Prognostic relevance of motor talent predictors in early adolescence: A group- and individual-based evaluation considering different levels of achievement in youth football

ABSTRACT

In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players’ selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR < 99. Simulating increasing score cut-off values not only enhanced specificity (correctly identified non-talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics’ prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches’ subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.     

The role of specialisation in the promotion of young football talents: A person-oriented study

Abstract

This paper investigates the controversial question whether it is more effective to promote specialisation in a specific sport at the beginning of a career or whether to encourage a broad range of sports when promoting competitive sports talents in order for them to achieve a high level of performance in adulthood. The issue of promoting talents depends on human developmental processes and therefore raises developmental scientific questions. Based on recent, dynamic-interactionist concepts of development, we assume a person-oriented approach focussing on the person as a whole rather than individual features. Theoretical considerations lead to four interacting factors being summarised to form a subsystem: childhood training. The relative weights of these factors lead to patterns. By relating these to a performance criterion at the age of peak performance, particularly promising developmental patterns may be identified. One hundred fifty-nine former Swiss football talents were retrospectively interviewed about their career and the data analysed using the LICUR method. Two early career patterns were identified as having a favourable influence on adult performance. Both are characterised by an above-average amount of in-club training. One pattern also exhibits an above-average amount of informal football played outside the club, the other above-average scores for activity in other sports. Hence, comprehensive training and practice inside and outside the club form the basis for subsequent football expertise.     

Relative age effect in Spanish association football: its extent and implications for wasted potential

Spain is one of the largest and most successful powers in international youth football, but this success has not extended to the national team. This lack of continued success seems to indicate a loss of potential. The relative age effect has been detected in football in many countries. Understanding the extent of this bias in the youth teams of Spanish elite clubs may help to improve selection processes and reduce the waste of potential. Comparisons between players from: the Spanish Professional Football League, all age categories of these clubs' youth teams, the Under-17 to Under-21 national teams, the national team, and the Spanish population, show a constant tendency to under-represent players from the later months of the selection year at all age groups of youth and Under-17 to Under-21 national teams. Professional and national team players show a similar but diminished behaviour that weakens with ageing, which suggests that talent identification and selection processes can be improved to help better identify potential talent early on and minimize wasted potential.     

足球的“自然选择”和“人工培养”成才模式浅析

更高水平的足球人才、更充足的储备是足球队水平更高的根源。本文对当今世界足球人才成长的“自然选择”和“人工培养”两种模式进行分析,探讨足球人才的发展和培养道路。“自然选择”模式是根据人体生长发育阶段,从低至高发展各级别联赛,让球员在各级别联赛中发展自己的足球志趣和竞技水平,自我选择,适者生存,优胜劣汰,完全尊重球员个体的...     

Relative age effect in Spanish association football: Its extent and implications for wasted potential

Abstract

Spain is one of the largest and most successful powers in international youth football, but this success has not extended to the national team. This lack of continued success seems to indicate a loss of potential. The relative age effect has been detected in football in many countries. Understanding the extent of this bias in the youth teams of Spanish elite clubs may help to improve selection processes and reduce the waste of potential. Comparisons between players from: the Spanish Professional Football League, all age categories of these clubs' youth teams, the Under-17 to Under-21 national teams, the national team, and the Spanish population, show a constant tendency to under-represent players from the later months of the selection year at all age groups of youth and Under-17 to Under-21 national teams. Professional and national team players show a similar but diminished behaviour that weakens with ageing, which suggests that talent identification and selection processes can be improved to help better identify potential talent early on and minimize wasted potential.     

