The impact of R&D on productivity increase in Japanese manufacturing companies

This paper estimates the impact of R&D expenditures (as a ratio to value added) on the rate of total factor productivity increase using the data of 135 to 168 Japanese manufacturing companies in each of two periods - Period I (1966–73) and Period II (1974–82). The rate of return on R&D stock is estimated at 20 percent in Period I and 17 percent in Period II, but is found to decrease when industrial intercept dummies or the rate of deflated sales growth is added as an explanatory variable, which is interpreted as suggesting the inter-industry differences in the rate of exogenous technical progress and the existence of a learning effect. Interindustry differences in the rate of return on R&D are also investigated.     

日本科学技术政策的特征

本文通过比较日本与美国的科学技术政策 ,试图阐明日本科学技术政策的特征 ,并进一步探讨了其中的问题及最近的动向。     

无锡城市用地扩展的时空特征与趋势分析

通过计算土地扩展集中指数和扩展强度，分析了无锡市土地扩展的数量特征，从横向和纵向比较、地类扩展、时段分析等方面刻划了城市土地扩展速度。认为无锡市土地扩展总体上属于快速增长类型，90年代建成区用地增长了50%。90年代中期以来，城市土地扩展强度以原锡山市最为突出，扩展区域集中于无锡市区；从时间序列分析，历年扩展强度相对均衡。从横向比较来看属于缓慢增长类型；从纵向比较看，80年代以来土地扩展弹性系数达3.3以上，属较快增长类型；从扩展地类来看，90年代以来工业用地和公共设施用地的增幅最大，其中工业用地疏于引导型用地类型；从异速增长类型分析，无锡市属于正异速增长型。在此基础上，采用时空相关性方法进一步揭示了城市、开发区、土地扩展参数的时空变化规律性。最后，文章对无锡市用地扩展趋势和方向进行了分析和总结，并提出了分区指导意见，指出无锡市拓展的方向以南部为最佳。     

南四湖湿地土地利用格局演变与生态效应

以南四湖湿地为研究区,选取1980-2012年间的5期遥感、土地利用等数据,在RS、GIS技术支持下,运用土地利用动态度模型和马尔科夫模型(Markov)分析研究区1980-2012年土地利用格局变化情况,采用生态系统服务价值评价方法,分析土地利用格局变化引起的生态效应。结果表明:①1980-2012年南四湖土地利用动态度分析得出:1980-2012年南四湖地区总体的土地利用变化速度较为缓慢,其中1990-2000年南四湖综合土地利用动态度最大,变化速率最快为1.84%;南四湖地区各土地利用类型动态度变化最快的是滩涂沼泽和未利用地;②1980-2012年南四湖土地利用格局结构变化特点是:其他农用地增加幅度为223.65%,主要是由于水产养殖业蓬勃发展,农业产业结构发生变化;建设用地面积增加较大,主要受城市化的影响;其他用地面积减少,转化为耕地和其他农用地;③1980-2012年南四湖湿地地区生态服务价值不断减少,负向贡献率大于正向贡献率,滩涂沼泽和水域面积减少是引起南四湖湿地地区生态价值减少最关键的因素。     

农地保障功能测度及其区域差异——基于浙、赣、桂三省506份农户调查

本研究从收入比较和支出比较的角度, 构建了两个指标综合测度农地保障功能的大小, 即来自农地的年纯收入与农户年总净收入之比和来自农地的年纯收入与农民的基本生活支出之比。对应性分析表明, 这两个指标具有显著的相关关系。实证分析结果显示, 浙、赣、桂三省506份农户调查问卷中, 农地保障功能相对作用较大和很大的只占16.6%, 83.4%的农户农地保障功能相对作用不大;农地基本生活保障缺额占82.6%, 足额只占17.4%。非参数检验表明, 农地保障功能存在显著区域差异。相关政策建议:现阶段应大力促进农户农业收入增加, 以提高土地保障功能;要充分认识农地保障功能存在区域差异这一现实背景, 因地制宜进行农地产权制度创新。     

