Determinants of increasing duration of first unemployment among first degree holders in Rwanda: a logistic regression analysis

Unexpectedly, the duration of first unemployment among first degree holders has quickly increased in Rwanda after considerable loss of the skilled labour during the war and Genocide perpetrated against Tutsi in 1994. The time it takes a higher education graduate to land a first employment is a key indicator for the evaluation of and optimal investment in higher education. A long-term first unemployment has negative psychosocial and economic consequences, and is an interplay of diversified factors. Yet, these factors have not been ascertained in Rwanda, whereas their knowledge is crucial for an efficient planning of higher education and employability of the graduates. This study aimed to fill in this knowledge gap for the period 1998–2009. We fitted a binary logistic regression model to data from the 2010 Employer and Graduate Survey (n = 1007) that was conducted by the National University of Rwanda. The results showed that the duration of first unemployment was significantly associated to the graduate’s age, job search method, acquired skills, further graduate studies, monthly salary and category of employing institution. The results suggest that the higher education sector should identify and fill skills gaps in the existing curricula or its delivery with reference to the labour market requirements.     

Changes in the Youth Labour Market, 1974‐1981

The paper uses time series data constructed from the annual General Household Survey to examine the impact of increasing qualifications, rising unemployment and growing government intervention on the labour market experiences of young people in Great Britain from 1974 to 1981. The data show that for those not continuing in full‐time education the rise in qualifications has been at the lower levels only. For young males growing unemployment after 1979 was associated with a loss of jobs at all skill levels, but the proportion in skilled manual jobs fell steadily throughout the period. For females growing unemployment was associated in the early part of the period with a loss of skilled white collar jobs and in the later part with a loss of less skilled jobs. The decline in the proportion in skilled jobs was particularly marked for the unqualified. While falling unemployment in 1978/79 brought more skilled jobs for 16‐year‐olds, including the unqualified, older teenagers gained only a rise in the proportion in less skilled jobs. Since 1979 the qualifications of young people in skilled manual occupations have risen faster than in other occupation groups. Some implications of these trends are discussed.     

Employment,education, and emigration: the FYR of Macedonia

The transitional process of the FYR of Macedonia since independence in 1991 has been marked by a severe economic crisis, which has led to a significant increase in the levels of unemployment (31.9 percent in 2002) and poverty (22.7 percent in 2001). The turbulent situation in the Balkan region (war in the countries of the Former Yugoslavia) and finally the internal conflict in 2001 have created a strong tendency for migration. The present study is focused primarily on providing evidence for the migration and outflow of skilled labour. It looks in more depth at the reasons for brain drain, at the current policies of the country to tackle it, and gives some practical recommendations for policy‐makers in the area of brain drain. The paper explores the links between unemployment of the highly educated in the FYR of Macedonia and brain drain. Further, the paper discuses the situation within higher education: why has the number of domestic students risen so drastically in recent years and why have more and more students opted to study abroad? What damage will this tendency cause in the short and medium term? Are there some returns from high skilled emigration that offset or even improve source country development prospects?     

教育投入、教育溢出与中国经济增长

运用向量自回归模型实证考察了我国教育投入和教育溢出对经济增长的影响。结果表明,我国教育投入对经济增长具有显著正影响,而教育溢出对经济增长具有显著负影响。因此,一方面我国应继续加大教育投入、促进经济发展;另一方面也应慎重考虑我们的高等教育改革,使高等教育培养的人才更好地适应经济发展。     

以就业为导向的河北省高职教学模式改革研究

在当今经济高速发展时期,占据中国高等教育＂半壁江山＂的高职教育,无论是从数量上还是规模上显然都已经成为中国高等教育的重要组成部分,然而其毕业生缺乏就业优势。如何使高职教育满足社会对于高素质技能型专门人才的需求,紧跟社会经济发展步伐,是高职教育亟须解决的问题。为了进一步提高我省高职毕业生就业质量,对高职教育教学模式进行改革迫在眉睫。     

Who Gets Unemployed, Employed, or Admitted to the Graduate School?——An Investigation of the Employment Situation of College Graduates in China between 2003 and 2009

本研究利用2003年- 2009年北京大学实施的全国高校毕业生调查数据,考察高校学生毕业后发展路径选择的变化趋势及其影响因素.研究发现:(1)随着就业竞争加剧和金融危机所带来的冲击效应,高校学生的毕业后发展路径选择呈现多元化格局,其中继续升学和非传统型就业群体比例增加;(2)高校毕业生中有超过四分之一的群体在毕业后陷入失业困境,其中女性,来自农村地区、家庭社经地位和文化资本积累不足等先致性因素导致毕业生陷入失业困境的概率增高;(3)高校学生毕业后发展路径受到个体特征、所属高等院校特征、劳动力市场发展状况以及宏观社会经济发展环境等多层面因素的影响.     

