Determinants of possession of the ball in soccer

Abstract

In research on the importance of the possession of the ball in soccer, little attention has been paid to its determinants. Using data from 170 matches of the 2003 – 2004 Spanish Soccer League, we explain why differences in the possession of the ball among teams are so great. In particular, four variables are examined: evolving match status (i.e. whether the team is winning, losing or drawing), venue (i.e. playing at home or away), and the identities of the team and the opponent in each match. Results of linear regression analysis show that these four variables are statistically significant and together explain most of the variance in possession. In short, home teams have more possession than away teams, teams have more possession when they are losing matches than when winning or drawing, and the identity of the opponent matters – the worse the opponent, the greater the possession of the ball. Combinations of these variables could be used to develop a model that predicts possession in soccer.     

Ball possession effectiveness in men's and women's elite basketball according to situational variables in different game periods

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to identify the importance of basketball performance indicators in predicting the effectiveness of ball possessions in men's and women's basketball, when controlling for situational variables and game periods. The sample consisted of 7234 ball possessions, corresponding to 40 games from the Spanish professional leagues. The effects of the predictor variables on successful ball possessions according to game period were analysed using binary logistic regressions. Results from men's teams show interactions with number of passes and ending player during the first five minutes, with starting and ending zone, defensive systems, screens used and possession duration during the middle thirty minutes, and there were interactions with passes used, possession duration and players involved during the last five minutes. Results from women's teams show interactions with starting and ending zone, passes used, defensive systems and ending player during the first five minutes, and with starting and ending zone, and screens used during the middle thirty minutes. The results show no interaction with situational variables in men's basketball, while league stage was important during the middle thirty minutes and last five minutes in women's basketball, whereas match status was only important during the last five minutes.     

得分进攻活动获得球阶段的分析

采用文献资料，调查访谈和数理统计等方法对得分进攻活动获得球阶段进行了分析，发现其存在的特点和规律，并对男子足球运动和女子足球运动间的异同点进行了较为详细的探讨。     

The Most Salient Matches in the History of Premier League Football

What are the most surprising, most impressive and most exciting matches in the history of the highest division of English football? Fans, clubs, critics and broadcasters often attempt to interpret and compare the outcomes of football matches. This can be useful as a means of building a reputation for and interest in a particular club, match or competition. However, such analysis is often subjective with fan bias, personal preference and the prize on offer influencing expectation and interpretation of the results. In this paper statistical measures are developed to identify the most surprising, most impressive and most exciting outcomes from an objective ex post point of view. To achieve this it is assumed that goal scoring in soccer can approximately be considered as a Poisson process. First, the most surprising outcomes are estimated as those with the lowest Poisson probability to occur. Second, the most impressive outcomes are identified by their so-called Skellam percentile position. This measure varies between 0 and 1 and has a close relationship with the p-value in statistical testing. Finally, the most exciting match is identified by measuring the variability in the win expectancy during a match.     

The spillover effect from FDI in the English Premier League

Using data of 1992–2012, this paper considers the spillover effects resulting from the increased flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the English Premier League focusing, in particular, on competitive balance, measures of football productivity and intrafootball spillovers. Results indicate that not only has the competitive balance in football been reduced but that overseas investment has impacted both upon the productivity of the clubs under foreign ownership and those which continue under domestic ownership. The empirical contribution of this paper indicates the relevance and importance of both spillover and FDI theory to that of the football industry.     

The European dilemma: evaluating the implications of UEFA Europa League participation on English Premier League clubs

For clubs qualifying for the UEFA Europa League, participation generates a series of tensions. UEFA has provided financial rewards for those clubs, but with qualification comes additional pressures on playing squads which are often less able to deal with the performative demands of an extra competition, as they generally possess fewer financial resources compared with teams gaining Champions League qualification. This paper evaluates these conflicting tensions. The study takes a detailed quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits for four Premier League clubs that have repeatedly participated in the Europa League over eight seasons. It demonstrates a positive financial benefit of participation, but this is only significant if the club progresses to the later competition stages and has a robust playing squad. This research fills a gap in a lack of analysis based on reliable empirical data as to the impact of participation in this competition on clubs.     

