统计分析运算模型在纳米制造风险评估中的应用

纳米材料生产决策中经常涉及风险的平衡、产量、生产稳定性及成本等因素,但是对于如何控制好这些因素,目前还没有太多指导性的方法.将一些概率及多准则运算模型及方法,如蒙特卡洛法、目标规划、随机规划、满意度函数模型等应用到纳米技术的研究以及纳米材料制造过程的风险分析中,以帮助更好地理解纳米技术所能带来的损失和收益,并将纳米技术的应用潜能最大化.     

Intra-plant diffusion of new technology: Role of productivity in the study of steel refining furnaces

This paper examines intra-plant diffusion of new technology in the Japanese steel industry. The introduction of the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) was the greatest breakthrough in steel refining in the last century. Using unique panel data, the paper estimates total factor productivity by technology type, and associates the estimates with intra-plant diffusion. The paper finds that intra-plant diffusion accounts for about a half of the industry productivity growth. Large plants are likely to adopt the new technology earlier, but retain the old technology longer, than their smaller counterparts.     

半湿润雨养农业区冬小麦冠层反射光谱与长势的相关性分析

本文研究了黄土高原半湿润代表区甘肃省庆阳市西峰区冬小麦主要生育期（返青-抽穗）冠层反射光谱与反映长势的指标覆盖度及叶面积指数间的关系。结果表明,冬小麦覆盖度及叶面积指数同450nm、550nm、650nm、1　650nm波段反射率呈负相关关系,同850nm波段反射率呈正相关关系。起身前,冬小麦长势指标覆盖度及叶面积指数同各波段反射率相关关系大多不显著。起身以后,冬小麦覆盖度和叶面积指数与各波段反射率呈极显著相关关系。另外,为了更好的监测冬小麦长势,研究了8个常用的植被指数同冬小麦长势间的相关关系,这8个植被指数在起身后同冬小麦覆盖度及叶面积指数间存在着极显著的相关关系。并且,利用这8个植被指数建立了冬小麦长势线性及非线性回归监测模型,其中,线性模型能更好的监测冬小麦覆盖度,指数模型能更好的监测冬小麦叶面积指数,但不同的植被指数,拟合程度不同,其中,尤以NDVI拟合程度最高。     

公共科研投资、技术创新与水稻生产率增长——基于动态理论的实证分析/FONT

    摘要：本文运用协整理论,对我国1990-2006年的水稻公共科研投资与技术创新及其生产率增长之间的长短期动态关系进行了检验。结果表明,水稻公共科研投资与技术创新之间存在长期的单向Granger因果关系,而技术创新及公共科研投资与TFP增长之间关系不显著;从短期来看,公共科研投资是水稻品种技术创新的Granger原因,且应用试验经费投入是TFP增长的Granger原因,但技术创新与TFP增长仍不存在显著的Granger因果关系,表明水稻品种创新成果的增加对TFP增长没有显著影响;最后,本文进行了相关解释。       

新兴技术成长阶段动态监测方法研究

新兴技术成长阶段动态监测是一项较为复杂的工作,现有研究较多的从定性评价的角度着手,构建技术成长监测的一般方法,相关成果为更客观的量化方法选择奠定了基础。本研究旨在提供一种可计量的标准化新兴技术成长检测技术。具体包括：（1）运用数学模型将Gartner公司提出的Hype Cycle技术成长曲线以一种可量化的方式进行了呈现;（2）根据Gompertz曲线的数学特征给出技术成长阶段的划分和判定方式;（3）结合实际应用中可能出现的情况给出了新兴技术成长监测方法应用流程;（4）选取人工智能的3个核心技术对所提监测方法进行了实证检验,并给出了后续应用应注意事项。研究成果以期为当前技术成长监测理论和方法研究提供新的思路。     

