基于SEIR模型的高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略

针对高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略问题,借用传染病模型的分析思路,基于SEIR模型构建了的高碳产业低碳技术扩散模型,在此基础上采用anylogic系统动力学分析软件构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散的系统动力学模型,并进行系统仿真。仿真结果显示,随着参数的变化,高碳产业低碳技术扩散平衡点和活跃程度也会发生变化,当高碳产业低碳技术扩散基本再生数大于1时,一旦有新的低碳技术扩散源,低碳技术将在企业之间不断扩散,并最终进入某一个平衡状态;当基本再生数小于1时,无论刚开始有多少企业进行低碳技术传播,系统最终将进入无低碳技术扩散的平衡状态。根据仿真结果有针对性的提出四条对策：（1）多渠道创造低碳技术扩散源;（2）多层次提升低碳技术转移意愿;（3）多方法提高低碳技术转移成功率;（4）多方位提升低碳技术使用率。     

创新发展的“可持续转型”理论溯源与研究发展路径分析

可持续转型（sustainability transitions,ST）作为创新政策研究的一个新兴领域已经引起了学术界的关注,但是还缺乏全面的总结和分析。研究全面回顾了1981—2020年间可持续转型研究领域的1990篇SSCI文献,以及国内的相关理论和政策研究。研究综合了定性分析,以及共引网络分析、主路径分析这两种定量分析方法。共引网络分析ST研究是在技术转型与可持续社会技术系统转型治理两个与文献计量学研究相关的开创性研究的影响下发展起来的。基于主路径分析,确定了ST研究轨迹分为三个阶段：（1）多层级视角分析框架结合转型治理构建可持续转型理念和框架;（2）多学科领域对可持续转型治理过程与相关理念和框架批判性、系统性的继承发展;（3）可持续转型政策研究。关于创新发展的“可持续转型”研究的主题主要包括五大方面：（1）可持续转型的多层次视角研究分析框架;（2）可持续转型治理;（3）可持续转型创新政策;（4）可持续转型地理学研究;（5）可持续转型的城市与社区研究。还包括一些交叉研究分支,比如能源转型。     

中国省域建筑业碳锁定效应时空演进

建筑业碳中和是实现国家碳中和进程中最重要的部分之一,因此有必要探究区域建筑业在经济发展过程中的高碳依赖规律。本文从技术、制度、经济、社会维度,基于中国30个省份2000—2018年面板数据,采用模糊集定性比较分析法,揭示了建筑业碳锁定形成机理,进而结合面板数据集合论方法,探究区域建筑业碳锁定效应的时空演进规律和高碳依赖规律。结果发现：①驱动建筑业碳锁定形成的6条高碳路径可归纳为制度锁定、产业锁定、技术锁定与社会锁定4种典型碳锁定类型,工业化水平提高、居民消费水平增长、城市化快速扩张及环境规制缺失是导致建筑业高碳锁定的主要驱动因素;②抑制建筑业碳锁定形成的4条低碳路径可总结为低城市化低创新型、高投入低创新型、高投入高创新型3种模式;③区域建筑业碳锁定效应具有较大的时空异质性,时间上表现为高碳锁定趋势的加深及低碳模式的瓦解,空间上不同区域之间的路径依赖存在较大差异。本文研究成果有助于在地方层面制定建筑领域的碳达峰时间图、路线图和施工图,对实现区域自主探索低碳发展路径,顺利实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。     

国家复杂产品生产能力——一个基于IPO范式的思考

从经济学"投入-生产-产出"(IPO)范式的过程视角,探讨以创新为核心思想的复杂产品生产能力(包括技术能力和管理能力),并构建从资源投入、组织范式到复杂产品生产,再到生产绩效产出的全过程能力分析框架。分析表明,国家复杂产品生产能力是一个系统,需要用系统思维方式构建更为宏大的理论;以及,更要体现政策研究的规范性、描述性和工具性的统一。     

复杂产品生产能力研究：一个基于IPO范式的思考

复杂产品是“中国制造2025”的重要组成部分之一,已日益成为现代经济的“技术资产骨架”和国家经济实力的象征。鉴于目前尚无成果专门针对复杂产品生产能力展开研究,本文从经济学“投入-生产-产出”（IPO）范式的过程视角,探讨了以创新为核心思想的复杂产品生产能力（包括技术能力和管理能力）,并构建了从资源投入、组织范式到复杂产品生产,再到生产绩效产出的全过程能力分析框架。分析表明,相关分阶段研究理论基础已经比较清晰,但国家复杂产品生产能力是一个系统,需要用系统思维方式构建更为宏大的理论,本文迈出了起始的一步;以及,今后对国家复杂产品生产能力的研究,更要体现政策研究的规范性、描述性和工具性的统一。     