Body composition assessment of English Premier League soccer players: a comparative DXA analysis of first team,U21 and U18 squads

Professional soccer players from the first team (1st team, n = 27), under twenty-one (U21, n = 21) and under eighteen (U18, n = 35) squads of an English Premier League soccer team were assessed for whole body and regional estimates of body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Per cent body fat was lower in 1st team (10.0 ± 1.6) compared with both U21 (11.6 ± 2.5, P = 0.02) and U18 (11.4 ± 2.6, P = 0.01) players. However, this difference was not due to variations (P = 0.23) in fat mass between squads (7.8 ± 1.6 v 8.8 ± 2.1 v 8.2 ± 2.4 kg, respectively) but rather the presence of more lean mass in 1st team (66.9 ± 7.1 kg, P < 0.01) and U21 (64.6 ± 6.5 kg, P = 0.02) compared with U18 (60.6 ± 6.3 kg) players. Accordingly, fat mass index was not different (P = 0.138) between squads, whereas lean mass index was greater (P < 0.01) in 1st team players (20.0 ± 1.1 kg · m^?2) compared with U18 players (18.8 ± 1.4 kg · m^?2). Differences in lean mass were also reflective of higher lean tissue mass in all regions, for example, upper limbs/lower limbs and trunk. Data suggest that training and nutritional interventions for younger players should therefore be targeted to lean mass growth as opposed to body fat loss.     

Technical and physical match performance of teams in the 2018 FIFA World Cup: Effects of two different playing styles

ABSTRACT

In order to investigate the effect of playing styles on the match performance of football teams, data were analysed on 18 technical performance-related variables and 8 physical performance-related variables from 59 matches in the 2018 FIFA World Cup. A k-means cluster analysis was conducted to classify all match observations into two clusters of tactical approach in order to identify the playing styles of teams (characterised as direct-play, possession-play and mixed-play). Separate Poisson regression models were run in the generalised mixed linear modelling to examine the differences in technical and physical performance between teams classified as using different playing styles when facing different opponents. Results showed that possession-play characterised teams achieved higher values in all the variables related to goal scoring, attacking and passing (ES: 0.32 ~ 1.27) and covered more distance in sprints and high-intensity running (ES: 0.33 ~ 0.47) than direct-play characterised teams. Both possession- and direct-play characterised teams achieved higher values in passing, pass accuracy and delivery into the attacking third playing against direct-play characterised teams than playing against possession-play characterised sides (ES: 0.22 ~ 0.98). These findings may provide insights into the establishment of performance profiles of teams with different tactical styles and the development of specific training drills to optimise playing style.     

Goals scored and received in 5vs4 GK game strategy are constrained by critical moment and situational variables in elite futsal

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to identify the importance and meaning of goals using the goalkeeper as an outfield player in elite futsal according to critical and situational variables. The sample consisted of 11,446 actions corresponding to 1,325 matches from the 1^st division Spanish Futsal League during the seasons from 2010 to 2015. Multinomial logistic regression and classification tree multivariate models were used to identify the best predictor variables related to the likelihood of scoring goals, receiving goals, or no goals. Results from Multinomial logistic regression emphasised goals scored in balanced matches and playing with the goalkeeper as an outfield player before the last eight minutes. When the teams were drawing or losing, finished with goals received or without goals. The classification tree results identified a greater likelihood of scoring goals when the teams were winning, in balanced matches, and within the last eight minutes. Conversely, a greater likelihood of suffering goals was observed using the goalkeeper as an outfield player when the teams were losing, in unbalanced matches and in the last eight minutes. The identified trends will allow futsal coaches to recognise the most suitable situations for achieving efficacy when using the goalkeeper as an outfield player strategy.     

关于有球练习密度对足球教学影响的研究

本文以体育系普修足球课的学生为研究对象,采用实验、统计和归纳分析等研究方法,通过课中增加有球练习密度为实验手段,结果发现,增加有球练习密度能明显提高学生学习成绩,其动力主要来源于学生的学习积极性和学生触球次数增加对技能形成的加速。     

Differences in ball speed and accuracy of tennis groundstrokes between elite and high-performance players

Abstract

The main aim of this study was to identify and compare ball speed and hitting accuracy of forehand and backhand groundstrokes between ATP professionals (elite) and high-performance youth players when shots were played cross-court and down the line to a target square. Six elite and seven high-performance tennis players volunteered to participate in the study. A Doppler-radar device and a digital video camera, operating at 120 frames per second, were used to measure ball speed and accuracy of forehand and backhand groundstrokes in the respective situation (cross-court and down the line). The results of 1040 measured groundstrokes indicate that the ball speed of the forehand and the backhand ground stroke was higher in the elite group when analysing (1) all valid shots, (2) the six fastest shots, and (3) the six most accurate shots (all P < 0.05). In addition, all players achieved a higher forehand speed compared with their backhand when balls were directed cross-court (P < 0.01). The participants demonstrated similar ability when considering accuracy of their groundstrokes (P > 0.05). However, a group difference for accuracy was identified when considering the six fastest forehand shots (P<0.05), and the forehand cross-court stroke was played more accurately than the backhand cross-court stroke by both groups (valid shots and six most accurate shots, P<0.05). Moreover, there was no evidence that players who impacted the ball faster were any less accurate than those who impacted the ball more slowly. Analyses for participants actually revealed a negative correlation between ball speed and mean radial error (accuracy) for the backhand down the line (r= ? 0.77, P<0.01). According to the results of this study, ball speed seems to be the determining factor that separates elite from sub-elite tennis players.     

