全球价值链分工地位对于碳排放水平的影响

随着全球价值链（GVC）在全球经济与贸易中作用的提升,GVC的发展对于资源与环境的影响引起了越来越多的关注。本文以全球主要经济体为研究对象,在环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）模型基础上,将GVC分工地位指数和CDIAC碳排放数据库进行匹配组成面板数据,检验GVC分工地位对于碳排放水平的影响,并运用联立方程模型对实证结果进行内生性分析和稳健性检验。研究表明：与EKC模型相类似,GVC分工地位的上升对于碳排放的影响呈倒U型关系。机制分析发现,GVC分工地位可以通过提高绿色能源使用率来降低碳排放量。GVC分工地位也可以通过研究与发展（R&D）投入和创新创业水平影响碳排放,但同样也是一种倒U型关系。同时,R&D投入水平的增加和创新创业水平的提升可以提高GVC分工地位,有助于经济体更快地跨过转折点,转向更加低碳环保的发展模式。本文的结论丰富了全球价值链理论在环境方面的应用,为探索碳减排理论提供了新的思路。     

创新系统功能分析模型构建及应用

文章探讨了创新的本质和内涵,构建了创新系统功能分析模型,并对我国风电产业创新系统进行了功能演化分析。研究认为,创新的本质是复杂的价值创造过程,创新系统的主要功能是创造新的价值,包括科学价值、技术价值、经济价值、社会价值和文化价值;创新系统构成、创新系统功能和创新政策之间存在内在的逻辑关系,形成一个闭环。风电产业创新系统功能演化分析结果显示,我国风电产业发展具有阶段性特征,并遵循政策路线和技术成长两条路线。     

服务化与先进制造业GVC升级：基于技术创新异质性视角

在对2000—2018年中国先进制造业服务化对先进制造业全球价值链升级的影响进行实证分析的基础上，引入自主创新和模仿创新两类不同的技术创新，以检验其在上述影响中存在效应的差异。研究发现，先进制造业服务化对全球价值链升级具有显著促进作用；先进制造业服务化与模仿创新之间呈先促进、后抑制的倒“U”型关系；先进制造业服务化与自主创新之间呈先抑制、后促进的“U”型关系；知识资本投入在先进制造业服务化与模仿创新和自主创新中均存在调节效应，对自主创新产生促进效果，但对模仿创新产生负向影响。为进一步推动服务化进程，政府应鼓励推动先进制造业及服务业中的互动融合，并健全市场配置和运行机制，增强先进制造业技术、产品和市场自主创新能力。     

Landmarks as lighthouses: firms' innovation and modes of exit during the business cycle

We revisit the relationship between innovation and survival, tracking how innovation types (product, process, organizational, and marketing innovation) relate to exit routes (closure, failure, M&A) during different phases of the business cycle (i.e. normal times, the 2007–08 financial crisis and subsequent recovery). In particular, we implemented a new (to the economic field) econometric approach, landmark analysis, to include time-varying covariates in survival models with competing exit routes on our representative sample of Dutch firms (obtained merging monthly register data with biennial innovation surveys, for 2006–2015). Our most straightforward result is that each type of innovation, across the different phases of the business cycle, affects, in a substantially different way, the likelihood to exit the market through different modes of exit. Innovations seems to grant some innovation premium, but no common pattern appears between the evolution of the relationships between different types of innovation and exit routes across the business cycle.     

Information management for innovation networks—an empirical study on the “who,what and how” in networked innovation

Innovation networks are vital in advancing new product and service development. Particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, partnering within innovation networks allows to enlarge innovation capabilities and to reach new markets. In order to create effective innovation networks, however, firms are required to adapt to the network. To do so, they must overcome three principal challenges: they need to build partnerships, integrate the partners’ value contributions, and coordinate innovation processes. We followed three innovation networks over a three-year period and examined how they successfully used information systems (IS) to respond to these challenges. On the basis of their experiences we identify IS categories and measures that support setting up an information management for networked innovation. We explicate relevant tasks for managing the aspects of “who, what and how” in networked innovation.     