中国高碳制造业碳排放时空演变及其驱动因素

中国高碳制造业碳排放研究有助于推进中国工业绿色可持续发展。本文采用中国省域制造业能源消费数据,利用IPCC碳排放系数法、空间自相关分析法、动态空间面板模型,分析2006—2015年间中国30个省（市、区）（除港澳台、西藏外）高碳制造业碳排放时空演变及其驱动因素。研究发现：①除北京和上海外,其他省域高碳制造业碳排放均呈现不同程度的增长,碳排放“热点区”集聚在渤海湾、华北平原等区域;②高碳制造业碳排放存在显著的路径依赖以及空间溢出效应;③经济规模扩大是造成高碳制造业碳排放量增加的首要因素,而产业结构调整是造成其碳排放减少的重要因素;④资源禀赋水平提高、固定资产投资增强会促进高碳制造业碳排放的正向空间溢出,导致邻省碳排放增加,而技术水平提高、产业结构调整、对外开放度提高、外商投资增加,则有利于邻省高碳制造业碳排放减少。因而,在高碳制造业碳减排过程中,各省应突破省域界限,形成联动协调机制,通过优势互补、打破技术创新瓶颈,突破原有认知锁定,解锁不合理产业政策,在完成碳减排目标的同时实现整个工业绿色化转型升级。     

社会-技术转型多层级视角:形成背景、理论渊源及构成框架

近年来逐步形成和发展起来的社会-技术转型理论成为解决环境与社会可持续发展问题的主导性理论,并形成了多个理论分支。作为其分支之一的社会-技术转型多层级视角理论,以整个系统为分析对象,将社会、政治、文化等因素纳入分析框架,强调通过宏观、中观和微观三个层级之间动态、非均衡的协同演化,推动系统整体的变革与创新,成为当前理解和推动可持续发展的主流分析框架。为了系统把握这一理论内涵,本文讨论了社会-技术转型多层级视角的形成背景,从演化经济学、创新社会学、制度理论等多学科角度探讨其理论渊源,系统分析宏观、中观和微观三个层级的构成及特点。在此基础上,进一步探讨通过上述三个层级之间动态的非线性相互作用推动可持续转型的演进过程、阶段特点及表现形式,以期丰富系统创新、可持续发展等的理论成果。     

复杂产品系统创新的动态能力构建——基于探索性案例研究

动态能力是系统集成开发商实现复杂产品系统创新的关键能力．为构建复杂产品系统创新的动态能力维度,运用探索性案例研究方法,对中国北车集团大连机车车辆有限公司的产品创新进行了探索性案例研究．研究发现：复杂产品系统创新的动态能力由三个维度以及六个子维度组成,具体包括：客户导向的感知能力（政策搜索和高管社会资本）、多组织协同的控制能力（集成创新管理和自我组织网络）、交互学习能力（技术获取和知识吸收）．     

我国企业低碳技术创新中的锁定效应及实证研究

低碳技术创新是实现低碳经济的关键所在。通过对深圳市150家企业的实地调查发现,部分企业低碳技术创新进程缓慢,企业在低碳技术创新中所面临的创新困境直接或间接地与现有技术的制约相关。可见,锁定效应在企业技术创新中广泛存在。文章在深入分析锁定效应构成因素的基础上结合实证调研结果,剖析锁定效应的各构成要素对企业低碳技术创新的影响程度,并试图寻找打破技术锁定和加快企业低碳技术创新进程的推动力。     

低碳能源技术发展战略与路径选择

本文通过高碳能源与低碳能源的比较研究,揭示了低碳能源技术发展是实现经济社会低碳化发展和转型的基础;通过分析低碳能源技术发展的制约因素,提出了加大低碳能源研发的投入,加快推进低碳技术的产业化,加强政府的政策导向力度,发挥市场的资源配置的功能是促进低碳能源技术发展的有效路径选择。     

数据基础设施赋能碳达峰碳中和的动态过程机制

面对我国实现碳达峰碳中和面临的系统性认识和行动方案、数字化手段欠缺等挑战，需要从理论层面探究新型数据基础设施如何协同推进数字中国战略和碳达峰碳中和的国家战略。本文基于对数据要素驱动创新发展和数据基础设施赋能行业数智化的本质特征分析，建构“数据－机制－使能”过程视角下数据基础设施赋能“双碳”的动态整合理论框架，系统论述碳中和数据银行的系统架构和这一新型数据基础设施助力碳达峰碳中和、实现多维价值创造的多层次动态过程机制；同时指出该机制面临数据基础设施运行成本高、区域行业数智化和低碳化高质量发展协同难度大，以及“双碳”多线程、多路径目标实现阻力大等现实挑战，并提出通过制度创新和技术创新双轮驱动、打通碳达峰碳中和数据融通壁垒、健全和完善新时代数据基础设施等对策。     

