近来中东北非局势对中国能源安全的影响

国际能源市场对中东北非地区的依赖度极高,且中东北非局势严重影响全球能源安全,表现在国际石油供应、国际油价走势、国际能源通道运行.中国能源安全主要是石油安全,而中国石油安全实为中东北非地缘政治安全,因为中国严重依赖中东北非地区石油进口,且在中东北非地区油气投资已成规模,所以保障中国能源安全要求中东北非地缘政治环境稳定.应该从多角度审视近期中东北非局势对中国能源安全的影响,宏观把握中东北非地区形势发展,微观分析潜在风险的存在,预期高油价或成为未来中国能源安全主要威胁.     

冷战初期土耳其的中东外交

第二次世界大战结束后,随着美苏两大阵营的形成,土耳其共和国长期奉行的中立外交政策面临严重挑战。俄国的威胁迫使土耳其靠向西方大国。在20世纪50年代曼德列斯政府时期,土耳其实行亲美、亲西方的外交,在中东地区的外交积极主动。冷战使土耳其重返国际政治的中心,但作为西方在中东的一个坚定盟友,土耳其与中东其他国家关系疏远,影响其在中东发挥更大的作用。     

中美关系中的以色列因素

以色列被视为中美关系的“后方渠道”,中以关系的曲折发展经历了四个阶段,在西方学者看来,中以联系渠道中最迷人的就是以色列的农业和武器技术,而国际社会的种种猜测和想象使美国对中以联系极为敏感,时常指责以色列向中国输送高科技是非法的“错误行为”,实质而言,美国始终坚守“冷战思维”,意欲对冷战后阻挡美国全球霸权目标实现的中国进行“遏制”;面对美国的压力,以色列面临双重困境,一方面,它要实现自身的国家利益,建立“自尊”;而另一方面,独一无二的美以特殊关系及自身的地缘政治需要又迫使它不得不最终屈从美国的压力。     

北非和中东共同成立大学校长协会

正据世界大学新闻网2013年11月22日报道,近日,第一届北非和中东地区大学领导人论坛在阿联酋召开,来自33个国家的170位大学领导人参加了此次论坛。该论坛集合了北非和中东地区的高等教育智囊团,讨论高等教育的最新趋势和挑战,并确定了未来合作的战略路线。北非和中东大学校长协会在论坛期间成立。该论坛由来自10个阿拉伯国家的15位大学领导人组成,旨在通过大学领导人的交流与合作,分享不同的理念和经验,加强国际和地区机构间的合作,进而有效促进北非和中东     

论霸权

霸权是一种整合国家间利益的权力方式(关系)。它与霸权主义、帝国主义、资本主义、大国主义、“极”有着根本的区别。霸权的兴衰存在着客观的必然性和偶然性。科学分析霸权及其兴衰有助于我们在国际政治实践中有效维护国家利益，搞好国家关系，从而促进世界的和平与发展。     

福柯权力视域下的《星期六》解读

伊恩·麦克尤恩的作品《星期六》呈现出不同权力和话语的交锋。贝罗安利用权力凝视策略来构建自身权威,通过医学话语来劝阻巴克斯特的施暴行为,约翰以男权压迫孙女的女性意识和自由,显现出知识话语对人的道德规训;贝罗安与西奥、施特劳斯开展政治谈论,在博物馆面对首相失声,突显权力话语对个体的政治规训;黛西与贝罗安争辩伊拉克战争的合法性,是女性和男性话语的对立,隐喻欧美对中东地区的政治压制,折射出西方国家操控权力,实施帝国霸权和文化扩张的本质,体现西方社会对伊斯兰国家的文化规训。本文以福柯理论解读《星期六》中多元化权力场域,揭示权力话语运用政治、道德及文化合谋对人和社会实施多重规训,折射出麦克尤恩对现代社会人的生存处境的思索。     

从文化层面看“民主和平论”

冷战结束后,“民主和平论”作为一种新理想主义学派在以美国为主的西方国家颇为流行。从文化层面剖析,“民主和平论”是东西方文化冲突的表现,是美国输出民主的文化战略,是美国实现全球霸权的软权力。     

美国霸权：一种制度的分析视角

从霸权秩序的建立和维持方式的角度来看，霸权可分为权力霸权和制度霸权两种历史形态，当前美国的全球霸权就主要是一种制度霸权。二战后，美国在政治、经济和安全领域建构了一系列国际制度，以求全面主导国际社会。冷战结束后，美国根据变化了的国际形势及时修正了原有的国际规范，具体表现在：政治上构建由美国领导的、其他西方国家参与的民主世界，以此为中心建立世界新秩序井相应弱化联合国机制的作用；经济上通过左右世界贸易组织，推动贸易、投资自由化，建立为美国服务的全球经济新规范；安全领域积极推进以军事同盟为基础的多边防务安排，井加紧构建针对恐怖主义等非传统安全威胁的安全网络。“积极的多边主义”和“非公平性”是美国制度霸权的基本特征。美国制度霸权存在着完整性不足、合法性不足以及充分性和有效性不足等缺陷。面对美国主导国际制度这一政治现实，中国理应采取灵活而务实的应对之策。     

中东北非阿拉伯国家政治发展对国际能源格局的影响

二战结束以后,中东北非阿拉伯国家建立了主权国家。然而现代化对这些国家构成了严峻挑战。西方则利用其国内政治发展问题,借机打击和削弱欧佩克,寻求能源来源多元化。近年来,里海和西非等地大规模发现油气资源,挤占了OPEC的市场份额,从而世界市场减轻了对中东石油的依赖,OPEC的地位进一步受到削弱,同时能源进口国对能源争夺越发激烈,这必将对国际政治格局产生深远的影响。     

“大中东计划”目的何在?