各国参与全球价值链的环境库兹涅茨效应——基于跨国面板数据

随着经济全球化概念越来越深刻地体现在国际分工专业化和经济增长模式中,全球价值链（GVC）的深化将如何影响环境这一问题引发了越来越多的思考。本文立足于GVC的视角,利用1995—2018年64个国家的面板数据,依托环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）理论体系,探究了参与GVC对于环境污染和经济增长关联性的影响,分析各国参与GVC是否会影响EKC的“拐点”。研究结论表明：①GVC参与度的提高将显著延后EKC“拐点”的到来,这一“延后”主要源于后向GVC分工的驱动,而前向GVC分工的提升将有助于EKC“拐点”的提前。②参与GVC对EKC“拐点”的影响存在国家异质性,环境规制严格的国家参与GVC将助其更早迎来“拐点”,实现经济发展意义上的碳达峰;而规制宽松的国家参与GVC则可能沦为“污染天堂”。③GVC参与度对EKC“拐点”的影响存在行业异质性,其中技术密集型行业前向GVC参与度的提升将有效推动EKC“拐点”提前到来。④GVC参与度与CO₂之间存在倒U型的非线性关系。本文的发现丰富了全球价值链在经济和环境效应方面的实证应用,为协调经济高质量发展与生态环境约束提供了新思路。     

Climbing the Ladder: Inward Sourcing as an Upgrading Capability in Global Value Chains

How can emerging-economy firms technically upgrade in global value chains (GVCs) and avoid being locked into low value-added activities? Inspired by catch-up cycles theory and “in-out-in” policy of GVC participation (Lee et al., 2017), we propose a novel concept of inward-sourcing capability – the ability to implement a dynamic transition from foreign sourcing to local sourcing in GVCs. We argue that inward-sourcing capability is critical for technical upgrade of emerging-economy firms. Using a full sample of Chinese manufacturing firms (714,117 firm-year observations) from 2000 to 2015, we investigate four antecedents of inward-sourcing capability and find that market-based institutions, openness to foreign multinational enterprises, and R&D intensity strengthen such capability-building, while state ownership impedes it. We also find inward-sourcing capability widens Chinese firms’ search breadth and strengthens innovation capability and technical impact. Our new concept and findings carry important policy implications for the second stage of “in-out-in” GVC participation.     

GVC嵌入、产业R&D效率与提升策略研究

在创新成为驱动发展第一动力和创新资源约束的交叉背景下，提升产业R&D效率对实现产业创新发展具有重要意义。突破产业R&D效率研究单一阶段或两阶段视角的局限，将GVC要素引入产业R&D效率评价体系之中，在从嵌入位势和嵌入强度两个维度对GVC要素进行解构的基础上，构建产业R&D三阶段效率评价体系；在此基础上，基于三阶段视角和SFA方法以中国高端装备制造业R&D效率为例进行实证研究，揭示产业R&D三阶段效率规律及其影响因素的作用。研究发现：（1）实证产业的GVC嵌入位势逐年提高，但其GVC嵌入强度相对稳定；（2）实证产业R&D三阶段效率在实证时段内稳定上升，呈现出R&D成果直接产出效率最高，GVC攀升效率最低，成果经济转化效率居中的总体规律；（3）R&D投入要素和影响因素对产业R&D三阶段效率的影响强度、影响显著性和影响方向均具有异质性。基于实证研究结论，提出了“加强GVC嵌入”和“促进产业民营成分发展”等提升产业R&D效率的策略。     

全球价值链嵌入与我国制造业技术含量提升

本文利用世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）的数据,分别测算了中国制造业总体及16个细分行业的全球价值链嵌入程度以及国内技术含量,并实证分析了全球价值链嵌入对国内技术含量的影响。研究发现,全球价值链嵌入能够有效促进国内技术含量提升,并且全球价值链嵌入与国内技术含量存在非线性的倒U型关系。全球价值链嵌入通过中间产品效应、行业竞争效应以及大市场效应促进国内技术含量的提升。国内自主研发和国外技术引进都可以促进国内技术含量的提升,但国内自主研发对国内技术含量的作用要大于国外技术引进。从行业异质性来看,全球价值链嵌入对劳动密集型行业的促进作用要大于资本技术密集型行业以及高技术行业。     

