“风险社会”刑法立场的嬗变、反思与回归——以《刑法修正案(八)》为切入点

在风险社会,刑法应当有所作为,《中华人民共和国刑法修正案(八)》体现了风险社会刑法的应对。风险刑法理论为风险社会刑法的应对提供了新的视角,同时也隐藏着巨大的风险。为了应对社会风险,有必要对传统刑法进行合理的变革,但传统刑法蕴含的自由、正义、谦抑等价值理念不能摒弃。应当确立这样的刑法立场:刑法变革应当秉承传统刑法基本价值理念,吸收风险刑法理论的有益成分,弥补传统刑法在应对社会风险上的不足,以实现保障人权和保护社会的刑法机能。     

温州民营企业主风险偏爱研究

根据风险偏爱的组合理论的相关观点，采用问卷调查的方法，对温州民营企业主的风险偏爱进行研究分析，并探讨其对风险的态度。研究得出以下结论：(1)温州民营企业主的风险偏爱特征表现为不完全的单峰模式；(2)不同期望值对于温州民营企业主的风险偏爱没有影响，而不同风险来源在高期望下与其风险偏爱模式关联程度较高；(3)不同风险水平下，温州民营企业主对于实利的追求表现明显。     

VaR模型的理论及应用

风险价值理论(Value at Risk,简称VaR)是一种预测市场风险最常用的方法.对于由不同市场因子、不同金融工具所构成的投资组合和不同业务部门的投资组合,VaR都可以相对可靠地衡量其市场风险.本文主要介绍了VaR的定义.计算方法及其应用.     

基于模糊评价的高校校内生产性实训基地风险评价——以“蜂巢1981”园区为例

根据风险管理的理论,提出针对职业院校生产性实训基地的投资风险评价体系,并以一个校企合作投资建设的生产性实训基地为研究对象,对基地(园区)建设和改造过程中可能出现的政策、自然、技术、经济和管理等方面的风险因素进行了识别、评价,并根据评价的量化结果,分析得到了关键风险因素,为相关的决策和管理提供了相关的依据。     

审计风险涵义分析

审计风险是审计理论与实务中的重要概念，本文通过分析认为，审计风险是注册会计师预期审计时(包括事前、事中、事后)可能引致与其理想结果不一致的可能性，或者说可能发生的某种不一致性。     

浅析VaR的计算及其应用问题

风险价值理论(VaR)是一种预测市场风险最常用的工具，它是测算在给定置信水平下的期望最大损失．这篇文章解释了VaR的定义并分析了VaR计算的参数方法，同时说明这种技术的应用性和局限性。     

沪、深股市收益率的统计分析和风险分析

随机理论认为股票收益率服从正态分布,但大量研究表明,股票收益率等金融时间序列具有"尖峰厚尾"反正态性.极值分布和Laplace分布是一类厚尾分布,本文对沪、深两地股票市场的收益率进行了极值分布(以Gumbel分布最为常用)和Laplace分布拟合,并给出了风险价值(VaR)的估计.实证研究表明,Laplace分布是正态分布的一种改进,而Gumbel分布能较准确地估计巨额盈利(极端事件)的风险.     

企业税务风险管理体系构建刍议

构建税务风险管理体系是解决企业税务风险的根本之道,众多学者都对税务风险的管理提出了宝贵策略,2009年国税总局更是下发了《大企业税务风险管理指引(试行)》为企业税务风险控制提供指导。但以往研究多偏重于理论研究,与具体操作结合者甚少。构建一套适合企业操作的税务风险管理体系有助于企业查找出税务风险,并为企业税务风险管理提供参考。     

论资本资产定价模型与MM理论的相关性及其应用

美国著名经济学家、诺贝尔奖得主莫迪利亚尼、米勒以及马科维茨、夏普等分别提出的MM理论和资本资产定价模型(CAPM)奠定了现代财务经济理论的基石.通过对这两种理论的相关性研究和应用,从风险、收益和企业价值等变量的复杂关系的变化,可以发现它们提供了一种较好的财务评价方法和标准.     