最近,美国积极酝酿推出“大中东计划”。所谓的“大中东”,除了从北非到西亚的22个阿拉伯国家之外,还包括土耳其、伊朗、巴基斯坦、阿富汗以及中亚与高加索地区。这些地区多信奉伊斯     

中国在中东风险的“场景”考量

中国要在中东实现和增进国家利益,无疑会面临诸多挑战与风险。在风险"场景"上,既包括美国中东"霸主"地位的强化和延续,又包括"多国"力量在中东围绕地缘政治和"低级政治"诸内容的博弈,还包括中东内部自身状况的恶化等其他方面。对相关风险场景的认知,有助于规避相应风险,谋取中国在中东利益的最大化。     

战后金融外交与美国金融霸权

当今国际关系体系的显特征是：金融力量越来越成为影响各个国家社会政治生活的基本因素之一,也是造成某些发展中国家政治危机和社会动荡的直接原因,而一个时代的国际金融体系,往往是体现该时代霸主国利益的霸权体系,霸主国通过国际金融手段对国际经济和外交事务施加深刻的影响,,美国在战后充分认识到它能够运用强大的经济实力创造一个以美国为核心的国际金融体系,通过实现经济霸权来达到实现政治和军事霸权的目的,美国设法使美元成为国际储备,以此获得自行印刷外汇的特权,这样就能源源不断地为维持全球霸权地位提供资金。“美元特权”构成了美国全球霸权地位的基础。     

Livelihood planning and career guidance in Palestine and the broader MENA region

It has often been stated that the Arab “world” is faced by a demographic challenge which is very different to that of many countries in the global North. As the Arab Spring has shown, youths across the region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are keen to make a mark, and despite the internal conflicts and contests for power and influence, many young leaders are hoping to establish new forms of social cohesion which could lead to peace and prosperity within a globalised, interconnected world. This paper focuses on one aspect of the relationship between Arab youth and society, namely the difficult transition between formal education and employment. Drawing on, among other sources, a comparative study carried out across eight Arab states, the role which career education and guidance can play in the process is examined. This is followed by a case study of Palestine where, despite very challenging and difficult political and economic circumstances, significant and promising efforts have been made to help young people develop the life skills needed to engage with schooling in ways that do not only enhance learning, but also facilitate access to work and to self-employment. The paper argues that while career education and guidance (CEG) cannot possibly be expected to solve the disconnect between education and work, it does have a role to play in enhancing learning, in supporting transitions, and thus in contributing to both social and economic development goals.     

Education Quality in the Middle East

Some of the most dramatic growth in the provision of primary and secondary education over the last decade has occurred across countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Yet student achievement across MENA is lagging compared to many other parts of the world. Low quality of education is a primary concern and one of the greatest challenges facing education and government leaders across the region. This paper summarises recent evidence regarding student learning in the MENA region and draws on Galal’s model of policy formulation in considering ways that governments across the Middle East might address this problem.     

析俄罗斯对"邪恶轴心"国家的外交政策

为制衡美国在国际事务中的霸权追求,俄罗斯近期不断改善与伊朗、伊拉克及朝鲜的关系。这说明,俄罗斯在反恐问题上有着自己的选择和主张,显露出了俄罗斯在国际政治舞台上的“强人”本色。     

How effective are early grade reading interventions? A review of the evidence

It is imperative that students learn to read in the early grades, yet many fail to do so in developing countries. Early Grade Reading (EGR) interventions have emerged as a common means to address this problem. We present a definition of EGR interventions as programs that aim to strengthen core reading skills in grades 1 through 4 by training teachers to teach reading using simplified instruction and evidence-based curricula, and by employing a combination of complementary approaches. We also clarify the theoretical reasons for why these interventions should improve literacy. Furthermore, we summarize evidence from 15 EGR interventions—11 from sub-Saharan Africa, two from Middle East and North Africa, and two from East Asia and the Pacific—and find that EGR interventions are not a guaranteed means to improve reading, and they rarely lead to fluency in the short term, but they are a mostly reliable means to make substantial improvements in reading skills over a short period of time, across a variety of contexts, with average effects equating to about three years of schooling.     

文明对话:希腊化时期西亚北非历史的个案

广义的希腊化国家包括罗马帝国、帕提亚帝国和帕加马等。希腊化时期西亚北非的文明对话的特点:第一,处于边缘地位的周边落后民族迅速崛起,建立了横跨欧亚非三大洲的大帝国,原有的先进文明日渐衰落。第二,文化交往从以往的单向性发展为双向性。第三,文化交融是军事征服的后果。第四,文明中心迁移至欧亚大陆交界处和两河流域的新兴大城市或首都。第五,文化交往的趋势是融合型的文化取代纯粹的东方文化和希腊文化。第六,希腊化遭遇了中东部分人民的顽强反抗。第七,希腊化促进了东西方宗教的融合及世界宗教和中东文明圈的形成。     

The quality of education in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

The quality of education is an issue in every region undergoing economic change, hence it is a universal issue. Where the quality of education is already low, the need to raise it is more urgent. In the Middle East and North Africa, data on educational quality are scarce. Nevertheless, available data would suggest that the quality of education is low. The cause of the problem, however, is not a scarcity of monetary resources but the inefficiency of managing the resources already allocated.Many of the regulations and traditions for managing educational systems in the Middle East and North Africa have their origin in the era of central economic planning. Changes are suggested in six areas. These include: an end to early vocational tracking; coherence in content between curriculum, examinations, textbooks and classroom teaching; a shift in textbook production away from state monopolies; a professionalized teaching force with higher salaries differentiated by mandatory re-licensing; creative financing and provision of higher education; and a significant improvement in education statistics and indicators of progress.