINION INTENSITY, AND PUBLIC OPINION EXPRESSION

Noelle-Neumann's work on the spiral of silence (1974, 1977,1984) has been one of the most significant theoretical developmentsin public opinion research of the past quarter-century. Thetheory is well known among public opinion researchers, and anumber of research efforts have been directed toward examiningspecific parts of the theory. However, the theory is difficultto test, incorporating psychological, social-psychological andsociological variables, including psychological variables andsweeping changes in the social climate of opinion (cf. Noelle-Neumann1984). This study investigated the role of opinion thresholds, socialgroups and weighing of others' opinions in opinion expression.Using Krassa's (1988) computer simulation and modificationsof Noelle-Neumann's (1974) spiral of silence as a base, we testseveral theoretical modifications to the spiral of silence modelusing data gathered from people living in or near six nationalparks in Canada. Primary interest is on the ability of opinionthresholds, social group and weighing of others' opinions topredict the expression of opinion for particular issues.     

THE INFLUENCE OF PERCEPTIONS OF MEDIA INFLUENCE: THIRD PERSON EFFECTS AND THE PUBLIC EXPRESSION OF OPINIONS

This paper explores the role of perceptions of the opinionsof others as they relate to the formation of public opinion.Two interrelated theories involving such perceptions, the thirdperson effect and the spiral of silence, are tested in the contextof public opinion regarding divestment of financial interestsin South Africa. As hypothesized by the third person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports on others were found to be consistentlygreater than perceptions of influence on self. Findings werestrongly supportive of this component of the ‘third personeffect’ hypothesis. Perceptions of the opinions of otherswere also explored in relation to respondents' willingness toexpress their opinions publicly. As suggested by the spiralof silence theory, respondents were found to be more willingto express their opinions publicly when they perceived a trendin support of their viewpoint, or when there was a greater perceivedlikelihood of achieving success for their issue position. The size of the effect produced from joining these two processesis moderated by the role of issue salience. People perceivingdivestment as a highly important issue are more likely to ascribegreater media influence to others than to themselves, but theirwillingness to express their opinions publicly is least likelyto be influenced by perceptions of the climate of opinion.     

Talking About Genetically Modified (GM) Foods in South Korea: The Role of the Internet in the Spiral of Silence Process

Using the issue of genetically modified foods, this study examines how the Internet may affect the spiral of silence phenomenon in South Korea. More specifically, we explore whether the Internet has created a social environment, where people can exchange opinions more freely without being fearful of social isolation. Analyzing data from an online survey, we first examine whether the Internet can play a role as a source of information, from which people assess the climates of public opinion. Also examined is whether the opinions of netizens can comprise another form of opinion climate, exerting pressure on one's willingness to speak out. Finally, we explore whether expressing an opinion on the Internet is subject to the pressure of opinion climates. Findings suggest that the Internet may play an important role in shaping people's perceptions of opinion climates. Perceived opinion congruence with other people were significantly associated with one's willingness to participate in an online forum, indicating that expressing an opinion on the Internet may be subject to the spiral of silence effect. We conclude that the Internet in South Korea may not have helped to diminish the social pressure that keeps citizens from expressing a minority view.     

POPULARITY IN A FREEFALL: MEASURING A SPIRAL OF SILENCE AT THE END OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY

This study measures a spiral of silence in the context of actualopinion change during President George Bush's popularity declinein one of his political strongholds. Willingness of voters topublicly express their opinions about Bush were analyzed overthree pre-election surveys (N = 1,800) sponsored by a prominentlocal newspaper in Orange County, California. Respondents wereasked whether or not they would be willing to be reinterviewedby a reporter and have their names and views published in thepaper. The hypothesis that Bush supporters would be less willingthan others to agree to be reinterviewed during the period inwhich the president's ratings were dropping sharply is supported.This trend was most in evidence at the beginning of the presidentialcampaign, when Bush's ratings were in the steepest decline.These findings indicate the importance of actual opinion shiftsin spiral of silence research, and suggest several issues forfuture research on opinion change.     

沉默的螺旋与意见表达——以“抵制家乐福”事件为例

本研究以抵制家乐福事件为调查议题,对沉默的螺旋理论的关键命题进行了一次中国大陆情境下的实证检验。研究在较大程度上证实了孤立恐惧对意见表达的影响,同时亦检验了交流忧虑、议题重要性、自我效能感等因素对意见表达的影响。研究结果证明了对意见表达进行概念分解操作的必要,发言和沉默并非非此即彼的关系。     

A Cross-cultural Test of the Spiral of Silence Theory in Singapore and the United States1

This study examines the influence of individual-level characteristics on the spiral of silence effect in two countries, Singapore and the United States, making it the first cross-cultural test of the theory and thereby addressing a gap in the literature highlighted by Schefule and Moy (International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12, 2000, 3–28). In two identical, representative telephone polls of 668 adults conducted in Singapore and 412 adults in Washington, DC, respondents were asked to indicate how likely they would be to discuss publicly two controversial issues: interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals. The proposed model for predicting outspokenness adds a variety of new predictors, such as culturally influenced self-concepts, fear of isolation, and communication apprehension, along with other more traditional predictors of outspokenness, such as a person's perception of the opinion climate, media exposure, issue salience, and demographics. The findings provide partial support for the spiral of silence hypothesis in Singapore, but not in the United States. Respondents’ perception of the future opinion climate in Singapore interacted with issue salience to influence their level of outspokenness; American respondents did not exhibit such an interaction effect. In both countries, however, outspokenness was associated with respondents’ perceived importance of the issue and their communication apprehension. Media exposure was not associated with outspokenness in either country.     