累积风险对童年中期儿童学校功能的影响

一、研究背景学校功能涉及学生出勤情况、学业成就和社会关系等多方面,是衡量学生在校表现及个体发展的重要指标。学生的学校功能受到自身、家庭、学校和社区等多种系统风险因素的影响,但以往研究多是考察单一风险因素的影响。累积风险理论(Cumulative Risk Theory,CRT)认为,与单一风险因素相比,个体面对的风险因素的数量对其发展结果的预测作用更强。     

Risk behaviors and resiliency within physically abused adolescents

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the relationship between physical abuse and several risk behaviors, and thriving behaviors, and the relationship between potential protective factors and engagement in risk and thriving behaviors among victims of physical abuse. Three categories of potential protective factors were examined: (1) individual characteristics, (2) family processes, and (3) extra-familial factors. We expected that high levels of protective factors would reduce engagement in risk behaviors (i.e., alcohol use, tobacco use, drug use, sexual activity, antisocial behavior, attempted suicide, and purging) among abused adolescents. RESULTS: Across all the risk behaviors, abused adolescents reported a higher frequency of engagement than non-abused adolescents. Several protective factors were identified for the seven risk behaviors. Peer group characteristics was a significant predictor in all seven of the logistic regressions, followed by positive school climate (six models), religiosity (five models), other adult support (five models), family support (four models), view of the future (two models), and involvement in extra-curricular activities (two models). The variance accounted for by the models ranged from 2% (risk behavior of purging) to 26% (risk behavior of alcohol use and antisocial behavior). CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that, with the exception of sexual activity, the majority of abused adolescents were not engaging in risk behaviors; however, significantly more abused adolescents were engaging in risk behaviors than their non-abused counterparts. In addition, that protective factors were found to exist at various levels of the adolescents' ecology has strong implications for practice.     

Risk factors for childhood violence and polyvictimization: A cross-country analysis from three regions

Understanding risk factors is important to ending childhood violence and meeting Sustainable Development Goal 16.2. To date, no study has examined patterns of risk factors across countries comprehensively for different types of childhood violence, and there is a dearth of evidence of polyvictimization in lower- and middle-income settings. We analyse risk factors of childhood emotional (EV), physical (PV), sexual violence (SV) and polyvictimization for children aged 13–17 from nationally-representative Violence Against Children Surveys across six countries. We examine risk factors at the community-, household-, and individual- levels for each violence type, stratified by gender using multivariable logistic regression models. Across countries, school enrolment increased violence risk among females and males (three countries), but was protective against violence among females (one country), and among males (three countries). Among females, increasing age was associated with increased risk of SV (five countries) and polyvictimization (three countries); among males this relationship was less salient. Non-residence with a biological father emerged as a risk factor for SV among girls. Few or inconsistent associations were found with other factors, including number of household members, wealth, and urban residence. These results underscore on the one hand, the need for country-specific research on risk factors to inform prevention strategies, as well as increased investment in data collection to provide a more complete and robust basis for evidence generation. High levels of polyvictimization highlight overlapping vulnerabilities children face, and may provide insights for policymakers and practitioners in designing strategies to protect children at greatest risk of abuse.     

Later competence and adaptation in infants who survive severe heart defects

A model of risk potential for developmental outcome was created based on cardiac, medical, surgical, and family-stress factors in 31 children with transposition of the great arteries who had undergone reparative open heart surgery utilizing cardiopulmonary bypass during infancy. Impact of these potential risk factors was assessed by 4 current neurologic measures (neurologic anatomic abnormalities, functional impairment, electroencephalograph [EEG], and Pattern Visual Evoked Potential [PVEP]) and 4 psychologic measures (IQ, achievement, perceptual-motor function, and behavior). Results indicated that adverse developmental outcome was significantly associated with the following medical risk variables: failure of palliative surgery to alleviate hypoxia, prolonged hypoxia, growth failure, congestive heart failure, absence of ameliorating shunting heart defects, stroke, and CNS infection; and two psychosocial moderator variables: socioeconomic status and current life stress. Analysis of a "cumulative risk score" indicated significantly higher risk scores in children with abnormal EEGs, PVEPs, and neurologic examinations. The cumulative risk score highly correlated with composite neurologic outcome (r = .62), IQ (r = -.66), achievement (r = -.60), and perceptual-motor function (r = -.48). While overall outcome was favorable for children with TGA who experienced a single risk event, outcome was compromised if multiple risk factors occurred.     