科技规模“指数增长”佯谬与“协调增长规律”分析

 科技规模“指数增长”佯谬是科学学研究领域一个尚未完全解决的问题。这篇论文通过对普赖斯“指数增长”规律的剖析,指出了“指数增长”佯谬主要缘于普赖斯对科技系统“投入”、“产出”的本末倒置以及对“科学比当今世界上任何其他事物发展更快”的不准确判断。在论证科技投入作为科技规模替代指标合理性与可行性的基础上,通过科技经费增长情况的考察,论证了科技规模的增长规律本质上是科技与经济协调增长的规律,同时也讨论分析了这种“协调增长规律”的动力机制及其启示,即：如若不断加大的科技经费需求得不到满足,世界科技中心将会转移到经济增长率高、科技经费多的国家。     

Commercializing solar technology: The government role

The US Government's experience with programs to accelerate the pace with which new energy technologies are developed and introduced into private markets offers an opportunity to assess alternative commercialization strategies. Analysis of industry and government activities over the 1975–1980 period for three solar technologies revealed that commercialization strategies often did not match the evolutionary status of both the relevant industry and technology involved. Evolutionary models of the development of innovation-based industries were found to provide a useful analytical framework, but were too simple to afford significant predictive or explanatory power. The concept of a “technology delivery system” proved valuable in identifying the degree of match between government commercialization strategies and the status of the relevant industry and technology. For all three solar technologies, there existed pressure on government R&D managers and administrators to push the technologies prematurely to commercialization status. The primary sources of this pressure were elected and appointed officials who sought the political rewards of short-term, highly visible, easily implementable programs.     

基于生物国防的关键生物技术预见研究

生物技术对于国防影响的重要度日益增加,技术发展的快速性使得加强技术预见研究成为科技发展规划的重要依据,由此对关键生物技术对国家安全的影响度进行技术预见研究.本研究采用专家咨询法,从25类生物医药产业关键技术入手,根据对国防的影响重要度进行相关技术及技术平台的预见与筛选,并进行技术重要度与可实现性、实现时间聚类分析.得出关键技术发展的优先度和可实现度,以及战略的重要性与发展规划的时间分布,为科技资源配置提供参考依据.     

Facilitating enterprise application integration adoption: An empirical analysis of UK local government authorities

local government authorities (LGAs) are organised around operational structures with business processes spanning within departments and across other government organisations. In such an organisational setting, the harmonisation of Information Technology (IT) operations, integration of cross-departmental processes and the underlying Information Systems (IS) signifies a challenge in delivering integrated services. This paper attempts to explore enterprise application integration (EAI) adoption in the UK local government authorities (LGAs). Despite the hype of EAI adoption in private domain, its application in LGAs is inadequate as there is a lack of adoption models/frameworks that can be used by the public sector. The context of the study is to consider the transformation of IT infrastructure management and operations with EAI technologies. The empirical findings, generated through a detailed case analysis, manifestly exemplify that EAI predominantly acts as a ‘back-office’ technology that facilitates operations by developing a flexible and maintainable integrated IT infrastructure. Our proposed framework is believed to be imperative and unique as it provides a more systematic way to examine the adoption of integration technologies, extends the established norms for EAI adoption by utilising a prioritisation technique to classify the importance of factors. The contribution of the research extends the literature on EAI and identifies theoretical and practical opportunities that facilitate LGAs in their decision-making process to produce more robust proposals for EAI adoption.     

Modeling the adoption rates of manufacturing technology innovations by small US manufacturers: a longitudinal investigation

This study provides conclusive evidence to support the view that small plants are slower than larger plants to adopt manufacturing innovations. This empirical study based on over 1000 US manufacturing plants engaged in producing discrete products, studies the adoption of manufacturing technologies in small plants relative to large plants between 1993 and 1997.Under the assumption that small manufacturers are disadvantaged, several federal and state programs have been created to assist small manufacturers in acquiring and adopting manufacturing innovations. Through quantification of technology adoption in small manufacturing firms, this study’s findings reveal which manufacturing innovations are in greater need of governmental assistance programs. While small plants are making progress over time in catching up with larger plants in computerized technology use, they are not making similar progress in adopting manufacturing technology innovations in soft technologies. Several propositions for future research and recommendations for public policy are offered.     