城市失业和经济增长之间关系的实证研究——基于托达罗模型的分析

我国经济增长中城镇增长所占比重越来越大,通过对全国31个省市区2000年-2007年经济增长率与失业率的paneldata数据分析发现,较快的经济增长带来的不是城镇失业率的降低而是提高。原因在于托达罗模型所分析的发展中国家城市快速发展导致城镇失业的传导机制仍然存在。因此,需要反思目前中国城乡差别的制度,加大对农村固定资产投资和人力资本投资力度,加快新农村建设,缩小城乡差距,进而达到经济增长和城市失业问题的良性循环。     

知识性失业在我国的成因分析

我国近年来出现的知识性失业是对人力资源的巨大浪费，其原因是多方面的，主要是经济体制转型、高校扩招导致毕业生人数增加、专业设置与市场需求脱轨、毕业生预期与用人单位需求错位等情况所造成。应从政府、用人单位和学校、家庭、个人等多个层面给予重视，通过改革和发展，形成治理知识性失业的强大合力，避免人才浪费。     

高职院校职业生涯规划的理性思辨

在国内外双重不利因素影响下,我国的就业形势将在未来几年里仍然十分严峻,而高等职业教育在培养高素质技能型人才,推动经济发展、促进就业、改善民生等方面具有普通高等教育所不具有的优势。对高职院校职业生涯规划现状进行理性思辨,这对促进高职毕业生的就业和职业发展大有裨益。     

Ban on the Establishment of Full-Time Tutorial Classes by Middle Schools to Increase Promotion Rate Reiterated

Editor's Note: Our newpaper publishes today the circular issued by the Shandong Provincial Education Department to reiterate the ban on the establishment by middle schools of full-time tutorial classes for previous graduates. The circular suggests several effective measures well worth the notice of all localities. Over recent years, full-time tutorial classes to prepare for entrance examinations to institutions of higher education have been steadily increasing, and it is also a growing trend that more and more tutorial classes for junior high students have been set up. This tendency has a serious impact on the normal teaching order and adversely affects the improvement of educational quality. To ensure an all-round implementation of the party's educational policy, it is necessary for various localities to adopt effective measures, as the Shandong Provincial Education Department has done, conscientiously to rectify the mistaken trend of laying lopsided emphasis on promotion rate.     

高等教育产业化视角下对文凭与过度教育的反思与分析

在我国社会经济转型期,高等教育产业化下的教育规模不断扩张,教育过度现象愈加明显,对社会各界产生深远影响,社会对文凭的要求也水涨船高。高校毕业生为谋求好职业、高收入和晋升机会等,对高文凭的追求日益火热,引发劳动力市场结构性失业问题。从高等教育产业化的视角对文凭热与过度教育进行反思,政府要正确引导高等教育产业化发展,高校则依据科技产业发展培养所需人才,高校毕业生要树立终身学习的理念,这样才能避免因追求学历而产生的过度教育,让高等教育更好地与社会经济发展协同共进。     

对高职经济管理专业学生实施素质教育的探讨

面对每年人数都在增加的高校毕业生,高职经管类毕业生经受着越来越大的社会竞争压力。为了增强自身竞争力和持续发展的能力,他们需要在三年高职学习中提高整体综合素质。素质教育的任务实际上应该由专业任课教师部分承担,才能解决这个矛盾。文章从素质教育如何在高职经管类专业课程教学中实施这个角度,探讨了在高职有限的课堂学时里有效实施素质教育的问题。     

Massification of higher education and youth transition: skills mismatch,informal sector jobs and implications for China

This study adopts a nationwide survey data set between 2005 and 2013 (Chinese General Social Survey) to explore the influence of the massification of higher education on the transition of Chinese youth into the labour market. Data analysis reveals two major findings. First, the economic returns to college education of recent cohorts of university graduates (those who have graduated from universities not more than 3 years ago) are lower than the cohorts who graduated in 2005 and 2006. Second, recent cohorts of college graduates are likely to work in the urban informal sector, unlike their senior counterparts. These findings could partially be explained by skills mismatch in the labour market but a comprehensive understanding of graduate unemployment in China could be obtained by bringing the broader political economy perspective into the analysis.     