Cross-sectional comparison of body composition and resting metabolic rate in Premier League academy soccer players: Implications for growth and maturation

ABSTRACT

For the first time we aimed to: (1) assess fat-free mass (FFM) and RMR in youth soccer players, (2) compare measured RMR to estimated RMR using previously published prediction equations, and (3) develop a novel population-specific prediction equation. In a cross-sectional design, 99 males from a Premier League academy underwent assessments of body composition (DXA) and RMR (indirect-calorimetry). Measured RMR was compared to estimated values from five prediction equations. A novel RMR prediction equation was developed using stepwise multiple regression. FFM increased (P<0.05) between U12 (31.6±4.2 kg) and U16 (56.3±5.3 kg) after which no further increases occurred (P>0.05). RMR in the U12s (1655±195 kcal.day^?1), U13s (1720±205 kcal.day^?1) and U14s (1846±218kcal.day^?1) was significantly lower than the U15s (1957±128 kcal.day^?1), U16s (2042±155 kcal.day^?1), U18s (1875±180 kcal.day^?1) and U23s (1941±197 kcal.day^?1) squads (P>0.05). FFM was the single best predictor of RMR (r²=0.43; P<0.01) and was subsequently included in the novel prediction equation: RMR (kcal.day^?1) = 1315 + (11.1 x FFM in kg). Both FFM and RMR increase from 12-16 years old, thus highlighting the requirement to adjust daily energy intake to support growth and maturation. The novel prediction RMR equation developed may help to inform daily energy requirements.     

球类专选课"联赛制"教学模式初探

从学生上体育课的本质需要出发,以"游戏精神"为指导,在球类专项课中实行"联赛制"教学模式.实践证明,此模式有利于培养学生对球类的热爱,为终身体育打下基础.     

Energy expenditure and dietary intake in professional football players in the Dutch Premier League: Implications for nutritional counselling

ABSTRACT

Selecting effective dietary strategies for professional football players requires comprehensive information on their energy expenditure (EE) and dietary intake. This observational study aimed to assess EE and dietary intake over a 14-day period in a representative group (n = 41) of professional football players playing in the Dutch Premier League (Eredivisie). Daily EE, as assessed by doubly labelled water, was 13.8 ± 1.5 MJ/day, representing a physical activity level (PAL) of 1.75 ± 0.13. Weighted mean energy intake (EI), as assessed by three face-to-face 24-h recalls, was 11.1 ± 2.9 MJ/day, indicating 18 ± 15% underreporting of EI. Daily EI was higher on match days (13.1 ± 4.1 MJ) compared with training (11.1 ± 3.4 MJ; P < 0.01) and rest days (10.5 ± 3.1 MJ; P < 0.001). Daily carbohydrate intake was significantly higher during match days (5.1 ± 1.7 g/kg body mass (BM)) compared with training (3.9 ± 1.5 g/kg BM; P < 0.001) and rest days (3.7 ± 1.4 g/kg BM; P < 0.001). Weighted mean protein intake was 1.7 ± 0.5 g/kg BM. Daytime distribution of protein intake was skewed, with lowest intakes at breakfast and highest at dinner. In conclusion, daily EE and PAL of professional football players are modest. Daily carbohydrate intake should be increased to maximize performance and recovery. Daily protein intake seems more than adequate, but could be distributed more evenly throughout the day.     

The effect of playing formation on high-intensity running and technical profiles in English FA Premier League soccer matches

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of playing formation on high-intensity running and technical performance during elite soccer matches. Twenty English FA Premier League games were analysed using a multiple-camera computerized tracking system (n = 153 players). Overall ball possession did not differ (P > 0.05) between 4–4–2, 4–3–3 and 4–5–1 formations (50%, s = 7 vs. 49%, s = 8 vs. 44%, s = 6). No differences were observed in high-intensity running between 4–4–2, 4–3–3 and 4–5–1 formations. Compared with 4–4–2 and 4–3–3 formations, players in a 4–5–1 formation performed less very high-intensity running when their team was in possession (312 m, s = 196 vs. 433 m, s = 261 vs. 410 m, s = 270; P < 0.05) but more when their team was not in possession (547 m, s = 217 vs. 461 m, s = 156 vs. 459 m, s = 169; P < 0.05). Attackers in a 4–3–3 performed ～30% more (P < 0.05) high-intensity running than attackers in 4–4–2 and 4–5–1 formations. However, the fraction of successful passes was highest in a 4–4–2 (P < 0.05) compared with 4–3–3 and 4–5–1 formations. The results suggest that playing formation does not influence the overall activity profiles of players, except for attackers, but impacts on very high-intensity running activity with and without ball possession and some technical elements of performance.     