Public opinion and political outspokenness in pre‐1997 Hong Kong: Two tests of the spiral of silence theory

This study analyses the impact of perceptions of the opinions of others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Based on the results of two representative telephone surveys conducted in Hong Kong in 1993 and 1995, the spiral of silence theory is tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino‐British dispute over Hong Kong's political future and the 1995 Legislative Council election. As hypothesized, respondents in both surveys were more willing to voice their political opinions publicly when they perceived the majority opinion to be on their side, or when they perceived a trend in support of their own political viewpoint. However, this effect was observed only for respondents who were not much concerned about either issue. People's political outspokenness was primarily boosted by higher issue salience, more exposure and attention to television news and news magazines, and higher political interest and efficacy.     

Reluctance to Talk About Politics in Face-to-Face and Facebook Settings: Examining the Impact of Fear of Isolation,Willingness to Self-Censor,and Peer Network Characteristics

This study examines citizens’ willingness to publicly express support for a political party or candidate face-to-face and on Facebook during an election. Findings from a survey showed that fear of social isolation (FSI) exhibited a negative indirect effect on public expression about the election through willingness to self-censor (WTSC) for both communication environments. The indirect effect through WTSC was contingent on perceived political disagreement within homophilous peer networks contributing to a hostile opinion climate. Moreover, in face-to-face interactions those with higher levels of FSI were less likely to express support in heterogeneous offline networks with high levels of disagreement but were more likely to do so in homophilous networks that share similar political views. The study demonstrates the utility of combining a dispositional approach and friendship-based reference groups to the examination of key spiral of silence mechanisms at the individual level.     

网络舆情研究进展及其主题关联关系路径分析

[目的/意义]梳理网络舆情的研究进展,有助于厘清网络舆情研究的知识基础、传导规律、预警机制和治理策略等之间的内在联系和主题演化路径。[方法/过程]首先分析网络舆情的理论知识基础,然后结合现有研究,按照内容递进的规律将网络舆情研究分为影响因素、传导路径、预警机制以及引导治理策略四个主题,采用内容分析法和社会网络分析法对网络舆情进行主题关联关系分析和演化路径探索。[结果/结论]结果表明,生命周期理论、认知定势理论、沉默的螺旋、群体极化理论、蝴蝶效应理论和治理理论常作为网络舆情研究的理论知识基础,网络媒介环境、社会结构压力、网民心理、触发性事件、有效动员和社会控制力量六个因素被视为网络舆情演化的重要影响要素,且网络舆情、舆情事件、社交媒体、利益相关者、大数据和信息传播等六个主题与其他研究内容关系较为密切,在主题演化路径中发挥着重要桥接作用。     

“Pick and choose” opinion climate: How browsing of political messages shapes public opinion perceptions and attitudes

ABSTRACT

High-choice media environments allow people to cocoon themselves with like-minded messages (confirmation bias), which could shape both individual attitudes and perceived prevalence of opinions. This study builds on motivated cognition and spiral of silence theory to disentangle how browsing political messages (both selective exposure as viewing full articles and incidental exposure as encountering leads only) shapes perceived public opinion and subsequently attitudes. Participants (N?=?115) browsed online articles on controversial topics; related attitudes and public opinion perceptions were captured before and after. Multi-level modeling demonstrated a confirmation bias. Both selective and incidental exposure affected attitudes per message stance, with stronger impacts for selective exposure. Opinion climate perceptions mediated selective exposure impacts on attitudes.     

Fear of Isolation and Perceived Affordances: The Spiral of Silence on Social Networking Sites Regarding Police Discrimination

The spiral of silence (SoS) framework elaborates the factors that determine whether individuals are willing to express their opinions in public. Although previous scholarship has examined differences in between face-to-face and computer-mediated communication, research studies have rarely tested how perceived affordances of the channel influence whether individuals express opinions or self-censor. In this study (N = 399), we examine several propositions of SoS within the context of discussing police discrimination on Facebook. To extend the theory’s relevance to social networking sites, we examined how users’ perceptions of network association, social presence, anonymity, and persistence related to opinion expression. Findings indicate support for some of the theory’s original tenets, as well as the role of multiple perceived affordances in determining whether people will express an opinion to their online social network. We discuss the implications for measuring and understanding political expression and silencing on social media as well as offline.     

