Initial identification & selection bias versus the eventual confirmation of talent: evidence for the benefits of a rocky road?

Abstract

The relative age effect (RAE), whereby earlier birthdate children within a selection year are more commonly selected as talented, has been highlighted in the literature. As a consequence, these young athletes get into specialised training earlier and in greater numbers, leading (it is suggested) to a disproportionate opportunity for success. However, this disproportionality seems not to be manifest in senior teams. Accordingly, we examine the identification and conversion rates for academy rugby players, examining a sample of all players passing into and either graduating, or being dismissed from, a major English rugby academy. Data demonstrated a reversal of the RAE “benefit”, whereby late-birth players were less likely to be selected, but more likely to achieve senior professional status. Possible reasons are explored and, on the basis of our data, we propose a psychologically based explanation of greater “growth” due to additional challenge experienced by these initially disadvantaged younger players.     

Relative age effects in Swiss talent development – a nationwide analysis of all sports

Relative age effects (RAE) generate consistent participation inequalities and selection biases in sports. The study aimed to investigate RAE across all sports of the national Swiss talent development programme (STDP). In this study, 18 859 youth athletes (female N = 5353; mean age: 14.8 ± 2.5 y and male N = 13 506; mean age: 14.4 ± 2.4 y) in 70 sports who participated in the 2014 competitive season were evaluated. The sample was subdivided by sex and the national level selection (NLS, N = 2464). Odds ratios (ORs) of relative age quarters (Q1-Q4) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. In STDP, small RAE were evident for females (OR 1.35 (95%-CI 1.24, 1.47)) and males (OR 1.84 (95%-CI 1.74, 1.95)). RAE were similar in female NLS athletes (OR 1.30 (95%-CI 1.08, 1.57)) and larger in male NLS athletes (OR 2.40 (95%-CI 1.42, 1.97)) compared to athletes in the lower selection level. In STDP, RAE are evident for both sexes in several sports with popular sports showing higher RAE. RAE were larger in males than females. A higher selection level showed higher RAE only for males. In Switzerland, talent identification and development should be considered as a long-term process.     

Age-ordered shirt numbering reduces the selection bias associated with the relative age effect

When placed into age groups for junior sporting competition, the relative differences in age between children leads to a bias in who is evaluated as being talented. While the impact of this relative age effect (RAE) is clear, until now there has been no evidence to show how to reduce it. The aim of this study was to determine whether the selection bias associated with the RAE could be reduced. Talent scouts from an elite football club watched junior games and ranked players on the basis of their potential. Scouts were allocated to one of three groups provided with contrasting information about the age of the players: (1) no age information, (2) players’ birthdates or (3) knowledge that the numbers on the playing shirts corresponded to the relative age of the players. Results revealed a significant selection bias for the scouts in the no-age information group, and that bias remained when scouts knew the players’ dates-of-birth. Strikingly though, the selection bias was eliminated when scouts watched the games knowing the shirt numbers corresponded to the relative ages of the players. The selection bias associated with the RAE can be reduced if information about age is presented appropriately.     

Hill on a mountaintop: A longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the relative age effect in competitive youth football

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to examine the origin and persistence of the relative age effect (RAE) in competitive youth football. To examine its origin, birthdates of 121 category one Premier League academy players recruited over 6 years were compared with 691 Under 8 (U8) players in one of the regional grassroots leagues from which academy players are selected. To examine the persistence of the RAE we conducted a longitudinal comparison of retention rates in early-birth and late-birth academy players from U9 to U15, and made a cross-sectional comparison of birthdate distributions from U7 to U18 in 10,857 regional league players. The results revealed birthdate asymmetry in both the academy and grassroots players but a much larger RAE in the academy. Longitudinal analysis revealed that the cumulative probability of retention at the academy was higher for early-birth than late-birth players. A small to medium RAE persisted across grassroots football age groups though it declined somewhat from U15 to U18. The implication of these results for academy player recruitment is discussed.     

