Cinema Demand in Spain: A Cointegration Analysis

In this paper we explain the decline in cinema attendance in Spain since 1968. We use a cointegration analysis to estimate an individual demand function for cinema, with annual data and in terms of average attendance per inhabitant. We find that cinema is a luxury good and that its demand is elastic with respect to its price. We also show that television acts as a deterrent with regard to cinema attendance. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Live and prerecorded popular music consumption

Changing consumption habits have rearranged the popular music market in the last decade, and a pattern in which live music attendance gets an increasing share of the market has emerged. This work analyzes the demand for the popular music sector considering its double dimension as supplier of live concerts and prerecorded music. We use the 2006/2007 wave of Spain’s Survey on Habits and Cultural Practices, and estimate a bivariate probit model for attendance to live concerts and the purchase of prerecorded music. Results allow us to describe the profile of the average and frequent consumer in both markets, which shows some similarities—gender effects and the role of cultural capital—but also striking differences—time restrictions and relation to economic activity, and the use of technology. Finally, we find evidence of demand complementarities, with a direct causal link from prerecorded music to live attendance that helps explain recent institutional changes.     

Rational addiction and cultural goods: the case of the Italian theatregoer

This paper tests whether demand for theatre in Italy is consistent with the model of rational addiction presented in Becker and Murphy (J Polit Econ 96(4):675–700, 1988). Data from a novel 34-year panel on regional annual theatre attendance are used to estimate market demand. Four models are applied to investigate the demand function, and all of these also include per capita income and other control variables as regressors. The first two models are estimated to check whether theatregoers are myopically addicted to theatre. The results suggest that the theatre is an addictive good because past consumption (and prices) significantly raises the marginal utility of current consumption. The third model tests the rational addiction hypothesis, which assumes that future attendance also influences current attendance, whilst past and future prices influence current attendance only indirectly through their impact on past and future attendances. However, our most highly specified model, introducing past and future prices, demonstrates that Italian theatregoers are not myopic but fully rational as outlined in Becker and Murphy (1988). The results demonstrate that the rational addiction hypothesis is applicable not only to “harmful” addictions such as alcohol, cigarettes and drug consumption, but also to “beneficial” addictions, such as theatre attendance. This result has important policy implications because theatre is one of the most subsidised performing arts in Italy; if theatregoers are fully rational, policy makers can influence theatre attendance using alternative policy instruments (price and income), thereby reducing government expenditure on theatre subsidies.     

Tourism flows and the demand for regional and city theatres in Austria

This paper investigates the impact of tourism flows on demand for large regional and city theatres in Austria over the period from 1972 to 2011 (39 years). The results are obtained by applying an aggregated theatre demand function for both residents and tourists. The elasticity of theatre attendance in response to tourism is estimated along with other standard demand variables such as ticket price and income. The quality factors and theatre-specific effects are also included. The tourism flows variables are derived using detailed data set on tourist arrivals and their overnight counts, and they are also split between domestic and foreign tourists. To measure the impact of tourism flows on theatre demand, three alternative theatre markets specifications are considered. The total elasticity of attendance per capita in response to tourism is estimated between 15 and 20 %, indicating that increasing the number of arrivals by two tourists per resident in the relevant market would generate an increase in theatre attendance by 581–680 thousand visitors per year. The role of tourism flows is found to be particularly important for attendance at opera, operetta and musicals as opposed to attendance at drama performances. The analysis also reveals that foreign, non-German tourists have a positive impact on theatre attendance, whereas domestic tourists do not contribute significantly to higher demand for Austrian theatres.     