Childhood trauma and suicide risk in a sample of young individuals aged 14–35 years in southern Brazil

Suicide is among the main causes of death of people aged between 15 and 44 years old. Childhood trauma is an important risk factor for suicide. Hence, the objective of this study was to verify the relationship between childhood trauma and current suicide risk (suicidal behavior and ideation) in individuals aged 14–35 years, in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional, population-based study. Sample selection was performed by clusters. Suicide risk was evaluated using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) and Childhood trauma was assessed with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Moreover, the participants responded to a questionnaire concerning socioeconomic status, work, and substance use. The sample was composed of 1,380 individuals. The prevalence of suicide risk was 11.5%. The prevalence figures of childhood trauma were 15.2% (emotional neglect), 13.5% (physical neglect), 7.6% (sexual abuse), 10.1% (physical abuse), and 13.8% (emotional abuse). Suicide risk was associated (p < .001) with gender, work, alcohol abuse, tobacco use, and all types of childhood trauma. The odds of suicide risk were higher in women (OR = 1.8), people who were not currently working (OR = 2.3), individuals who presented alcohol abuse (OR = 2.6), and among tobacco smokers (OR = 3.4). Moreover, suicide risk was increased in all types of trauma: emotional neglect (OR = 3.7), physical neglect (OR = 2.8), sexual abuse (OR = 3.4), physical abuse (OR = 3.1), and emotional abuse (OR = 6.6). Thus, preventing early trauma may reduce suicide risk in young individuals.     

Responsiveness to mathematical problem-solving instruction: comparing students at risk of mathematics disability with and without risk of reading disability

This study assessed responsiveness to a 16-week mathematical problem-solving treatment as a function of students' risk for disability. Among 301 third graders, TerraNova scores were used to categorize students as at risk for both reading and mathematics disability (MDR/RDR; 20 control and 12 experimental), at risk for mathematics disability only (MDR-only; 5 and 8), at risk for reading disability only (RDR-only; 12 and 15), or not at risk (NDR; 60 and 69). Interactions among at-risk status, treatment, and time showed that as a function of treatment, MDR/RDR, MDR-only, and RDR-only students improved less than NDR students on computation and labeling, and MDR/RDR students improved less than all other groups on conceptual underpinnings. Exploratory regressions suggested that MDR/RDR students' math deficits or their underlying mechanisms explained a greater proportion of variance in responsiveness to problem-solving treatment than reading deficits or their underlying mechanisms.     

煤矿区农田土壤-豆类作物系统的重金属富集状况及风险评估

以宿州煤矿区为例,通过现场采样和室内试验测定,探讨了土壤-豆类作物系统中重金属元素Cu、Pb、Zn、Cr、Cd和Mn的含量特征及富集状况,并利用潜在生态风险指数和健康风险模型对土壤及农作物的安全风险水平进行了评估,结果表明:矿区农田土壤中Cd严重超标,导致土壤潜在生态风险达到强等级程度;豆类作物对土壤中各重金属元素的富集系数依次为ZnCuCdMnPbCr,大豆与绿豆相比,更易于吸收Cu、Pb、Cd和Mn,而对Zn和Cr的富集能力稍弱;两种日均摄食量情境下,豆类作物的重金属致癌危害风险以Cr最高,风险值超出ICRP和USEPA的最大可接受风险水平,而非致癌危害风险以Cu最高,风险值高于HCEPD的可忽略风险水平。     

Target blood pressure in diabetes patients with hypertension—What is the accumulated evidence in 2011?