中国优秀棒、垒球运动员科学选材研究

选择代表中国最优秀棒、垒球水平的国家队、全部省市一线队主力队员的运动员228人为研究对象,在大规模测试的基础上,经过理论筛选、教练员经验筛选、实际测试筛选和统计学筛选等过程,确定了中国优秀棒、垒球运动员的形态、机能、专项素质、心理、技术和战术等各项能力的选材指标体系(包括客观指标和经验评定指标);建立了中国优秀棒、垒球运动员选材的评价体系。对样本内的回代检验结果证实,选材指标体系与评价标准是有效的和客观的,可用于中国优秀棒、垒球优秀运动员选材。     

New evidence of relative age effects in “super-elite” sportsmen: a case for the survival and evolution of the fittest

The relative age effect (RAE) describes an overrepresentation of players born early (Q1) in a selection year and is highly prevalent within youth sport pathways. However, a dearth of research has investigated the RAE at the “super-elite” level. The present research assessed the presence of RAE in super-elite performers. Study 1 investigated RAEs in the world’s best international Test cricketers (N = 262) over a 20-year period according to a robust and stringent “super-elite” criteria. Results revealed the RAE (Q1) when all disciplines were combined. Upon closer examination, this effect was also observed for the batting and spin bowling disciplines, whereas no RAE was found for the pace bowling discipline. Study 2 investigated RAEs in super-elite rugby union players (N = 691) over a 20 year period. Results revealed the RAE for backs (Q1) and a reversal of the traditional RAE (Q4) for forwards, and when all rugby union positions were combined. These findings provide new evidence of RAEs at the super-elite level and present both inter and intra sports differences. Potential explanations for these findings are explored, owing to the survival and evolution of the fittest concepts, and the implications for future research and applied practice are presented.     

The Relative Age Effect in Elite Sport

The relative age effect (RAE) is considered a common phenomenon in elite sport. However, it has not been examined systematically in previous research, and the mechanisms likely to generate or to limit such an effect are little understood. This paper investigates the prevalence of the RAE in French professional championship-level players, taking into account the potential influence of gender. Among all investigated sports, no statistically significant RAE was found, except for male ice hockey. For male handball and rugby union a trend was detected, but the RAE did not appear statistically significant. In line with previous studies, no significant RAEs were found in female elite sports. The results are discussed with regard to the potential mechanisms underlying RAE.     

Faster,higher, stronger,older: Relative age effects are most influential during the youngest age grade of track and field athletics in the United Kingdom

The relative age effect (RAE) is a common phenomenon in youth sport, whereby children born early in the selection year are more likely to experience success and to sustain participation. There is a lack of research investigating variables which influence RAEs within track and field athletics. Such information is vital to guide policies in relation to competition structure, youth development squads and coach education. A database of competition results was analysed to determine the extent to which RAEs were present in track and field athletics in the United Kingdom. Subsequent analyses examined whether age, sex, event and skill level influenced the RAE. Examination of 77,571 records revealed that RAEs were widespread, but most pronounced during Under 13 (U13) competitions; that is, during athletes’ first exposure to formal track and field competition. Sex, event and skill level further influenced the existence and magnitude of RAEs at different age grades. Relative age is a key influencing factor within track and field athletics, especially at the youngest age category. Consequently, national governing bodies need to consider what administrative and stakeholder initiatives are necessary to minimise the effects of RAEs on young athletes’ early experiences of competition.     

Relative age effects in Australian Football League National Draftees

Abstract

This study examined the birth distribution for adolescent (i.e. <20 years) and mature age players (i.e. ≥20 years) selected in the Australian Football League (AFL) National Draft between 2001 and 2012. Birth-date information was accessed for all first time AFL national draftees and players were then classified as either adolescent (N = 736) or mature age (N = 70) draftees. Chi-squared analysis showed a clear bias in the birth distribution of adolescent draftees towards players born in the first part of the classification period for both quartile (P < 0.001) and half-year (P < 0.001) compared to the Australian national population. There was a reverse relative age effect (RAE) for mature age draftees, with a significant bias towards players born in the latter part of the selection period for both quartile (P = 0.047) and half-year (P = 0.028) compared to the Australian national population. The selection bias towards relatively older players in adolescent AFL draftees may be related to advanced physical and psychological maturity, and exposure to higher-level coaching compared to their younger counterparts. The reverse RAE in mature age draftees is a novel finding and supports the need for strategies to encourage continued participation pathways for talented Australian football players born later in the selection year.     

Prognostic relevance of motor talent predictors in early adolescence: A group- and individual-based evaluation considering different levels of achievement in youth football

ABSTRACT

In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players’ selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR < 99. Simulating increasing score cut-off values not only enhanced specificity (correctly identified non-talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics’ prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches’ subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.     