“Macro-structure” of developmental participation histories and “micro-structure” of practice of German female world-class and national-class football players

The study examined the “micro-structure” of football practice and the “macro-structure” of participation history of female professional football players. Participants were 29 German 1st league (Bundesliga) players, 14 of whom played on the senior national team (Olympic Champion in 2016). A questionnaire recorded the players’ positions, proportions of physical conditioning, drill-type skill exercises and playing forms within coach-led football practice, and the volume of coach-led practice and peer-led play, in both football and other sports, from childhood to adulthood. Analyses revealed that most athletes played various attacker and defender positions during development. National team players differed from their Bundesliga peers by less physical conditioning and greater proportions of playing forms within football practice. National team players also accumulated less total football practice until age 18 years, but more peer-led football and coach-led practice in other sports compared to their Bundesliga counterparts. Based on these variables, a binary logistic regression classified 93% of the national team and Bundesliga players correctly. Conclusion: A combination of long-term coach-led football practice involving a relatively large proportion of playing forms with considerable childhood/adolescent peer-led football play and coach-led practice in other sports may have facilitated adult performance among German female world-class football players.     

系统科学视角下中国足球的改革与发展路径研究

本文运用系统科学的方法对我国足球改革热点和发展路径进行研究认为,足球是一个发展缓慢的动态开放的系统。从系统科学的角度分析了我国国家队成绩不理想、职业足球发展缓慢、青少年人才培养落后和足球德缺失等问题。我国足球改革应重点谋划管理服务、青少年人才培养、足球文化与外部环境的综合改革,推动我国足球的科学化可持续发展。     

The relative age effect in the German Football TID Programme: Biases in motor performance diagnostics and effects on single motor abilities and skills in groups of selected players

Abstract

This study examined the disturbing effects of relative age on the talent identification process in the talent development programme of the German Football Association. The bias in the selection rate was examined via the extent of relative age effects. The bias in motor performance diagnostics was analysed by comparing the motor performance of selected players with normal motor development. The mechanisms underlying the relative age biases in motor performance were examined by modelling the direct and indirect effects of relative age on single motor performance tests for sprint, running agility, dribbling and ball passing and control. Data from 10,130 selected football players from the U12 to U15 age groups were collected in autumn 2010. The birth distribution differed significantly from the reference population with approximately 61% of the players born in the first half of the year. The selection probability was approximately two times higher for players born in the first quarter of the year than for players born in the last quarter. Revised motor performance diagnostics showed better results on average for relatively younger players. Path analysis revealed significant direct and indirect relative age effects for physiologically demanding tests and almost no effects for technically demanding tests. Large sample sizes allowed high resolution in relative age with additional informational content and multivariate modelling of the complex relationships among relative age, physical development and motor performance. The results are discussed on how relative age affects the effectiveness and fairness of talent identification and development processes.     

德国足球协会天才球员发展计划效果评估

1998年世界杯和2000年欧锦赛中,德国国家队过早出局没有获得好成绩。究其原因在于,没有完全促进天才球员的发展。没有完全利用职业俱乐部在青少年球员发展方面的潜力。缺乏地区范围内11岁至14岁青年球员的筛选和培养。出于这些原因,德国足协从1998年开始,从两方面着手改善天才球员发展系统。通过大约10年的改革和发展,德国足球协会对其天才球员发展计划(TFP)从四个方面即国家队球员的成分分析、德甲和德乙联赛球员成分分析、国家青年队球员成分分析和青训教练员分析,进行了效果评估。从而,总结了此发展计划对德国足球发展的影响。     

An exploration of young professional football players’ perceptions of the talent development process in England

The identification and development of players in English professional football has become an increasingly significant topic of debate given the historical perceived underperformance of the English national team at international tournaments. To enhance understanding of the challenges and barriers experienced by English youth footballers, the authors explore the developmental experiences of English professional football players from different levels of the English football pyramid. Professional players (N = 11) from football clubs in the top four professional divisions in England took part in individual semi-structured interviews, which were analysed inductively using thematic analysis. The data revealed three interrelated themes that were perceived to mediate player identification and development pathways at professional clubs. Pathways for young players to progress and experience first-team competitive football differed when the level of the league that the players operated within was considered, with significant issues also raised relating to the suitability of the under 21 league structure, the importance attached to the educational welfare of young players, and variations in the identification of player attributes. This study sheds new light on the priorities and processes of talent development and education provision in English football.     