The effect of playing formation on high-intensity running and technical profiles in English FA Premier League soccer matches

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of playing formation on high-intensity running and technical performance during elite soccer matches. Twenty English FA Premier League games were analysed using a multiple-camera computerized tracking system (n = 153 players). Overall ball possession did not differ (P < 0.05) between 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 4-5-1 formations (50%, s = 7 vs. 49%, s = 8 vs. 44%, s = 6). No differences were observed in high-intensity running between 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 4-5-1 formations. Compared with 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 formations, players in a 4-5-1 formation performed less very high-intensity running when their team was in possession (312 m, s = 196 vs. 433 m, s = 261 vs. 410 m, s = 270; P 5 0.05) but more when their team was not in possession (547 m, s = 217 vs. 461 m, s = 156 vs. 459 m, s = 169; P < 0.05). Attackers in a 4-3-3 performed ~30% more (P < 0.05) high-intensity running than attackers in 4-4-2 and 4-5-1 formations. However, the fraction of successful passes was highest in a 4-4-2 (P < 0.05) compared with 4-3-3 and 4-5-1 formations. The results suggest that playing formation does not influence the overall activity profiles of players, except for attackers, but impacts on very high-intensity running activity with and without ball possession and some technical elements of performance.     

英超足球俱乐部经营状况之研究

运用文献资料和逻辑分析等方法,对目前英超俱乐部的经营现况进行分析。英超俱乐部的经营方式主要包括自营和委托经营,委托经营主要是俱乐部委托英超公司的电视转播权谈判;自营包括俱乐部以球迷为核心的商业运作。英超俱乐部的经营内容包括冠名权、门票、广告收入、转播费、商业性比赛、球迷产品的开发和球员转会。其经营绩效主要体现在拓展海外市场、吸引资金、扩大俱乐部的影响力等方面。英超俱乐部的经营策略是以球迷为核心,在此基础上进行一系列的商业运作。总体上看英超俱乐部的经营呈良性运行的态势。     

英格兰足球超级联赛俱乐部许可证制度研究

基于规范职业体育俱乐部建设、提高联赛质量的视角,对英格兰足球超级联赛俱乐部许可证制度进行研究。认为:英格兰足球超级联赛从俱乐部合并和俱乐部关联现象,对俱乐部业主资格进行限制;从俱乐部数量,设置俱乐部的竞技标准、经济财务标准、治理结构标准以及俱乐部的迁移等方面,对俱乐部资格进行限制。对联赛中俱乐部关联现象进行限制,有利于保持联赛结果的唯一性;对俱乐部迁移进行限制,有利于促进联赛稳定;俱乐部许可证制度系列标准的设置,有利于控制联赛运营成本,实现联赛健康、持续发展。     

Shirt sponsorship by gambling companies in the English and Scottish Premier Leagues: global reach and public health concerns

While the nature of gambling practices is contested, a strong evidence base demonstrates that gambling can become a serious disorder and have a range of detrimental effects for individuals, communities and societies. Over the last decade, football in the UK has become visibly entwined with gambling marketing. To explore this apparent trend, we tracked shirt sponsors in both the English and Scottish Premier Leagues since 1992 and found a pronounced increase in the presence of sponsorship by gambling companies. This increase occurred at the same time the Gambling Act 2005, which liberalized rules, was introduced. We argue that current levels of gambling sponsorship in UK football, and the global visibility it provides to gambling brands, is a public health concern that needs to be debated and addressed. We recommend that legislators revisit the relationship between football in the UK and the sponsorship it receives from the gambling industry.     

The Dynamics of Quadropoly: League Position in English Football between 1888 and 2010

This paper explores competitive balance in top-tier English league football from its inception in 1888. It examines the extent to which finishing in the top four positions in successive seasons is the preserve of a small number of clubs. Using a range of statistical measures, the analysis shows that the current high levels of competitive imbalance are not new phenomena. The overall pattern approximates a ‘U curve’: current patterns parallel those in the 1890s. In the early years of English league football, differences in resources between clubs soon became apparent. Clubs from the larger conurbations generated consistently larger revenues than their counterparts in the smaller industrial towns. The introduction of the maximum wage in 1901 and the transfer system helped to stem these increasing inequalities between clubs. This coincided with a massive wave of new stadia construction which enabled all the clubs to compete on an increasingly level playing field. These conjunctural changes to English football before 1915 produced the era of relatively competitive football during the inter-war years. This continued until the abolition of the maximum wage in 1961. Since that time, competitive balance has reversed and become increasingly restricted. English top-tier football has re-entered an era of extreme competitive imbalance.