Markets of Islam: performative charity and the Muslim middle classes in Turkey

ABSTRACT

This article examines the ways in which middle class Muslims in Turkey talk about Islamic ‘community’ and analyses these discourses in relation to the phenomenon of market Islam. The evidence is drawn from the author’s ethnographic fieldwork with donors, managers, and volunteers of a government friendly Islamic NGO, the Light House (Deniz Feneri Sosyal Yard?mla?ma ve Dayan??ma Derne?i) in 2009–2010, followed by subsequent trips in 2013 and 2015. I argue that Islamic charity is not merely a calculative economic behaviour or a reflection of deep-seated religious values, but rather a performative site of market Islam. In seeking to reconcile a faith-based understanding of charity with diverse interpretations of the neoliberal economy, I show that middle-class Muslims adhered to two discourses of ‘community’: whereas donors saw charitable giving as a market-enhancing mechanism, NGO managers defined their charitable work as part of an Islamic project focused on economic redistribution. Although they conceptualized the relationship between faith and markets in divergent ways, both discourses of market Islam posit ‘community’ as an intrinsic component of governing the poor in Turkey.     

DVD sales and the R-rating puzzle

In the last decade, attendance at movie theaters has been relatively stagnant, while sales of digital versatile discs (DVDs) have grown dramatically. In this paper, we look at the factors determining sales of individual DVDs in the United States. Using data on new motion pictures released on DVD between 2006 and 2008, we find the demand for new DVDs is price-inelastic and that DVD sales are counter-cyclical. We find that previous box office success has strong positive effects on DVD sales. Production budget also has a positive effect on DVD sales, albeit indirectly through its effect on box office revenues. Critical acclaim has significant positive effects on both box office revenue and DVD sales, but the effect is smaller in regard to DVDs. There is some evidence to suggest that DVD sales are higher for movies with more sexual content and more violent content and lower for movies with more profanity, but these effects are indirect through the changes in the box office of these movies. We find that sales of R-rated DVDs are not as dependent upon critical acclaim as movies of other ratings, and are thus less risky for movie studios to produce. Our findings provide another explanation for the R-rating puzzle.     

Spatial competition and market share: an application to motion pictures

This paper presents an empirical assessment of movie-theatre attendance in two major metropolitan markets and provides strong support for the importance of spatial characteristics in determining attendance. We consider the hypothesis that attendance at a particular movie theatre reflects a tension between two effects: a negative competition effect and a positive agglomeration effect. We find evidence that the competition effect dominates. Further, we identify a pattern of systematic spatial decay in the impact of this effect on demand.     

Do the arts make you happy? A quantile regression approach

Compared to other leisure time activities, the effect of arts attendance on happiness has received less attention and studies of related topics have produced mixed results, identifying either no effect or very small effects. We investigate this issue using a large (N = 7753) sample from the UK. In contrast to earlier studies, quantile regression is used to allow the relationship between arts attendance and other controls and happiness to vary across different levels of happiness. The relationship found in prior studies is confirmed, but the quantile regression results show that the nature of the relationship varies across the distribution of the happiness variable. A significant relationship is found at the lower quartile, and a moderate relationship (significant at the 10% level) is found at the median level.     

Frequency of museum attendance: motivation matters

Some recent empirical contributions have highlighted that tourists often go to museums yet appear to extract little utility from the experience. We argue that this is often the case with agents who visit museums only while on holiday and results from a temporary lack of substitute experience goods or compliance with a must-do list. If such agents behaved according to Stigler and Becker’s rational addiction theory, they would also visit museums while at home. However, most do not, which makes them constantly occasional consumers. We indirectly test for the presence of constantly occasional museum attendance by tourists, using data from a survey conducted in 2012 at Vittoriale, the most popular museum at Lake Garda, a renowned Italian tourist destination. By applying multiple correspondence analysis to a question on motivations to visit the museum, we obtain two dimensions of motivation: one based on a search for knowledge and the other based on a more recreational attitude. Identification of the latter is a new finding in itself. We include these dimensions as regressors in a model used to explain museum attendance. We find, as expected, that light consumption negatively affects attendance. We therefore argue that empirical analyses of museum attendance should not disregard light motivation as a possible driver.     