Silent Majority: Childhood Vaccinations and Antecedents to Communicative Action

The topic of childhood vaccinations has received much news media attention recently, prompting scholars to examine how the public has responded. In light of this news, and the deep divide that seems to exist between parents who support childhood vaccinations and those who do not, this study examines how and why individuals may involve themselves in communication about vaccinations, particularly on social media or in other online environments. Focusing on the concept of communicative action and drawing from spiral of silence and other research, a survey of mothers (N = 455) found that those who do not support childhood vaccinations are more likely to engage in communication about the issue, including information seeking, attending, forefending, permitting, forwarding, and sharing. In addition, issue importance and affective and cognitive involvement help drive communicative action regarding childhood vaccinations, which could affect public opinion or public perceptions of the issue. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

How opinion polls affect voting in Bangkok's gubernatorial election

In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias.     

Can Inoculation Work Against the Spiral of Silence? A Study of Public Opinion on the Future of Taiwan

This study explores the relationships between inoculation andthe spiral of silence theories. Inoculation strategies wereemployed to mitigate the process of the spiral of silence, especiallyfocusing on resistance to counter-attitudinal attack, attitudinalconfidence, willingness to speak out, fear of isolation, andchange of attitude. A field experiment was conducted in a two-wavesurvey of randomly sampled citizens in Taiwan. The issue employedwas Taiwan's political future in relation to the People's Republicof China. Results are consistent with major inoculation findingsand support the study's core hypotheses: Inoculation treatmentsenhanced people's resistance to attitude change. People whoreceived an inoculation pre-treatment, as compared with thosewho did not, became more confident in their attitude over time,more willing to speak out on behalf of one's attitudes, andmore likely to overtly resist the counter-attitudinal attemptsof others to influence oneself. Received for publication November 21, 2002. Revision received August 14, 2006. Accepted for publication November 28, 2004.     

Civic Attachment in the Aftermath of September 11

After September 11, 2001, many theorists saw indications of a surge in social capital, indicated by increased trust and civic engagement. This surge may have been linked to factors such as rally effects and the spiral of silence, as well as to behaviors like participation and conversation. This study analyzes panel data collected shortly after September 11 and again several months later. Predictors of civic attachment were very different from Wave 1 to Wave 2; for instance, traditional predictors of civic attachment, like participation and discussion, were significant only for the 2nd data collection. We argue that surges in attachment and other attitudes after September 11 were short-lived and distinct from standard patterns of social capital.     

基于超网络的微博相似度及其在微博舆情主题发现中的应用

[目的/意义]准确地计算微博相似度可以提高微博主题挖掘效率,对舆情治理、保障信息安全具有实践意义。针对微博文本语义稀疏、高维的问题,提出一种融入微博非文本特征的超边相似度算法。[方法/过程]分析微博舆情发生机制,利用超网络模型表示微博舆情主题形成过程,通过计算各层子网相似度及各层子网对主题形成的贡献度构建超边相似度算法。[结果/结论]研究发现,论文所提出的相似度方法有助于提升微博舆情信息的主题聚类效果,特别是对于文字性表述相似程度高的微博信息,具有明显的主题区分性。     

The spiral of silence: examining how cultural predispositions,news attention,and opinion congruency relate to opinion expression

This study examines new explanatory predictors behind the spiral of silence theory, using the issue of legalization of same-sex marriage in Singapore as the context of study. Our results show that fear of isolation and saving face were negatively associated with individuals' willingness to express their opinion on the issue, whereas news attention and issue salience were positively associated. Also, fear of isolation was negatively associated with individuals' willingness to offer a rationale for their opinion, whereas news attention and issue salience were positively associated. Power distance had no effects on outspokenness. Notably, news attention moderated the influence of fear of isolation and saving face on public outspokenness.     

论图书馆员沉默消解的进路:理念、机制与规范

图书馆当下面临的"馆员沉默"问题,具有较大的消极意义。文章首先确立其基本内涵,而后从三个方面寻求消解沉默的方式方法。一是理念,即通过馆员权利意识自觉增强解决沉默问题的内在自信。二是机制,即通过图书馆治理机制的设计践行价值理念。三是规范,即强调法规、条例和自治规定中自治规定的重要性,赋予馆员行为的正当性,保障体制改革成果。     

微博舆情传播周期中不同传播者的主题挖掘与观点识别

[目的/意义] 探索微博舆情传播周期中不同传播者关注的舆情热点和传播内容的主要观点,进而发现舆情传播的特点和规律,为舆情分析与决策提供依据。[方法/过程] 以特定舆情事件的事实文本数据为来源,以生命周期理论和LDA方法为指导,设计研究流程与构建研究模型,对微博舆情事件中不同传播者的话题进行主题研究,其中包括主题抽取和结果语义标注、各阶段的不同传播者主题的语义分析、基于时间维度的舆情主题观点识别与刻画。[结果/结论] 研究发现,论文所提出的研究模型能够挖掘出舆情传播周期中不同传播者的主题结构、观点脉络以及特征,研判出分布在文字当中有关联性的、代表性的、重要的词语。同时,结论中还发现微博中的官媒、大众媒体发布信息中的话题和用户谈论的热点话题具有明显的差异性。