高校计算机实验室经济效益的综合评价

计算机实验室已经成为高等学校投资较大、发展最快的实验室,它的经济效益直接影响到高校信息技术教育的发展。文章从计算机实验室经济效益的评价指标、评价方法和提高计算机实验室经济效益的途径等方面进行了论述。     

高等教育对美国大学生就业的影响

本研究将大学教育的经济回报分析扩展到毕业后十年,进一步考察了大学教育对于学生毕业后第一个十年内失业可能性的影响。本研究还验证了大学质量对毕业生收入有积极影响,同时不同本科专业之间存在巨大差异。然而,这两个主要因素对毕业生失业可能性的影响却截然不同:一方面,高质量私立大学的毕业生虽然在各类型高校的毕业生中享有最高的平均收入,但其失业的可能性也最大;另一方面,较其他专业毕业生而言,就读于高需求专业如商学、医学等的毕业生,其失业可能性也较低。     

Is entrepreneurship a remedy for Chinese university graduates’ unemployment under the massification of higher education? A case study of young entrepreneurs in Shenzhen

Chinese higher education has gained outstanding achievement in expanding its access to the mass population since 1999. However, the mismatch between university curricula and job market requirements leads to increasing unemployment and underemployment of Chinese graduates. In recent years, the central and local governments and universities have viewed entrepreneurship as an efficient means to solve the unemployment and underemployment issues of university graduates. They issued many policies to promote innovation and entrepreneurship among young people. However, university graduates are still facing barriers in deciding to start their entrepreneurial journey. In this qualitative study, we interviewed 37 young entrepreneurs in Shenzen. Results show that the respondents encountered barriers from three aspects: personal traits, resources, and culture. With the empirical data collected from the interviews, we aim to enable higher education professionals and innovation policymakers to develop an advanced understanding of the experiences of the new generation of entrepreneurs while reflecting the efforts in coping with the negative effects of the massification of higher education.     

Trends in the Mincerian Rates of Return to Education in Urban China: 1989–2009

This study examines the trends in the Mincerian rates of return (MRRs) to education in urban China between 1989 and 2009 using two sources of data: the China Urban Household Survey and the China Health and Nutrition Survey, and attempts to explain the underlying causes of the trends. The authors find that while the rates of return to education had been rising steadily since 1992 in urban China, a trend consistent with earlier studies, they have stagnated and even shown a statistically insignificant and very small decline between 2004 and 2009. Using the conceptual framework of supply, demand and institution in labor economics, the authors show evidence that the rapid rise in MRRs since 1992 has been driven by the strong relative demand for skills and productivity unleashed by the market-oriented economic reforms of the late 1980s and 1990s when relative supply of skilled labor was by and large stable. However, the “great leap forward” in senior secondary and tertiary education since the late 1990s produced huge numbers of graduates by the mid-2000s, outpacing the growth of relative demand for skilled labor due to the economy’s overdependence on low value-added industries such as manufacturing and construction. The apparent slowdown in the deepening of marketization since the mid-2000s may have also contributed to the stagnation or slight decline in the returns to education in urban China.     

投资风险、选择困境与弱势补偿——大学生就业难背景下农村家庭的教育意愿研究

近年来,大学生就业难使教育投资风险凸现。本文选取中部地区湖南省的部分县市作为调查样本区域,针对就业难对农村家庭的教育选择意愿的影响实施了田野调查,并运用三阶段Logit模型进行实证分析。研究表明,大学生就业难总体上降低了农村家庭的教育投资意愿,对就业风险的预期使农村的弱势家庭以及欠发达社区农村家庭面临着更大的选择困境。一方面,预算约束使部分农村弱势家庭有放弃子女教育的意愿,另一方面,在没有更好选择的情况下部分弱势家庭的教育意愿又非常高。由于经济机会的缺乏,欠发达地区的家庭更愿意通过上大学来改变子女的命运,这就是教育致贫产生的根源。当前,需要通过有效的补偿和保障机制加以解决。     

中国高等教育扩招与经济振兴

中国高等教育从精英教育到大众教育的扩招对经济发展产生了双重影响:既有对短期经济增长的直接影响,也有人力资本积累对长期经济增长的影响.通过描述中国高等教育体系在这次急剧扩招中的主要变化,并用凯恩斯经济原理和人力资本理论分析高等教育扩招与经济发展的近期或远期目标之间的关系,可以发现,“扩招能在短期内振兴经济”的结论是不成熟的,因为中国正在实现其聚集人力资本的长远目标.然而,高校毕业生的失业率越来越高,这在不断危害其自身利益.     

高等职业教育对经济增长贡献的测算与分析——以广东省2001年至2011年的数据为例简

在柯布和道格拉斯C-D生产函数的基础上,采用丹尼森的因素分析法,以2000年第五次全国人口普查数据为基准,综合使用历年中国统计年鉴数据和广东统计年鉴数据,测算广东省高职教育等各级各类教育对经济增长的贡献率。结果表明,广东省高职教育对经济增长的贡献率,在2006年后步入较快的正向增长轨道,至2011年达0.30%,但仍远低于本科教育对经济增长的贡献率。建议加大对高职教育的资源投入,培养更多适应经济社会发展需要的技能人才,提升劳动投入对拉动经济增长的占比,更好实现广东省产业的转型升级。