卡塔尔足球“归化+青训”模式的发展历程及启示

基于国际足联颁布"艾尔顿法则"的基础上,对卡塔尔足球"归化+青训"模式的发展历程进行研究,探讨出一条适合于中国足球现状的"中国足球特色归化之路",旨在为我国归化外籍球员及青训的道路提供启示,也为我国足球事业发展提供参考。结果显示:直接归化国外实力强劲球员为本国出战,在短时间内可能会提高成绩,但由于缺少了本国民族认同感,对我国足球的长远发展并无明显促进作用;而归化阿拉伯地区的精英小球员,经本国青训培养,可增加球员的归属感以及文化认同感,在球队实力提升的基础上,还会使归化球员与本土球员之间的关系变得紧密不可分。     

Consequences of the limit on foreign players in Russian football

This paper examines how a limit on foreign players has influenced national football in Russia. For this purpose, the effects on competition in the league, number of new young players in the national team and commercial value are investigated. Both positive and negative effects are examined. On the one hand, a quota on foreign players raised the competition in the Russian Premier League and captured attention of club owners on the development of youth academies. On the other hand, the negative effects included the reduction in the number of young players in the Russia national team, and the restriction in the invitation of international stars slowed down the growth of match attendance and commercial value. Therefore, because of the current limit, Russia became less competitive. However, if some of the measures suggested in this paper were to be implemented, Russia might improve its development of national football.     

天才筛选与运动导向：德国二年级儿童运动表现能力对青少年足球运动员早期成功的影响

足球是世界第一运动,在德国拥有广泛的群众基础,那么如何有效地对足球运动员进行科学合理的筛选就成为了一项重要的课题。本文由德国拜罗伊特大学体育系运动训练科学小组完成,目的是为了揭示足球人才在一般运动测试中所表现的中期预后有效性以及从实验结果计算出的足球特定表现分数。在此之前已经对包括体操、滑雪和网球在内的几项人才筛选计划实施了运动诊断分析。然而,与大多数其他运动相比,足球运动对这种早期测试的预测价值尚不清楚。测试对象由参与德国富尔达地区运动表现能力测试（FMC）的U9二年级儿童组成（N=2 965）。FMC是一个对测试者基础运动表现能力的筛查,由两个人体测量学特征参数和德国运动能力表现测试（GMT6-18）的8个测试项目组成,并增加了一个投掷球测试。测试数据来自2011-2014年在德国富尔达地区参与测试的所有儿童,并记录了至2016-2017赛季结束时（2017年9月30日）选择足球（N=316）的儿童的足球比赛表现水平。然后依据比赛表现水平的高低将球员分别分配到4个不同的表现级别中,并使用ANOVA,比值比和判别分析法确定运动测试的预后有效性,并将测试结果与测试儿童在U12~U15年龄段所表现出的足球运动表现水平进行分析,最终得出9项基础运动测试的预后相关性。     

测试休闲限制协商模型：中国马拉松参与行为研究

参照休闲限制理论,编制马拉松参与行为问卷,对全国301位马拉松参与者进行问卷调查,并对所获得的数据进行结构方程分析,测试休闲限制协商模型在马拉松运动中的应用。研究探讨了动力、限制、协商因素和马拉松参与行为之间的关系,发现了动力对马拉松参与行为的重要影响及两条不同的影响路径,结果接受感知-限制-减少修正模型。进一步分析发现：人际限制、结构性限制是阻碍马拉松参与行为的主要因素;马拉松跑者在遭遇限制因素时,会在技术、时间、经济方面采取协商策略。     

针对我国女子足球运动社会认可度低的思考

我国国家女子足球队的成绩不断滑坡,后备力量匮乏是最重要的原因之一。我国现阶段从事女子足球运动的人数仅为几千人,反观欧美一些强国的注册人数是几十万甚至更多。失去后备人才的市场,就意味着我国女子足球运动将失去在世界足坛的强国地位。我国女子足球运动后备力量短缺是这项运动在我国的社会认可度低造成的,文章通过对天津、西安、太原等地的普通居民进行的调查问卷,分析出不同地域对女子足球运动认可度的差异,并提出建议。     

