On the Correspondence between the Latent Growth Curve and Latent Change Score Models

There has been a great deal of work in the literature on the equivalence between the mixed-effects modeling and structural equation modeling (SEM) frameworks in specifying growth models (Willett &; Sayer, 1994). However, there has been little work on the correspondence between the latent growth curve model (LGM) and the latent change score model (see Grimm, Zhang, Hamagami, &; Mazzocco, 2013 Grimm, K. J., Zhang, Z., Hamagami, F., &; Mazzocco, M. M. (2013). Modeling nonlinear change via latent change and latent acceleration frameworks: Examining velocity and acceleration of growth trajectories. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 48, 117–143.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that four popular variants of the latent change score model – the no change, constant change, proportional change, and dual change models – have LGM equivalents. We provide equations that allow the translation of parameters from one approach to the other and vice versa. We then illustrate this equivalence using mathematics achievement data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Latent Curve Models and Latent Change Score Models Estimated in R

When using multiple imputation in the analysis of incomplete data, a prominent guideline suggests that more than 10 imputed data values are seldom needed. This article calls into question the optimism of this guideline and illustrates that important quantities (e.g., p values, confidence interval half-widths, and estimated fractions of missing information) suffer from substantial imprecision with a small number of imputations. Substantively, a researcher can draw categorically different conclusions about null hypothesis rejection, estimation precision, and missing information in distinct multiple imputation runs for the same data and analysis with few imputations. This article explores the factors associated with this imprecision, demonstrates that precision improves by increasing the number of imputations, and provides practical guidelines for choosing a reasonable number of imputations to reduce imprecision for each of these quantities.     

Inferring Longitudinal Relationships Between Variables: Model Selection Between the Latent Change Score and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Factor Models

This research focuses on the problem of model selection between the latent change score (LCS) model and the autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) model when the goal is to infer the longitudinal relationship between variables. We conducted a large-scale simulation study to (a) investigate the conditions under which these models return statistically (and substantively) different results concerning the presence of bivariate longitudinal relationships, and (b) ascertain the relative performance of an array of model selection procedures when such different results arise. The simulation results show that the primary sources of differences in parameter estimates across models are model parameters related to the slope factor scores in the LCS model (specifically, the correlation between the intercept factor and the slope factor scores) as well as the size of the data (specifically, the number of time points and sample size). Among several model selection procedures, correct selection rates were higher when using model fit indexes (i.e., comparative fit index, root mean square error of approximation) than when using a likelihood ratio test or any of several information criteria (i.e., Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, consistent AIC, and sample-size-adjusted BIC).     

Relating Latent Change Score and Continuous Time Models

The primary goal of this article is to demonstrate the close relationship between 2 classes of dynamic models in psychological research: latent change score models and continuous time models. The secondary goal is to point out some differences. We begin with a brief review of both approaches, before demonstrating how the 2 methods are mathematically and conceptually related. It will be shown that most commonly used latent change score models are related to continuous time models by the difference equation approximation to the differential equation. One way in which the 2 approaches differ is the treatment of time. Whereas there are theoretical and practical restrictions regarding observation time points and intervals in latent change score models, no such limitations exist in continuous time models. We illustrate our arguments with three simulated data sets using a univariate and bivariate model with equal and unequal time intervals. As a by-product of this comparison, we discuss the use of phantom and definition variables to account for varying time intervals in latent change score models. We end with a reanalysis of the Bradway–McArdle longitudinal study on intellectual abilities (used before by McArdle & Hamagami, 2004) by means of the proportional change score model and the dual change score model in discrete and continuous time.     

The Latent Variable-Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model: A General Framework for Longitudinal Data Analysis

In recent years, longitudinal data have become increasingly relevant in many applications, heightening interest in selecting the best longitudinal model to analyze them. Too often, traditional practice rather than substantive theory guides the specific model selected. This opens the possibility that alternative models might better correspond to the data. In this paper, we present a general longitudinal model that we call the Latent Variable-Autoregressive Latent Trajectory (LV-ALT) model that includes most other longitudinal models with continuous outcomes as special cases. It is capable of specializing to most models dictated by theory or prior research while having the capacity to compare them to alternative ones. If there is little guidance on the best model, the LV-ALT provides a way to determine the appropriate empirical match to the data. We present the model, discuss its identification and estimation, and illustrate how the LV-ALT reveals new things about a widely used empirical example.     