Uncovering the link between governance as an innovation process and socio-economic regime transition in cities

A major proportion of the world’s population will be located in cities by 2030. With cities globally facing challenges due to the social exclusion of significant proportions of their populace, new thinking is needed on ways to correlate the competing socio-economic goals of various actors. This study sought to uncover the link between governance in cities as an innovation process and socio-economic regime transition towards a more equitable urban society. To do so, we draw on transition management thinking to consider urban regime transitions evolving in a temporal and incremental manner and in a multi-level context. We sought expansion from a delimited focus on socio-technical regimes in transition management literature to incorporate the notion of urban socio-economic regimes. This involved integrating aspects of reflexive governance and politics in a city context with a basic ontology of complex social systems and their evolutionary dynamics that underlies transition management approaches. Our focus is on learning by doing and experimentation as well as participation of citizens with other key city actors in a radically new process of mutual learning that creates social inclusion. The juxtaposition of national, city and community level interactions and their impact on socio-economic regime transition brings into sharp relief the issue of spatial scale and a lack of consideration in transition approaches generally. The study findings reveal a spatial orientation for creating new urban forms of reflexive governance as an innovation process taking place in transition arenas that can trigger new pathways to socio-economic change.     

新能源汽车产业的政策保护与利基构建——基于多层次产业演化的分析

依据产业演化观点,将新能源汽车视为是在原有交通运输体系中出现的利基,探究社会技术体系的转变和产业政策的保护性作用对新能源汽车利基演化的影响。研究结果表明,在利基层次上,存在着新能源汽车技术利基向市场利基的演化过程,且技术利基宽度与市场利基宽度显著正相关。在社会技术体系层次上,一方面产业政策所形成的保护性空间有助于新能源汽车技术转化,另一方面反映社会技术转变的因素对新能源汽车利基的形成具有显著影响,其中新能源汽车产销比和废气治理投入与市场利基的形成负相关,而燃油价格、消费者购买力和基础设施建设水平与市场利基的形成正相关。据此提出根据产业演化阶段和层次设计产业政策的思路和方案。     

Global socio-technical regimes

This paper addresses the question why socio-technical transitions follow similar trajectories in various parts of the world, even though the relevant material preconditions and institutional contexts vary greatly between different regions and countries. It takes a critical stance on the implicit methodological nationalism in transition studies’ socio-technical regime concept and proposes an alternative ‘global’ regime perspective that embraces the increasingly multi-scalar actor networks and institutional rationalities, which influence transition dynamics beyond national or regional borders. By drawing on globalization theories from sociology and human geography, we show that socio-technical systems often develop institutional rationalities that are diffused via international networks and thus become influential in various places around the world. In so doing, we shed light on the multi-scalar interrelatedness of institutional structures and actors in socio-technical systems and elaborate on the implications for the conceptualization of transition dynamics. The paper illustrates this with the case study of an unsuccessful transition in the Chinese wastewater sector. Recent studies indicate that key decisions on wastewater infrastructure expansion were not only influenced by path-dependencies stemming from China’s national context, but equally (or even more critically) by the dominant rationality of the water sector’s global socio-technical regime. We conclude by discussing the contours of a new research agenda around the notion of global socio-technical regimes.     

Can cities shape socio-technical transitions and how would we know if they were?

This paper asks two - relatively simple - questions: can cities shape socio-technical transitions? And how would we know if they were? There are three key objectives. The first of these is to set out emerging, and in our view, convincing evidence, that large world cities have political aspirations to develop purposive and managed change in the socio-technical organisation of infrastructure networks that can be characterised as ‘systemic’ transitions. The second objective is conceptual in orientation and seeks to address how we understand transitions at the scale of the city, the role of ‘the city’ in undertaking transitions, and review both the strengths and shortcomings of the multi-level perspective (MLP) on socio-technical transitions in addressing this. The third objective is to identify what an urban transition would look like, and then constructs a new framework to conceptualise and research urban transitions. The paper then summarises the key aspects and implications of our argument.     

