危机事件社会影响等级的评价方法研究

一般来说,危机发生后,不同的社会成员受到的影响不同.最先受到影响的是遭遇危机的人员或组织,往往表现在人员伤亡、健康损失、工作耽误、财产损失等.对于危机事件造成的人员的伤亡和财产的损失比较容易计算.而对于时间耽误、心理创伤、声誉损失、公众价值体系的改变等社会影响却难以货币化计算或者准确衡量.危机事件的社会影响评估作为危机管理研究的重要内容,当前尚无有效的评价测量方法.本文从危机事件的人员损失、公共性、新闻性和持续时间四个指标构建危机事件的社会影响评价指标体系.利用2001-2006年期间发生的20起危机事件的相关信息进行实证研究,结果表明该评价指标体系具有较强的可靠性和操作性.     

突发公共事件多情景下的网络舆情危机预警研究

[目的/意义]突发公共事件已成为社会治理难题,探究该事件网络舆情危机预警过程,有助于相关部门科学认知舆情发展态势,提高危机处理能力。[方法/过程]文章首先基于知识元模型,从情景事件、情景驱动要素、情景推理要素、情景目标要素四个方面对网络舆情危机预警情景进行结构性表达,并构建预警情景动态贝叶斯网络模型;其次,结合EM算法对模型进行训练和测试,明确各情景下舆情危机预警重点关注的影响要素;最后,以南京市禄口机场疫情事件为例,对各情景舆情危机预警等级进行评估分析。[结果/结论]训练出来的动态贝叶斯网络具有一定的可靠性,不同情景状态中采取不同的应对方案会对舆情危机预警级别产生不同的影响,为政府及相关部门动态制定危机应急决策提供参考。     

产品伤害危机对品牌绩效指标的影响研究——基于随机模型方法的实证分析

准确评估产品伤害危机对品牌绩效指标的影响是企业进行产品伤害危机管理的前提。本文在对产品伤害危机及品牌绩效测量等相关理论文献回顾的基础上,通过建立NBD-DM随机模型,提供了一种评估产品伤害危机对企业品牌绩效影响的模型方法,并利用一组奶粉品类销售的固定样本组数据以雀巢奶粉碘超标事件为分析对象对该模型方法进行了实证分析。结果表明NBD-DM随机模型是动态测量品牌绩效的有效模型方法,并且证实产品伤害危机对品牌绩效指标的影响短期主要在于对品牌购买频率及其品牌品类需求份额的显著负向影响,而从长期来看,危机将改变NBD-DM模型所描述的稳定市场结构,从而对品牌绩效产生全面负向影响。最后讨论了结论对产品伤害危机管理的实践意义。     

融合自注意力机制和语义词典的危机情绪分类研究

[目的/意义]在社会危机事件发生后,及时、有效地对社交网络上的文本内容进行情绪分类,有助于准确掌握公众情绪状态、优化社会危机事件管控方案。[方法/过程]基于框架语义理论构建危机情绪分类词典和危机情绪类别体系,采用融合自注意力机制的LSTM神经网络分类模型,实现优化的、细粒度的危机情绪分类。[结果/结论]以微博危机事件评论数据为例,通过不同参数的组合以及模型对比实验,获得了较高的准确率,验证了模型的可行性和有效性。为社交网络文本危机情绪分类提供优化的理论模型和方法支持,同时为相关领域的研究提供语义资源。     

试论市场经济下企业的危机处理

本文将以近期发生的宝洁SK-Ⅱ事件为切入点，论述危机事件将会给企业带来的极大损失。危机事件的发生，有其必然性。也有偶然性。企业必须增强危机意识，努力做到防患于未然；危机一旦发生，则应以积极的态度去应对，果断采取措施。并做好总结评估工作。     

出口贸易的外溢效应研究

在分析和运用对外贸易影响和促进经济增长机制和途径的基础上,主要从供给的角度,利用适用性改进后的费德模型,重点对外贸易促进经济增长所表现出来的特征和影响程度的大小进行了探讨,包括引进进口资本品变量、建立以非出口生产部门、初级产品出口部门、工业制成品出口部门三部门为基础的费德模型,研究不同的出口商品结构对经济增长的不同影响和不同的出口部门对非出口部门的技术外溢效应。     

基于系统动力学的道路事故损失评价模型研究

针对现行对道路事故损失评价的问题,本文从系统动力学入手,研究系统各子事件相互联系且很难分层的评价方法,提出了道路事故损失评价的系统动力学模型:首先得出因果关系环图;然后运用灰色聚类分析法对各个影响因子关联程度进行评价;最后应用系统动力学相关理论对整个系统进行综合评价。模拟分析结果表明,该系统比较稳定。     