情景规划在新兴技术动态评估中的应用/FONT

针对现有新兴技术评估方法的不足,分析了将情景规划应用于新兴技术动态评估的思路与方法;在此基础上,开发了一个新兴技术动态评估的过程模型,并以微硬盘技术为例,说明了该模型的特点与应用过程。     

双参数指数分布族参数的经验贝叶斯估计的渐近性

在LINEX损失函数下,讨论双参数指数分布位置参数的Bayes估计。假设样本是iid,利用概率密度函数的核估计方法,构造边缘分布的概率密度估计,按照参数的Bayes估计形式,提出参数的经验Bayes(EB)估计函数,在一定的条件下可以证明所提出的这个经验Bayes估计函数是渐近最优的,并获得其收敛速度,文尾举例说明满足定理条件的参数的先验分布是存在的。     

美国国防技术发展——改进新技术转化的管理流程

推进技术革新对于美国国防部保持其绝对优势是至关重要的。而推进技术革新的关键是：如何将有前景的技术从实验室和商业环境迅速转换到实际应用中。目前,美国国防部正在尝试新的管理办法和标准,以解决技术转化过程中存在的问题。文中给出了三个新技术转型项目：TTI、DACP和快速反应基金,它们对新的管理流程进行了实践。评估结果表明,虽然新的管理流程仍存在着一定问题,并且也还不能确定其最终的影响和效果;但在已完成项目的实施过程中,应用新的管理流程的确加快了技术革新、节省了开支、使国防部从商业性公司得到更多的创新性技术以应用于军事领域。     

Business models for sustainable technologies: Exploring business model evolution in the case of electric vehicles

Sustainable technologies challenge prevailing business practices, especially in industries that depend heavily on the use of fossil fuels. Firms are therefore in need of business models that transform the specific characteristics of sustainable technologies into new ways to create economic value and overcome the barriers that stand in the way of their market penetration. A key issue is the respective impact of incumbent and entrepreneurial firms’ path-dependent behaviour on the development of such new business models. Embedded in the literature on business models, this paper explores how incumbent and entrepreneurial firms’ path dependencies have affected the evolution of business models for electric vehicles. Based on a qualitative analysis of electric vehicle projects of key industry players over a five-year period (2006–2010), the paper identifies four business model archetypes and traces their evolution over time. Findings suggest that incumbent and entrepreneurial firms approach business model innovation in distinctive ways. Business model evolution shows a series of incremental changes that introduce service-based components, which were initially developed by entrepreneurial firms, to the product. Over time there seems to be some convergence in the business models of incumbents and entrepreneurs in the direction of delivering economy multi-purpose vehicles.     

基于价值网络的智能可持续产品服务系统运作范式

探索一种跨组织的智能协同制造、服务模式,旨在为服务经济和"工业4.0"环境下的现代企业整合与协同竞争提供新范式。通过将价值网络、可持续、基于语义Web的智能信息技术和协同创新等理念引入产品服务系统(PSS),提出基于价值网络的智能可持续产品服务系统(VNbISPSS)概念;进而,通过整合扩充商业模式画布和两种价值网络模型建立形式化模型,基于语义Web技术和Web服务资源框架(WSRF)建立语义模型,采用图建模方法建立运行机制模型。最后以XPhone手机的生产服务为例,测试VNbISPSS模型的有效性。     

Big data for the comprehensive data analysis of IT organizations

Businesses have begun using IT apps for a variety of reasons in recent years. The rapid advancement of new technologies has opened up vast prospects for businesses to digitise their operations, enhance their use of information systems, and compete more effectively in the global marketplace. Information technology (IT) businesses can benefit greatly from Big Data analytics due to the depth and breadth of their data analysis. Big data can be used to examine IT departments in the following ways: performance analysis, forecast maintenance, security analysis, and resource analysis. When it comes to boosting their business's dependability, speed, quality, and effectiveness, most companies rely on big data. Companies can gain a competitive edge thanks to the massive amounts of data that big data is able to collect, store, and manage. Big data analytics is being used by a growing number of businesses to make sense of their mountain of data. In this paper, we examine the ways in which IBM, TCS, and Cognizant use big data within their operations. Long-term planning strategies and business intelligence practises are also suggested in this research as means of protecting personal information.     