An Evaluation of Latent Growth Models for Propensity Score Matched Groups

Because random assignment is not possible in observational studies, estimates of treatment effects might be biased due to selection on observable and unobservable variables. To strengthen causal inference in longitudinal observational studies of multiple treatments, we present 4 latent growth models for propensity score matched groups, and evaluate their performance with a Monte Carlo simulation study. We found that the 4 models performed similarly with respect to model fit, bias of parameter estimates, Type I error, and power to test the treatment effect. To demonstrate a multigroup latent growth model with dummy treatment indicators, we estimated the effect of students changing schools during elementary school years on their reading and mathematics achievement, using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten Cohort.     

On Latent Change Model Choice in Longitudinal Studies

An interval estimation procedure for proportion of explained observed variance in latent curve analysis is discussed, which can be used as an aid in the process of choosing between linear and nonlinear models. The method allows obtaining confidence intervals for the R ² indexes associated with repeatedly followed measures in longitudinal studies. In addition to facilitating evaluation of local model fit, the approach is helpful for purposes of differentiating between plausible models stipulating different patterns of change over time, and in particular in empirical situations characterized by large samples and high statistical power. The procedure is also applicable in cross-sectional studies, as well as with general structural equation models. The method is illustrated using data from a nationally representative study of older adults.     

A Textbook Score Card

ABSTRACT

Utilizing latent transition analysis and multidimensional scaling growth analysis, the authors studied the emerging developmental trajectories in word literacy (i.e., word-reading competence) of a group of 1,503 kindergarteners. Specifically, 3 hypotheses with respect to growth patterns in word literacy from kindergarten to Grade 2 were examined: (a) children come into kindergarten with different word literacy levels, and emerging differences would be likely to remain stable over time; (b) the differences in word literacy latent status would lead to differences in word literacy trajectories over time; and (c) students with a low growth level would lead to lower achievement in reading achievement at a later time. The results of the dynamic analyses support the hypotheses and are discussed in the context of word literacy development.     

Recent Changes Leading to Subsequent Changes: Extensions of Multivariate Latent Difference Score Models

Latent difference score models (e.g., McArdle & Hamagami, 2001 McArdle, J. J. 2001. “A latent difference score approach to longitudinal dynamic structural analysis.”. In Structural equation modeling: Present and future Edited by: Cudeck, R., du Toit, S. and Sorbom, D. 342–380. Lincolnwood, IL: Scientific Software International..  [Google Scholar]) are extended to include effects from prior changes to subsequent changes. This extension of latent difference scores allows for testing hypotheses where recent changes, as opposed to recent levels, are a primary predictor of subsequent changes. These models are applied to bivariate longitudinal data collected as part of the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging on memory performance, measured by the California Verbal Learning Test, and lateral ventricle size, measured by structural MRIs. Results indicate that recent increases in the lateral ventricle size were a leading indicator of subsequent declines in memory performance from age 60 to 90.     

Detecting Mixtures From Structural Model Differences Using Latent Variable Mixture Modeling: A Comparison of Relative Model Fit Statistics

The accuracy of structural model parameter estimates in latent variable mixture modeling was explored with a 3 (sample size) × 3 (exogenous latent mean difference) × 3 (endogenous latent mean difference) × 3 (correlation between factors) × 3 (mixture proportions) factorial design. In addition, the efficacy of several likelihood-based statistics (Akaike's Information Criterion [AIC], Bayesian Information Ctriterion [BIC], the sample-size adjusted BIC [ssBIC], the consistent AIC [CAIC], the Vuong-Lo-Mendell-Rubin adjusted likelihood ratio test [aVLMR]), classification-based statistics (CLC [classification likelihood information criterion], ICL-BIC [integrated classification likelihood], normalized entropy criterion [NEC], entropy), and distributional statistics (multivariate skew and kurtosis test) were examined to determine which statistics best recover the correct number of components. Results indicate that the structural parameters were recovered, but the model fit statistics were not exceedingly accurate. The ssBIC statistic was the most accurate statistic, and the CLC, ICL-BIC, and aVLMR showed limited utility. However, none of these statistics were accurate for small samples (n = 500).     

Automated Latent Growth Curve Model Fitting: A Segmentation and Knot Selection Approach

Latent growth curve models are widely used in the social and behavioral sciences to study complex developmental patterns of change over time. The trajectories of these developmental patterns frequently exhibit distinct segments in the studied variables. Latent growth models with piecewise functions for repeated measurements of variables have become increasingly popular for modeling such developmental trajectories. A major problem with using piecewise models is determining the precise location of the point where the change in the process has occurred and uncovering the related number of segments. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an optimization procedure that can be used to determine both the segments and location of the knots in piecewise linear latent growth models. The procedure is illustrated using empirical data in order to detect the number of segments and change points. The results demonstrate the capabilities of the procedure for fitting latent growth curve models.     