基于不可运作性输入输出模型的供应链冲击级联影响研究

将应用于宏观经济系统的Inoperability Input-output Model(IIM)拓展应用到供应链鲁棒性评估与优化方面,并根据供应链节点间相互关系特征,提出基于有序加权平均算子的相互关系矩阵评价方法对IIM核心部分进行了改进.以不可运作性和经济损失为指标对突发事件冲击下供应链各节点及整体的鲁棒性进行了评价,尤其对网络间相互依赖关系导致的扰动连锁传播而形成的间接影响进行了量化,以便识别出脆弱环节,有针对性提出鲁棒优化措施.     

羊绒纺织业制造供应链绿色化评价研究

为实现羊绒产品全过程的绿色供应链管理,有必要对羊绒纺织业制造供应链的绿色化程度进行评价.通过对羊绒纺织业制造供应链各阶段对环境的影响及绿色化途径的分析,针对供应链不同阶段的特点开发了基于实现绿色化的手段和绿色化可能实现的环境绩效的羊绒纺织业制造供应链绿色化评价指标体系.根据指标的特点设计了基于三角白化权函数的灰色聚类评估模型的对羊绒纺织业制造供应链整体绿色化程度评价模型,同时基于系统协同度模型设计了评价羊绒纺织业制造供应链各阶段绿色化协同程度的评价方法.特定评价指标的开发与协同度评价的提出有助于提高供应链绿色化评价的准确性并可以为绿色供应链管理决策提供更丰富的信息支持.     

基于技术系数矩阵的灾害影响评估及政策启示

近年来,自然灾害频发,促使人们更加关注灾害造成的社会经济损失。以往的研究多采用传统的技术经济方法评估灾害对某一产业或某一地区带来的直接损失,对评估灾害综合损失(包含间接损失)的研究较少。在列昂捷夫技术系数矩阵的基础上,借鉴了Haimes、Santos等人的方法,充分考虑产业经济系统各子系统之间存在的技术经济关联性,提出了灾害影响的综合评估模型。以我国2008年度的气象灾害为例,分别计算了静、动态情形下的灾害综合影响值,筛选了对灾害较为敏感的产业,提出了相应的政策建议,如根据灾害的关联影响构建新的灾后捐赠机制,灾后应加快受损方的设备、工艺和技术等的更新速度,借助技术进步减少灾害的综合损失等。     

Students' Reactions to the Introduction of Videoconferencing for Classroom Instruction

This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.     

Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.     

Exploring Multiplexity: Social Network Structures in a Computer-Supported Distance Learning Class

A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.     

The Role of Intermediating Institutions in the Diffusion of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI): How Industry Associations Intervened in Denmark, Finland, and Hong Kong

Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.     

How Electronic Publishers are Protecting Against Piracy: Doubts About Technical Systems of Protection

The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.     

Rough Justice: A Statistical Assessment of ICANN's Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy

Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP.     

Prevalence of soft neurological signs in Chinese people

Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.     

Monoculture Rubber Plantations Have Negative Ef ects on Controlling Splash Erosion

<正>In Xishuangbanna,one of China’s most biodiverse regions,landscape has changed dramatically during the past three decades due to the conversion of tropical rainforest to rubber plantations.In steep areas,terraces are often constructed before planting rubber trees,which causes two important changes in the soil:the destabilization of soil in the bench terraces and the increased vulnerability of unvegetated riser faces to erosion.Few studies have documented the nature and intensity of erosion on bench terraces.Prof.LIU Wenjie and his colleagues from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(XTBG)conducted a study in Menglun County(21°5′39″N,101°15′55″E),Xishuangbanna to evaluate the influence     

Chinese Scientists Use Earth Observation Technologies to Study and Protect Wild Camels

<正>Chinese scientists plan to apply Earth Observation technologies to protect the critically endangered wild camels(Camelus ferus).With the help of remote sensing,satellite positioning,geographical information system and wireless sensors networks,they will be able to access the distribution and population of the wild camels and protect their habitats.The project will be carried out by the International Research Center for Wild Camel Conservation,which was jointly established earlier this year by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth(RADI)of the Chinese     

More than Skin Deep – Understand Skin Biology by Means of Dermatogenomics

<正>The Paul Gerson Unna Research Group on Dermatogenomics was founded in October 2012 at the Partner Institute for Computational Biology.The ultimate goal of the group is to understand the biology of skin and skin appendages.