对青少年足球运动员文化素质的分析与研究

我国青少年足球运动员的培养与发展决定了国家队的综合素质和水平。通过对中外青少年运动员培养体系的对比研究发现,中国青少年运动员培养的关键问题在于培根教育。人才培养体系的形成必须适应新形势下的管理体制和运行机制,把教育体育与竞技体育结合起来,把青少年足球运动员的培养纳入一个文化教育的组成部分,重视青少年足球运动员在足球兴趣和文化学习上的培养,克服急功近利的思想,提高他们的文化素质。     

中国足球冲出亚洲后的思考

采用文献资料研究方法，从足球训练体制、人才培养、竞赛制度等方面的现状、存在的问题、改进的方法等分析入手，论述了中国足球冲出亚洲后，青少年足球后备人才培养的重要性。     

Motivational predictors of prosocial and antisocial behaviour in football

This study examined (a) the main and interactive effects of goal orientations and perceived motivational climate on prosocial and antisocial behaviour, and (b) whether number of seasons one has played for the team interacts with motivational climate in predicting prosocial and antisocial behaviour in association football. Participants were 325 male association football players, whose age ranged from 12 to 17 years. Athletes completed questionnaires measuring frequency of prosocial and antisocial behaviours in football, goal orientation, motivational climate and social desirability, and indicated the number of seasons they had played for their current team. Regression analyses revealed that task orientation and mastery climate were positive predictors of prosocial behaviour, whereas ego orientation and performance climate were positive predictors of antisocial behaviour. In addition, task orientation negatively predicted antisocial behaviour, while ego orientation negatively predicted prosocial behaviour. No significant interactions between task and ego orientation and mastery and performance motivational climate were found. Finally, mastery climate negatively predicted antisocial behaviour for those who had played many seasons for the team. In conclusion, strengthening task orientation and mastery climate and weakening ego orientation may enhance prosocial behaviour. However, for antisocial conduct to be eliminated from the context of association football, ego orientation and performance climate need to be tempered, as these constructs exert unique independent effects on antisocial behaviour.     

新时代校园足球人才培养分析

自校园足球上升为国家战略以来,校园足球已成为我国体教融合改革的重要把手。校园足球不再仅仅作为学校体育课程教育的一部分,而是更多地承担起我国足球后备人才培养的重要责任。该文通过对新时代足球人才需求趋势的探究,揭示校园足球人才模式对我国足球后备人才培养的重要意义;从政策颁布和执行、资源配置、人才流通等方面分析新时代我国校园足球人才培养的现实困境,针对这些困境提出切实有效的解决途径,以促进校园足球人才培养体系的建立,有助于我国足球人才培养的可持续发展,进而为我国的足球项目崛起打好基础。     

Motivational predictors of prosocial and antisocial behaviour in football

Abstract

This study examined (a) the main and interactive effects of goal orientations and perceived motivational climate on prosocial and antisocial behaviour, and (b) whether number of seasons one has played for the team interacts with motivational climate in predicting prosocial and antisocial behaviour in association football. Participants were 325 male association football players, whose age ranged from 12 to 17 years. Athletes completed questionnaires measuring frequency of prosocial and antisocial behaviours in football, goal orientation, motivational climate and social desirability, and indicated the number of seasons they had played for their current team. Regression analyses revealed that task orientation and mastery climate were positive predictors of prosocial behaviour, whereas ego orientation and performance climate were positive predictors of antisocial behaviour. In addition, task orientation negatively predicted antisocial behaviour, while ego orientation negatively predicted prosocial behaviour. No significant interactions between task and ego orientation and mastery and performance motivational climate were found. Finally, mastery climate negatively predicted antisocial behaviour for those who had played many seasons for the team. In conclusion, strengthening task orientation and mastery climate and weakening ego orientation may enhance prosocial behaviour. However, for antisocial conduct to be eliminated from the context of association football, ego orientation and performance climate need to be tempered, as these constructs exert unique independent effects on antisocial behaviour.