Toward a spatial perspective on sustainability transitions

In the past decade, the literature on transitions toward sustainable socio-technical systems has made a considerable contribution in understanding the complex and multi-dimensional shifts considered necessary to adapt societies and economies to sustainable modes of production and consumption. However, transition analyses have often neglected where transitions take place, and the spatial configurations and dynamics of the networks within which transitions evolve. A more explicit spatial perspective on sustainability transitions contributes to the extant transitions literature in three ways. Firstly it provides a contextualization on the limited territorial sensitivity of existing literature. Secondly, it explicitly acknowledges and investigates diversity in transition processes, which follows from a ‘natural’ variety in institutional conditions, networks, actor strategies and resources across space. Thirdly, it encompasses not only greater emphasis but also an opportunity to connect to a body of literature geared to understanding the international, trans-local nature of transition dynamics. Concerned with the prevalent lack of attention for the spatial dimensions of sustainability transitions in most studies, this paper seeks to unpick and make explicit sustainability transition geographies from the vantage point of economic geography. The paper argues that there are two interrelated problems requiring attention: the institutional embeddedness of socio-technical development processes within specific territorial spaces, and an explicit multi-scalar conception of socio-technical trajectories. Following these arguments, the paper concludes that transitions research would do well to take a closer look at the geographical unevenness of transition processes from the perspective of global networks and local nodes.     

Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective

Using recent criticisms and suggestions regarding the multi-level perspective as stepping stones, the article aims to enhance the reflexivity in transition debates regarding social theories. To that end, the article discusses seven social science ontologies (rational choice, evolution theory, structuralism, interpretivism, functionalism, conflict and power struggle, relationism), their assumptions on agency and causal mechanisms, and their views on socio-technical transitions and environmental sustainability. The second goal is to position the multi-level perspective on transitions with regard to these ontologies and to identify directions for theoretical extensions. The MLP is characterized not as a grand or unifying theory, but as a middle range theory that makes crossovers to some ontologies and not to others.     

Towards a typology of intermediaries in sustainability transitions: A systematic review and a research agenda

Intermediary actors have been proposed as key catalysts that speed up change towards more sustainable socio-technical systems. Research on this topic has gradually gained traction since 2009, but has been complicated by the inconsistency regarding what intermediaries are in the context of such transitions and which activities they focus on, or should focus on. We briefly elaborate on the conceptual foundations of the studies of intermediaries in transitions, and how intermediaries have been connected to different transition theories. This shows the divergence – and sometimes a lack – of conceptual foundations in this research. In terms of transitions theories, many studies connect to the multi-level perspective and strategic niche management, while intermediaries in technological innovation systems and transition management have been much less explored. We aim to bring more clarity to the topic of intermediaries in transitions by providing a definition of transition intermediaries and a typology of five intermediary types that is sensitive to the emergence, neutrality and goals of intermediary actors as well as their context and level of action. Some intermediaries are specifically set up to facilitate transitions, while others grow into the role during the process of socio-technical change. Based on the study, as an important consideration for future innovation governance, we argue that systemic and niche intermediaries are the most crucial forms of intermediary actors in transitions, but they need to be complemented by a full ecology of intermediaries, including regime-based transition intermediaries, process intermediaries and user intermediaries.     

Assessing transitions through socio-technical configuration analysis – a methodological framework and a case study in the water sector

Classic accounts of transitions research have predominantly built on reconstructions of historical transition processes and in-depth case studies to identify and conceptualize socio-technical change. While such approaches have substantively improved our understanding of transitions, they often suffer from methodological nationalism and a lack of generalizability beyond spatial and sectoral boundaries. To address this gap, we propose a novel methodology – socio-technical configuration analysis (STCA) – to map and measure socio-technical alignment processes across time and space. STCA provides a configurational and dynamic perspective on how social and technical elements get aligned into “configurations that work”, allowing for the identification of differentiated transition trajectories at and across spatial and sectoral contexts. The methodology's value is illustrated with the empirical case of an ongoing shift from centralized to more modular infrastructure configurations in the global water sector. Building on this illustration, we outline potential contributions of STCA to configurational theorizing in transition studies, sketching the contours of what we believe could become a generative epistemological approach for this field.     

试论颠覆性技术保护空间的协同治理框架

颠覆性技术为后发国家技术突袭和弯道超车提供了抓手,探索其保护空间的协同治理框架对科技强国建设和创新治理发展具有重要意义。鉴于颠覆性技术保护空间现有研究中治理框架的不足,在社会-技术系统转型理论的基础上,通过结合三螺旋系统和政策干预多级效应,研究了颠覆性技术保护空间的多元治理主体及其互动、多层次治理过程及其政治进程、多情境协同模式及其治理结构,构建了颠覆性技术保护空间的协同治理框架,为政府和非政府主体协同应对新兴技术治理挑战提供了思路。