There is overwhelming evidence that hypertension is an important risk factor for both macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with diabetes, but the problem remains to identify appropriate goals for preventive therapies. A number of guidelines (the European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) 2007, the Joint National Committee (JNC)-VII 2003, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) 2011) have for example advocated a blood pressure goal of less than 130/80 mmHg, but this suggestion has been challenged by findings in recent trials and meta-analyses (2011). The European Society of Hypertension (ESH) therefore recommends a systolic blood pressure goal of “well below” 140 mmHg. Based on evidence from both randomized controlled trials (hypertension optimal treatment (HOT), action in diabetes and vascular disease: preterax and diamicron MR controlled evaluation (ADVANCE), action to control cardiovascular risk in diabetes (ACCORD)) and observational studies (ongoing telmisartan alone and in combination with ramipril global endpoint trial (ONTARGET), international verapamil-trandolapril study (INVEST), treat to new targets (TNT), and the National Diabetes Register (NDR)), it has been shown that the benefit for stroke reduction remains even at lower achieved blood pressure levels, but the risk of coronary events may be uninfluenced or even increased at lower systolic blood pressure levels. In a recent meta-analysis, it was therefore concluded that the new recommended goal should be 130–135 mmHg systolic blood pressure for most patients with type 2 diabetes. Other risk factors should also be controlled with a more ambitious strategy applied in the younger patients with shorter diabetes duration, but a more cautious approach in the elderly and frail patients with a number of vascular or non-vascular co-morbidities. In patients from East Asia, such as China, the stroke risk is relatively higher than the risk of coronary events. This must also be taken into consideration for individualized goal setting in relation to total risk, for example in patients from stroke-prone families. In conclusion, the current strategy is to have a more individualized approach to risk factor control in patients with type 2 diabetes, also relevant for blood pressure control.     

Serum lipids and other risk factors for diabetic retinopathy in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients

Objective

To investigate the association of serum lipids and other risk factors with diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients.

Methods

Five hundred and twenty-three type 2 diabetic patients underwent ophthalmic examination by experienced retinal specialists to assess their DR. Serum lipids, including triglycerides, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC), were measured using Roche automated clinical chemistry analyzers. The concentration of very low density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDLC) was calculated based on total cholesterol, HDLC and LDLC. Hyperlipidemia was defined as a total cholesterol concentration of 6.2 mmol/L or higher or the use of lipid-lowering medications. The association of risk factors with any DR or proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) was assessed using the odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), calculated from logistic regression models.

Results

In multivariate logistic regression models, hyperlipidemia (OR=2.39, 95% CI: 1.02–5.66), higher VLDLC (OR=1.59, 95% CI: 1.14–2.23), and higher triglyceride (OR=1.18, 95% CI: 1.03–1.37) were associated with increased risk of DR. A longer diabetic duration was associated with increased risk of DR (P<0.0001) and PDR (P=0.002) in a dose-response manner. Higher systolic blood pressure (P=0.02) and higher serum creatinine (P=0.01) were independently associated with increased risk of DR, and female gender was associated with increased risk of PDR (P=0.03).

Conclusions

Among Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, hyperlipidemia, higher VLDLC, and higher triglyceride were independently associated with increased risk of DR, suggesting control of serum lipids may decrease the risk of DR.     

住房公积金贷款风险的成因及对策

随着住房公积金规模的不断扩大，信贷风险管理日趋重要，列举了几种常见的住房公积金贷款风险，分析了其形成的原因，指出造成风险的原因在于系统性风险和非系统性风险，提出：防范贷款风险的对策在于加强管理，建立风险预警机制，严格贷前调查，贷中审查，贷后检查。     

Children's school readiness in the ECLS-K: Predictions to academic, health, and social outcomes in first grade

Two studies examine patterns of school readiness in children at school entry and how these patterns predict first-grade outcomes in a nationally representative sample of first-time kindergartners from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study—Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999 (N = 17,219). In Study 1, cluster analyses revealed four profiles at kindergarten entry: comprehensive positive development (30%), social/emotional and health strengths (34%), social/emotional risk (13%), and health risk (22.5% of the sample). Study 2 results suggested that children with one of the two “risk” profiles were more likely to be from families with multiple socioeconomic disadvantages. In addition, all four profiles differentially predicted academic and social adjustment in early elementary school. Children with a risk profile performed the worst on all outcomes; children with a comprehensive positive development profile performed the best. The authors discuss the need for early identification of children who may be at risk for entering school with few school readiness strengths.