A survey of talent identification and development processes in the youth academies of professional soccer clubs from around the world

ABSTRACT

Talent identification (TID) and development (TDE) are large fields in professional soccer and in science. However, TID and TDE processes in youth academies have not been assessed in detail. As such, our aim was to survey professional clubs from around the world about their youth academy TID and TDE processes, with 29 clubs responding to the survey. TID and TDE processes changed as a function of player age. TID processes involved finding the best players locally and regionally, but for older players the search widened to nationally and internationally for the needs of the first team. Clubs used a multidisciplinary approach to TID, but more so with older players. Median number of academy players was 80, 100, and 66 players at 8–11 years, 12–16 years, and 17–21 years, respectively. Annual player turnover in the most recent season (selections/de-selections) was 29% across all age groups, with competition from other clubs cited as a limitation to TID. TDE processes involved weekly matches and 3–5 training sessions per week led by experienced, well-qualified coaches, with most clubs providing players with academic education, residency and transportation services. Our findings extend previous research assessing professional soccer youth academy TID and TDE processes by quantifying worldwide practices.     

Comment on “Football-specific fitness testing: adding value or confirming the evidence?”

Abstract

The recent point–counter-point exchange arising from the article by Mendez-Villanueva and Buchheit (2013) (Football-specific fitness testing: Adding value or confirming the evidence? Journal of Sports Sciences, 31, 1503–1508) has generated an interesting debate on the real-world utility of fitness testing in professional association football (soccer). In the present authors’ opinion, this exchange could also have been placed more in the context of the physical testing and subsequent benchmark profiling of the youth player within elite academy talent identification and development processes. This point is further strengthened by the current media debate at the time of writing on the development of elite youth football players in England and the Elite Player Performance Plan or EPPP (The Premier League. (2011). Elite Player Performance Plan. London: Author) published by the English Premier League as part of a vision for the future development of youth football in the League and throughout the English professional game. The EPPP recommends the implementation of a national database to enable comparison of Academy player performances against national physical testing “benchmark” profiles. In continuing the above debate, this letter questions the real-world utility and potential pitfalls of nationwide athletic benchmark profiling programmes for elite youth football.     

Coaches’ implicit associations between size and giftedness: implications for the relative age effect

The relative age effect (RAE) is a well-established phenomenon in education and sports. Coaches have been assumed to be important social agents of RAE via biased selection decisions in favour of children with maturation advantages. In the present research, we used the Implicit Association Test to investigate automatic associations between body size and a player’s domain-specific giftedness amongst youth baseball (N = 18) and youth soccer coaches (N = 34). We found medium to strong automatic associations between body size and player giftedness (baseball: M_D = 0.62; soccer: M_D = 0.51). Specifically, taller players were associated with positive performance-related attributes, whereas smaller players were associated with negative attributes. The results are in line with theories of grounded cognition by showing that the abstract concept of “sport giftedness” is partly grounded in the perception of physical height amongst youth sports coaches. We argue that this grounded cognition has the potential to influence coaches’ selection decisions and in turn account for RAE as coaches are biased towards physically more matured players, even when no apparent performance advantage is evident.     

The developmental and professional activities of female international soccer players from five high-performing nations

ABSTRACT

We study the developmental and professional activities engaged in by 86 female adult soccer players from the senior national teams of Australia, Canada, England, Sweden, and the United States of America. Players completed the Participation History Questionnaire (PHQ) to elicit the amount and type of activities engaged in across their developmental and professional years, including milestones, soccer-specific activity and engagement in other sport activity. Greater specialisation than diversification characterised their childhood developmental activities, including all players starting in soccer in childhood and accumulating more hours in soccer activity than other sports during this period. However, interindividual variation further characterised these childhood activities, with a proportion of players diversifying into other sports and/or soccer play to a greater or lesser degree during childhood when compared to the other players. The amount of coach-led soccer practice increased for all players across their development culminating in an average of 15–16 h/wk across a 40-week season in early adulthood. In contrast, the amount of engagement in other sports and soccer peer-led play varied between players but generally decreased across adolescence to negligible amounts in late adolescence. Findings are commensurate with the deliberate practice framework and early engagement.     

Selection,de-selection and progression in German football talent promotion

Abstract

This study explored to which extent the development of German professional football players is based on early talent identification (TID) and long-term nurture in talent promotion (TP) programmes or on their emergence in the course of repeated procedures of player selection and de-selection in these programmes through childhood and youth. The annual turnover of squad members in national junior teams (2001–2013) and youth elite academies was calculated; national U-team members were followed up with regard to nominations through subsequent seasons and to their success level eventually achieved at senior age; and all current Bundesliga players were analysed retrospectively regarding their earlier involvement in TID/TP programmes. Analyses revealed that the mean annual turnover of squad members was 24.5% (youth academies) and 41.0% (national U-teams), respectively. At any age, the probability of persisting in the programme three years later was <50%. Among current Bundesliga players, the age of recruitment into the TID/TP programme was widely evenly distributed across childhood and youth, respectively. Accordingly, the number of (future) Bundesliga players who were involved in TID/TP was built up continuously through all age categories. The observations suggest that the collective of professional players emerged from repeated procedures of selection and de-selection through childhood and youth rather than from early selection and long-term continuous nurture in TID/TP programmes. The findings are discussed with regard to the uncertainty of TID and of interventions applied to the selected players, and they are related to the individualistic and collectivistic approach in TP.     