Deep transitions: Emergence,acceleration, stabilization and directionality

Industrial society has not only led to high levels of wealth and welfare in the Western world, but also to increasing global ecological degradation and social inequality. The socio-technical systems that underlay contemporary societies have substantially contributed to these outcomes. This paper proposes that these socio-technical systems are an expression of a limited number of meta-rules that, for the past 250 years, have driven innovation and hence system evolution in a particular direction, thereby constituting the First Deep Transition. Meeting the cumulative social and ecological consequences of the overall direction of the First Deep Transition would require a radical change, not only in socio-technical systems but also in the meta-rules driving their evolution – the Second Deep Transition. This paper develops a new theoretical framework that aims to explain the emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality of Deep Transitions. It does so through the synthesis of two literatures that have attempted to explain large-scale and long-term socio-technical change: the Multi-level Perspective (MLP) on socio-technical transitions, and Techno-economic Paradigm (TEP) framework.     

Global value chains and domestic innovation

This paper explores how changes in both position and participation in Global Value Chain (GVC) networks affect firm innovation. The analysis combines matched patent-firm data for Japan with measures of GVC network centrality and GVC participation using the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables over the period from 1995 to 2011. We find that Japan's position in GVCs has shifted from being at the core of Asian value chains towards the periphery relative to other countries in the network, i.e., becoming less “central”. We use China's accession to the World Trade Organization as an instrumental variable for changes in Japanese centrality. Our analysis shows that increases in Japanese sectors' forward centrality – i.e. as a key supplier - tend to be positively associated with increasing firms' patent applications in these sectors and that firms in key hubs within GVCs, specifically as key suppliers, appear to benefit from knowledge spillovers from downstream markets.     

基于SD的技术标准化与技术创新交互模型构建

在分析技术标准化和技术创新运行机理的基础上,明晰两大系统之间的交互作用,运用系统动力学方法构建随过程发展演变的技术标准化与技术创新交互模型,以更好地挖掘两大系统之间的交互关系,为完善技术标准化体系和提升技术创新能力提供理论依据,为有效联结两大系统、构建协调的技术基础结构、共同促进经济增长提供一个新思路。     

组织学习与国际新创企业GVC嵌入路径——基于中国芯片行业的跨案例分析

    本文以中国芯片行业的三家国际新创企业为例,采用跨案例分析法,基于组织学习视角,对国际新创企业的组织学习要素和模式进行了剖析,并探讨了其全球价值链（Global Value Chain,GVC）嵌入路径。研究发现：国际新创企业的组织学习模式可分为信息探索式学习、技术探索式学习及开发式学习;国际新创企业的GVC嵌入路径包括价值链横向嵌入、价值链高端嵌入及价值链深度嵌入;国际新创企业应根据各自的组织学习要素选择相应的学习模式和嵌入路径。     

How do global manufacturing shifts affect long-term clean energy innovation? A study of wind energy suppliers

Clean energy technologies are important for meeting long-term climate and competitiveness goals. But clean energy industries are part of global value chains (GVCs), where past manufacturing shifts from developed to emerging economies have raised questions on a decline in long-term innovation. Our research centers on how geographic shifts in the GVC shape long-term innovation, i.e., innovation in a time frame within which “mission-oriented”, societal, or firm strategic objectives need to be met rather than tactical, near-term market competitiveness alone. Focusing on wind energy, we introduce a temporal measure to distinguish between long-term and short-term innovation, applying natural language processing methods on patent text data. We consider supply-side value chain factors (i.e., manufacturing supplier relationships with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)) and demand-side factors (i.e., policy-induced clean energy market growth), shaping the patenting activities of 358 global specialized wind suppliers (2006–2016). Our findings suggest that the wind industry did not suppress long-term innovation during manufacturing shifts, in this case to China. After 2012 when China developed a large wind market, long-term innovation increased by 80.7% in European suppliers working with non-European OEMs (including Chinese) and by 67.2% in Chinese suppliers working with non-Chinese OEMs. Our results highlight the importance of coupling international manufacturing relationships with sizeable local demand for inducing long-term innovation. Our results advance research in innovation, GVCs, and green industrial policy with implications for several industries that can contribute to climate mitigation.     