Programmatic choices and the demand for theatre: the case of Flemish theatres

Theatre experts generally agree that the Flemish theatre has flourished artistically over the period 1980–2000. Attendance, on the other hand, has declined significantly. Following Lancaster’s characteristics approach, we identify several output characteristics of individual theatre productions. Using a panel of 59 Flemish theatres, we examine the impact on demand of both these output characteristics and of traditional determinants such as own price, income and the price of substitutes. Differences in the relevant geographical market for touring and non-touring theatres are considered. We find that the nature of the artistic output affects demand. Theatregoers prefer large productions (in terms of cast size), plays by Dutch-speaking playwrights and revivals of old productions. Own price and consumer income have the expected negative and positive effects on attendance. Observed trends toward a decreasing proportion of new plays, an increasing presence of plays by Dutch-speaking playwrights, and increasing consumer income had a stimulating effect on attendance. These trends have been offset, however, by trends toward smaller cast sizes and higher ticket prices as well as by unobserved factors captured by time dummies. The net result has been a considerable drop in attendance.

Signaling for access to high-demand markets: evidence from the US motion picture industry

We develop a signaling model in which imperfectly competitive firms signal quality through expenditures in segmented markets. Separation in this model results in high-quality firms selling their products in a high-demand, and highly quality elastic, period. Low-quality firms sell their product in a low demand but less quality-sensitive period. A dataset including 1697 US theatrical releases between 1998 and 2008 is compiled and explored for evidence of this separating equilibrium. We find that our measures of signal intensity and realized quality (budgets and critical ratings, respectively) are both significantly greater during high-demand periods. Ticket sales are also shown to be more sensitive to expected quality as measured by budgets during the high-demand season. Other seasonal differences and implications are explored.     

Evaluating three decades of the European Capital of Culture programme: a difference-in-differences approach

We measure the regional impact of the European Capital of Culture programme using a difference-in-differences approach. We compare the regions of cities that hosted the event with the regions of cities that tried to host it but did not succeed. GDP per capita in hosting regions is 4.5 % higher compared to non-hosting regions during the event, and the effect persists more than 5 years after it. This result suggests that the economic dimension of the event is important and supports claims that the event serves as catalyst for urban regeneration and development.     

Rain and museum attendance: Are daily data fine enough?

I investigate the intraday effects of rain on the demand for indoor leisure. To do so, I use sub-daily museum attendance and weather data to reveal a dynamic response to precipitation that would be obscured using day-level data. I find that the magnitudes and signs of the effects of rainfall vary significantly throughout the day. In some hours, the predicted increase in visitors is nearly three times larger than would be expected from estimates using daily measures. Many individuals appear to actively adjust their plans throughout the day in response to rain, while others’ attendance depends upon prior weather forecasts of rain. Further analysis reveals that visit duration also increases during rainy periods, and visitors are more likely to attend pay-to-enter special exhibits. International visitors make up a greater share of total visitors during periods of observed precipitation. More broadly, this paper establishes the viability and value of working with widely available sub-daily rainfall data to uncover these dynamics.     

Quality Judgements and Demand for French Public Theatre

Regression models often reveal a low statistical significance for the quality variables that are used to explain theatrical demand. I posit that opposing opinions on quality are the cause of this. A regression equation is constructed in order to explain demand, with continuous variables for price and volume, and with dummy variables for drama critics, directors-cum-managers, growth in funding by public authorities and repertoire classification. I use detailed data on demand for French theatrical institutions in 1995 and 1996 to test this model. To some extent, the results support the hypothesis that the media reputation of shows, as expressed in the form of drama reviews, and the artistic reputation of directors-cum-managers, which are listed on the programme, havean opposite effect on attendance. Nevertheless, the least squares coefficients show that the most reliable sign of quality remains the reputation of the theatrical institution.     