A bioecological perspective on talent identification in junior-elite soccer: A Pan-European perspective

ABSTRACT

Elite soccer clubs across Europe spend ever-increasing sums of money on transfers and salaries for world-class players. Consequently, clubs’ talent identification and development processes for junior players have become more professionalised. Based on a holistic ecological approach, this study presents an analysis of talent identification practices across some of the most productive soccer academies in Europe (N = 11). Data were collected via semi-structured interviews with 11 heads of academy recruitment from clubs in the “big five” European leagues. Clubs were purposively sampled based on their player productivity ranking. Interviews ranged from 52:26 minutes to 114:06 minutes in length (m = 87:53 ± 20.10 minutes). This study argues that holistic ecological approaches the environments were characterised through the interplay of factors that ranged from high-level internal to international level relationships. This resulted in the identification and recruitment of players from local and international environments. The purpose of recruitment was suggested to have a dual purpose: recruitment of players for the first team; recruitment of players for further development/monitoring and/or selling to another club.     

A behavioural dynamic model of the relative age effect

Abstract

The relationship between date of birth and success in a variety of sports, including hockey, is well established. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect (RAE). We model the RAE in Canadian youth hockey as a positive feedback loop where an initial age advantage is reinforced through additional training and playing opportunities based on perceived skill superiority. The same causal mechanism leads to a higher quit rate for relatively younger players. Our model effectively replicates the birth month distribution of Canadian National Hockey League players (R² = 86.79%) when driven by Canadian birth distributions. We use this model to evaluate three policies that aim to lessen the RAE. All of the policies reduce the RAE with a significant delay. The most effective policy is a combination of providing additional support to age disadvantaged children and rotating the cut-off date for youth leagues between January 1st and July 1st annually. In equilibrium, this approach leads to a 96% reduction in the RAE compared to the base case.     

A multidimensional approach to talent identification and selection in high-level youth Australian Football players

There is limited research in talent identification in youth Australian Football (AF), especially the factors that underpin selection into higher-level development programs. Therefore, this study explored age-related differences in high-level youth AF players and investigated characteristics influencing selection into a high-level development program. Anthropometry (stature, sitting height, body mass), maturity (estimated age at peak height velocity), motor competence (Körperkoordinationstest für Kinder), fitness (change of direction speed, lower body power and upper body muscular endurance) and coach skill ratings (kicking, marking and handballing) of 277 state academy players (U13-U15) were assessed. MANOVAs identified significant age-related differences for anthropometry, fitness, and coach skill ratings. Furthermore, 90.9 and 90.0% of U15 selected and deselected players were classified correctly. Selected players were more mature, taller, heavier, more explosive, faster at changing directions, and had superior kick technique and marking results. These results demonstrate considerable age-group performance outcome differences, highlighting that high-level academies should aim to select or deselect after 15 years of age. Additionally, it appears earlier maturing players are favoured for selection into a high-level academy. While practitioners must consider the confounding effect of maturation, early maturing players may be favoured for their ability to withstand increasing demands in higher-level youth AF.     

对我国运动员科学选材及其管理的几点思考

科学选材一直以来是国家体育战略发展的关键环节，也是一个国家竞技体育事业兴衰的晴雨表。我国历来对运动员科学选材工作相当重视，也取得了一定成果。然而，近年来随着竞技运动激烈程度的不断提高，运动员淘汰率高，成材率低的现象屡见不鲜，本文针对这些问题，从理论和实践两个角度分析了出现这样矛盾的原因并提出了相关的建议。     

我国运动员科学选材现状及发展对策的研究

科学选材是当代竞技体育可持续发展的基本保障,选材的成功不仅促进竞技运动水平的提高、增加训练效益,而且有效降低淘汰率,避免人力、物力、财力的浪费.近年来,我国的科学选材工作已经取得显著的成效,为国家培养了一批批优秀运动员.文章对我国当前科学选材现状进行分析,指出了存在的问题及发展对策.