数字经济是否促进中国制造业全球价值链升级?北大核心CSCDCSSCI

数字经济已成为中国制造业行稳致远发展的新动能。将数字经济纳入全球价值链(GVC)分析框架,从广度和高度双重维度刻画GVC升级特征,阐述数字经济影响GVC升级的理论机理,构建计量模型实证检验数字经济对中国制造业GVC升级的总体影响、行业异质性影响及技术与资本门槛效应。研究发现:(1)数字经济从根本上改变了GVC各环节的空间布局与价值分配,通过发挥网络连接效应、成本节约效应、价值创造效应影响一国及其特定部门的GVC广度与高度;(2)在样本考察期内,数字经济总体上对中国制造业GVC广度和高度均有促进作用;分样本来看,劳动密集型行业表现出和总样本相同的影响特征,但资本和技术密集型行业数字经济的GVC升级效果不明显。进一步检验发现,数字经济对资本和技术密集型行业GVC升级存在先抑制后促进的"U"型单门槛效应。因此,掌控数字经济关键技术、强化数字基础设施建设、引导企业数字化改造仍是当下之急需。本研究有助于深刻认识数字经济的经济效应,并为制定制造业GVC升级对策提供参考依据。     

全球价值链嵌入对集群企业创新绩效的影响

以学习效应为中介变量,构建全球价值链嵌入与集群企业创新绩效的关系模型,并以绍兴纺织业集群中134个外向型企业为对象,运用结构方程模型进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)全球价值链嵌入的三个维度具有内在逻辑联系,结构嵌入促进关系嵌入,并通过关系嵌入推动认知嵌入的提高。(2)全球价值链嵌入的三个维度均不直接影响集群企业的创新绩效,但结构嵌入和关系嵌入通过利用式学习间接改善创新绩效。研究认为集群企业应从战略层次关注全球价值链嵌入三个维度的内在关系,并通过学习能力的培育更好的利用外部创新资源。     

创新系统的多层次架构研究

对创新系统的研究大致有企业创新系统、国家创新系统、区域创新系统、产业创新系统四类理论,新近的研究提出了集群创新系统、全球创新系统等概念,从新的范围视角探询创新系统的建构与作用机理。本文在简要回顾创新系统的概念和研究演进路线基础上,提出了多层次创新系统架构模式,探讨了各个层次创新系统之间的互动关系,并展望了未来创新系统的研究。     

我国海水珍珠产业生态价值链与GVC延伸情况分析

对海水珍珠产业生态价值创造机理进行研究,并对海水珍珠全球价值链(GVC)延伸情况进行分析,以探寻海水珍珠产业持续发展的途径和嵌入GVC的方法。     

面向2030中国区域科技创新空间演化趋势探讨

本文通过选取《中国区域科技创新评价报告》的综合科技创新水平指数及39项三级指标作为研究对象，采取“自下而上”的方式，对39项指标采用增速法进行滚动预测，并测算出31个省（市、区）2030年综合科技创新水平指数。结合中国区域发展战略演化、区域创新格局及区域科技力量空间布局等，对未来十年中国区域科技创新能力趋势演变进行研究。结果表明：至2030年，中国科技创新区域进一步集聚，北京、上海、粤港澳大湾区将成为具有全球影响力的科技创新高地；“一纵一横”两大创新带的廊道效应逐渐突显，成为区域创新集聚区；中国科技创新重心不断向南转移，区域间科技创新发展依旧不平衡，而城市群协同创新将成为区域科技创新的重要方式，科技创新发展逐步进入“超越行政区划”的新时代。