Building for tomorrow: Assessing the temporal persistence of text classifiers

Performance of text classification models tends to drop over time due to changes in data, which limits the lifetime of a pretrained model. Therefore an ability to predict a model’s ability to persist over time can help design models that can be effectively used over a longer period of time. In this paper, we provide a thorough discussion into the problem, establish an evaluation setup for the task. We look at this problem from a practical perspective by assessing the ability of a wide range of language models and classification algorithms to persist over time, as well as how dataset characteristics can help predict the temporal stability of different models. We perform longitudinal classification experiments on three datasets spanning between 6 and 19 years, and involving diverse tasks and types of data. By splitting the longitudinal datasets into years, we perform a comprehensive set of experiments by training and testing across data that are different numbers of years apart from each other, both in the past and in the future. This enables a gradual investigation into the impact of the temporal gap between training and test sets on the classification performance, as well as measuring the extent of the persistence over time. Through experimenting with a range of language models and algorithms, we observe a consistent trend of performance drop over time, which however differs significantly across datasets; indeed, datasets whose domain is more closed and language is more stable, such as with book reviews, exhibit a less pronounced performance drop than open-domain social media datasets where language varies significantly more. We find that one can estimate how a model will retain its performance over time based on (i) how well the model performs over a restricted time period and its extrapolation to a longer time period, and (ii) the linguistic characteristics of the dataset, such as the familiarity score between subsets from different years. Findings from these experiments have important implications for the design of text classification models with the aim of preserving performance over time.     

新兴技术创新网络“液态化”机理及实证分析

    创新系统“混沌”边缘具有较强的创新潜力,易于新兴技术创新网络的形成与发展。结合生命周期理论,分析了新兴技术形成过程及其与原有技术发展轨迹的关系,深入研究了“液态化”创新网络的形成机理。通过搜集自动驾驶汽车领域专利数据开展了实证分析,运用专利引用分析与社会网络分析相结合的方法,绘制IPC共现网络和专利权人引文网络,通过计算网络各项指标,验证了新兴技术创新网络“液态化”网络的技术特征与知识流动特征。实证结果表明：自动驾驶汽车领域的技术构成具有高异质性、技术领域间存在广泛融合性;知识流动网络存在小世界效应,呈现易流动、流向广、效率高,网络边界模糊,核心创新主体众多且多样化的特点。     

技术路线图——一种新型技术管理工具

现在的商业环境有下列特征:市场和技术变化激烈,竞争加剧,产品的生命周期缩短,技术商业化的时间在缩短。所有这些都需要公司更加注意和理解其所处行业和市场,要把技术整合到战略计划中。而技术路线图是能达到这种效果的一种新兴的技术管理方法,已经被越来越多的企业,行业和国家所采用。而且被证实是有效的技术管理工具。本文将详细介绍技术路线图的根源、其发展状况、界定其定义及其重要作用,简单介绍实践方法,最后指出对我国的启示。     

非正规金融、技术创新与产业结构升级

基于非线性视角,采用时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR)模型,从时间和时点维度对1985年以来我国非正规金融、技术创新与产业结构升级之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：非正规金融、技术进步对产业结构升级的影响具有短期与长期的差异性,即技术创新的短期影响显著大于长期,而非正规金融的长期影响显著大于短期;从总体看,非正规金融、技术进步对产业结构升级存在正向的促进作用,且无论是短期还是长期,产业结构升级对非正规金融较技术创新敏感;非正规金融对技术创新和产业结构升级的影响具有累积冲击效应,而技术创新对产业结构升级表现为及时响应;三者的关系在不同宏观背景下呈现出较为类似的走势,且冲击影响大小有所不同,但是“十五”以来,我国非正规金融与技术创新对产业结构升级的冲击作用几乎没有得到提升。据此,笔者强调在“十三五”规划时期,政府应该充分认识到现阶段对技术创新投入的不足并规范有效地引导非正规金融促进技术的创新,以增加资本投入与技术创新保障产业结构的优化升级以及经济的平稳增长。