研究型大学研发与首都区域专利产出的动态计量经济分析

运用动态计量经济学的分布滞后、单位根检验、协整分析和G ranger因果检验模型,对研究型大学研发投入与首都区域专利产出进行了动态计量经济实证分析,结果显示:首都地区研发投入在影响专利产出过程中存在2期的滞后效应;研究型大学研发经费投入每增加1%,首都区域研发产出当年将增长0.3%,大学研发投入在3年内共使得专利产出增长了0.6%;大学研发投入与专利产出之间存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是其对专利产出没有表现出预期的促进作用;专利产出是大学研发投入G ranger意义上的原因,但研发投入没能有效地促进首都区域专利产出,二者之间还没有形成一种协调联动的发展机制。     

The adoption and social impacts of information technology in U.S. agriculture

Abstract

By 1986 (a decade after their invention) microprocessors had diffused to about 18 percent of all U.S. households and 6 percent of U.S. farmers. In addition to general consumer uses, farm households in the United States utilize microcomputers for such small business applications as record keeping, word‐processing, payroll handling, etc. A special application of microprocessor technology occurred in 1980–1981 when 200 Kentucky farmers participated in a trial of the Green Thumb Box, a video‐text system providing market, weather, and technological information. The nature of the information needs of U.S. farm people seems to fit well with the new information technologies built around the microprocessor, although little of this potential has yet been realized. Since that experiment, videotex has shown itself to have doubtful value as a channel for the distribution of agricultural information, leaving open the question of what might be the best technological vehicle for this audience. Research is needed on two issues: (1) the adoption and use of the new communication technologies, and (2) their social impacts on rural society.     

变与不变、同与不同:中美研发经费投入再比较

基于20世纪80、90年代中美两国研发经费的比较,本文对90年代至今中美两国研发经费投入进行再比较。研究发现,尽管我国研发经费投入规模已有较大变化,但在投入结构与投入主体方面却并未改变:美国依然强化对基础研究的投入,我国似乎并非如此;美国主要是联邦政府在支持研发,我国地方政府的研发投入不仅与中央政府相当,而且上升趋势明显;美国研发投入基于市场失灵理论,而我国则似乎更多的是基于“重视”。在公共财政投入绩效日益为各界关注的情况下,建议积极落实十八届三中全会关于市场和政府作用的理论创新,进一步优化我国研发投入理论;在稳定研发经费投入规模、完善科研统计的条件下,尽快优化调整研发投入结构、进一步强化基础研究投入,特别是进一步探索地方政府研发投入的适宜规模,考虑逐步减少地方政府的直接投入。     

影响农民收入的因素分析——基于遵义12个县（市）的数据

实现农民的持续增收,是解决“三农”问题和建设新农村的关键。本文用遵义市12个县（市）面板数据,实证研究了县域GDP的增长、乡镇企业的发展、财政支出、制度变革等因素对农民收入的影响。研究表明：财政支出中,支农支出对农民收入有明显的促进作用,而财政教育和管理支出．对农民收入的作用在统计上不显著;县级财政自给率对农民收入有较大的正效应;取消农业税和新农村建设中的一系列制度变革显著地增加了农民收入。     

Making time for science

This work analyzes the evolution of time allocation for agricultural and life science faculty in Tier 1 US research universities from 1975 to 2005. Specifically, it explores the trends with respect to time spent on research versus administrative activities, and shows about a 20% decline in the former and doubling of time spent on the latter. Most of the research time decline is accounted for by increased pre and post-grant administrative efforts and other non-research administrative activities rather than changes in teaching activity. Despite the substantial decrease in time available for research, other key research inputs and overall journal article output per faculty have remained relatively stable over that same time period. These findings raise important concerns regarding whether faculty time is being used sub-optimally relative to other ways in which administrative activities might be completed and scholarly activity might be advanced.     

我国农业科研投入对农业增长的贡献研究——基于1995-2007年省级面板数据的实证分析

本文利用1995 - 2007年全国各省数据计算狭义的农业科研对农业增长的贡献水平,以估算农业科技存量为基础,利用静态面板估计了不同函数形式下科研变量对农业生产的弹性,计算了农业的边际回报率和内部收益率两个重要的指标.通过比较相关研究结论,本文发现从国家层面看,农业科研投入在过去取得了很高的回报率并在促进农业科技进步、...     

Routinization,within-occupation task changes and long-run employment dynamics

The present study adds to the literature on routinization and employment by capturing within-occupation task changes over the period 1980–2010. The main contributions are the measurement of such changes and the combination of two data sources on occupational task content for the United States: the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) and the Occupational Information Network (O*NET). We show that within-occupation reorientation away from routine tasks: i) accounts for 1/3 of the decline in routine-task use; ii) accelerated in the 1990s, decelerated in the 2000s but with significant convergence across occupations; and iii) allowed workers to escape the employment and wage decline, conditional on the initial level of routine-task intensity. The latter finding suggests that task reorientation is a key channel through which labour markets adapt to various forms of labour-saving technological change.     