Demand for Live Theater with Market Segmentation and Seasonality

Using performance level box-office receipts from the PacificConservatory of the Performing Arts over eight years, we analyzeperformance-level demand for live theater. The disaggregated data allowsus to estimate demand at a particular venue and to characterize theseasonality of demand for live theater. We examine whether the supply ofshows matches the differentiated tastes of theater-goers at each of thethree locations and the sensitivity of demand to critical reviews andprior attendance.     

Demand for Ballet: A Non-Parametric Analysis of the 1995 Royal Ballet Summer Season

Attendance figures for individual seat categories during the 1995 Royal Ballet Summer Season are analysed using a non-parametric median technique. For three out of five categories, demand for full-length ballet turns out to be significantly downward-sloping. The (point) estimates suggest that during the period of observation substantial margins for price cuts existed which would have increased both attendance and revenue.     

Performing arts attendance in Taiwan: who and how often?

This paper uses the logistic regression model and the count data model to identify the determinants of the likelihood and frequency of attendance at performing arts events in Taiwan. Using data collected from a telephone survey, we find that education and income, being determinants of the likelihood of attendance, are not significant in determining frequency of attendance. On the other hand, whereas members of performing arts groups attend more frequently than non-members, holding a membership or not does not seem to affect the likelihood of attendance. Personal relationships with the performing arts industry make one more likely to attend as well as to attend more frequently. Those who more often watch or listen to performing arts programs through the media or pay more attention to performing arts-related information are also likely to participate in live events and participate frequently. Lastly, age dose matter. We further find evidence of both life cycle and human capital effects in performing arts attendance.     

A microeconometric study of theatre demand

We develop a model of theatre demand with learning by consuming, and test some of its implications on a large random sample of theatregoers and non-theatregoers. This seems to be the most comprehensive econometric study of demand for the theatre from individual data. We hypothesize that each time the consumer watches a play, he experiences a degree of pleasant or unpleasant surprise on the basis of which he will revise his future expectations of his own taste. The learning phase is likely to be unusually long for highly differentiated cultural goods. Our set of data contains unique information about the full price and the fixed cost of theatre, the objective quality of the outing, past experience of and taste for the theatre, and consumption of substitute leisure activities such as reading, television and cinema. Our methodology and data enable us to infer price elasticity on survey data from knowledge of theatregoing experience and taste. After controlling for many variables, we conclude that demand for the theatre is price-elastic, which contradicts previous estimates on aggregate time-series data. Moreover, we estimate demand conditional on past attendance after controlling for selectivity bias. Satisfaction reported by consumers after the last play is also estimated and interpreted as an ordinal conditional choice.     

Evidence of the existence of the cost disease in the performing arts

This paper examines the experience of 25 large U.S. orchestras over a 21-year period for the presence or absence of the cost disease. Appropriate measures of input and output are discussed. Measures of productivity, compensation per worker, and unit labor costs are calculated and compared to similar measures for the manufacturing sector. The history of ticket prices and attendance is reviewed, and price and income elasticities of demand are estimated. The relationship between all these variables is explored, and some policy recommendations are offered.The author is grateful to Professor William Baumol and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. She also wishes to thank Heather Dinwiddie and Dan Patterson of the American Symphony Orchestra League for making the orchestra data available. Support for this project was provided by a grant-in-aid of research from Indiana University Southeast.     

On the complementarity between online and offline music consumption: the case of free streaming

From a representative survey of 2,000 individuals, we study whether consumption of music through streaming services, like Spotify or YouTube, is a substitute or a complement to physical music consumption modes, such as CDs and live music. Controlling for the taste for music, various socio-demographic characteristics and the usual determinants of music consumption either offline (radio, TV, friends/relatives) or online (online recommendations, social networks), our results show that free music streaming (where the consumer does not possess the music but only has access to it) has no significant effect on CD sales and affects positively live music attendance, but only for national or international artists who are more likely to be available on streaming services.