A Note on Cluster Effects in Latent Class Analysis

This article examines the effects of clustering in latent class analysis. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted, which begins by specifying a true multilevel latent class model with varying within- and between-cluster sample sizes, varying latent class proportions, and varying intraclass correlations. These models are then estimated under the assumption of a single-level latent class model. The outcomes of interest are measures of bias in the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the entropy R ² statistic relative to accounting for the multilevel structure of the data. The results indicate that the size of the intraclass correlation as well as between- and within-cluster sizes are the most prominent factors in determining the amount of bias in these outcome measures, with increasing intraclass correlations combined with small between-cluster sizes resulting in increased bias. Bias is particularly noticeable in the BIC. In addition, there is evidence that class separation interacts with the size of the intraclass correlations and cluster sizes in producing bias in these measures.     

Proportionality Assumption in Latent Basis Curve Models: A Cautionary Note

Latent basis curve models (LBCMs) have been popular in modeling change when the change trajectories are unknown or nonlinear. The estimated change trajectories from LBCMs are often viewed as optimal and used as reference points against which other change trajectories are tested. However, there is a proportionality assumption underlying LBCMs that has received little attention from researchers. This study uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show that violation of this assumption can potentially result in substantially biased estimates of the means and variances of changes and covariate effects on these changes, leading to incorrect statistical inference. The implications of the simulation study are discussed and alternatives to LBCMs are suggested for use when the proportionality assumption is likely to be violated.     

聚集数据非线性模型中的拟得分函数

本文定义了聚集数据非线性模型中的拟得分函数 ,从投影似然、均方误差和Fisher信息等方面证明了它的最优性 .     

隐喻对语义变化的阐释

隐喻是语义变化的主要机制,是用具体熟悉的概念去建构抽象、无形的经验域的概念的手段。语义变化是隐喻在概念系统中跨范畴映射的结果,隐喻映射的来源是基本等级概念和意象图式。     

The Effects of Autocorrelation on the Curve-of-Factors Growth Model

This simulation study examined the performance of the curve-of-factors model (COFM) when autocorrelation and growth processes were present in the first-level factor structure. In addition to the standard curve-of factors growth model, 2 new models were examined: one COFM that included a first-order autoregressive autocorrelation parameter, and a second model that included first-order autoregressive and moving average autocorrelation parameters. The results indicated that the estimates of the overall trend in the data were accurate regardless of model specification across most conditions. Variance components estimates were biased across many conditions but improved as sample size and series length increased. In general, the two models that incorporated autocorrelation parameters performed well when sample size and series length were large. The COFM had the best overall performance.     

基于EXCEL平台的成绩录入及统计分析

EXCEL电子表格软件以其强大的数据处理功能,对教学、科研、管理等数据统计有着重要的作用．作者通过对EXCEL函数的研究,以及多年的工作经验,研究出了行之有效的、非常实用的成绩的录入及统计的方法,以提高工作效率．     

Propensity Score Analysis of Complex Survey Data with Structural Equation Modeling: A Tutorial with Mplus

Propensity score (PS) analysis aims to reduce bias in treatment effect estimates obtained from observational studies, which may occur due to non-random differences between treated and untreated groups with respect to covariates related to the outcome. We demonstrate how to use structural equation modeling (SEM) for PS analysis to remove selection bias due to latent covariates and estimate treatment effects on latent outcomes. Following the discussion of the design and analysis stages of PS analysis with SEM, an example is presented which uses the Mplus software to analyze data from the 1999 School and Staffing Survey (SASS) and 2000 Teacher Follow-up Survey (TFS) to estimate the effects teacher’s participation in a network of teachers on the teacher’s perception of workload manageability.     

Statistical Power of the Multiple Domain Latent Growth Model for Detecting Group Differences

The latent growth model (LGM) in structural equation modeling (SEM) may be extended to allow for the modeling of associations among multiple latent growth trajectories, resulting in a multiple domain latent growth model (MDLGM). While the MDLGM is conceived as a more powerful multivariate analysis technique, the examination of its methodological performance is very limited. Hence, the present study compared the power of the MDLGM with that of a set of univariate LGMs for detecting group differences in growth rates over time using a Monte Carlo study with a two-group and two-domain design. The results indicated that there were different scenarios where the power rates for the MDLGM were greater than that of the set of LGMs (and vice versa) due to a joint function of the two domains’ intercorrelation size and the group difference effect size.