Measuring the contribution of biomedical research to the production of health

Technologically induced increases in health care costs have compelled policy-makers to ask hard budgetary questions about the value of biomedical research. Specific examples can be given to illustrate the returns from biomedical research on a disease-by-disease basis, but this information does not give a comprehensive enough perspective. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the historical contribution that biomedical research has made to the prolongation of life. Using a production function approach and various statistical models of the lag process, we estimate 23–48% of the decline in mortality over the 1930–1978 period can be attributed to biomedical research efforts. The lower bound estimate translates into a net return of $83 billion for our society, illustrating the past wisdom of investment in biomedical research. In recent years, however, the year-to-year decline in mortality rates has slowed, suggesting that mortality may not be an adequate output measure to justify expansion in research expenditures. Without alternative output measures, policy-makers and planners will have a difficult time in evaluating research benefits and making decisions on the allocation of future resources.     

Prioritizing international agricultural research investments: lessons from a global multi-crop assessment

Investments in international agricultural research have proven very successful at an aggregated level over the past decades. Decision makers, however, face the tough question of how best to allocate limited public funds across increasingly diverse research areas to achieve the largest impacts. Simultaneously, donors demand more accountability from research institutions with regards to use of funds and resulting impacts on food and nutrition security, the environment, gender equality and poverty reduction. From 2012-2014, the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB) undertook a systematic, quantitative ex-ante priority assessment across five key crops to inform its strategic research portfolio decisions. In-depth studies were conducted for cassava, banana, potato, sweetpotato, and yams with a harmonized methodological framework. The assessments comprised: 1) elicitation of major production constraints and research opportunities through global expert surveys; 2) identification of priority research interventions; 3) ex ante estimation of costs and benefits for two adoption scenarios using partial equilibrium economic surplus models; and 4) poverty impact simulations. Results suggest substantial, although variable benefits for all assessed potential research investments and provide a range of impact indicators (adoption area, number of beneficiaries, net present value, internal rate of return, and poverty reduction). The findings have since informed the research portfolio development of RTB and were critical for continued program funding in the second phase. This paper presents the methodology and results and then focuses on the policy implications and lessons learned to strengthen future priority assessments in agricultural research.     

江西省农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响

伴随中国城镇化的快速发展,大量农业人口向城市转移,城市建设用地面积不断增加。探讨农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响,对推进新型城镇化和实现农民市民化具有十分重要的意义。本文基于2006—2015年江西省11个地级市相关统计数据,采用固定效应与随机效应模型,研究了农业人口转移对城市总建设用地增加及不同类型城市建设用地增加的影响。研究结果表明：农业人口转移在1%的显著性水平下正向影响城市总建设用地增加;农业人口转移对城市工商用地、居住用地和交通绿地广场用地增加的影响分别通过了10%、1%和5%水平下的显著性检验,且其受影响的弹性系数依次为0.167、0.155和0.135;但伴随农业人口的转移,城市公共设施用地并没有显著增加;农业人口转移对不同类型城市建设用地增量的影响存在区域差异。因此,政府应根据农业人口转移的进程适度增加城市公共设施用地,合理布局不同的城市建设用地类型,有效推进新型城镇化建设,实现农业转移人口市民化。     

财政支农支出、农业FDI对农业科技进步的影响研究*

在剖析财政支农支出和农业FDI影响农业科技进步的理论基础上,以我国13个省级单位2000-2013年数据为例,同时运用OLS回归方法和分位数回归方法,实证财政支农支出和农业FDI对农业科技进步的影响。结果发现：财政支农支出和农业FDI是影响农业科技进步的关键因素,农业科研活动科研人员投入量、农村金融发展水平(结构、规模和效率)、农村固定资产投资投入量和农业人力资本水平也都会影响农业科技进步。同时,还发现：在不同的分位点下,财政支农支出和农业FDI对农业科技进步的影响是存在差异的,财政支农支出和农业FDI的变化对农业科技进步快的省级单位的影响要高于农业科技进步低的省份;农业科研活动科研人员投入量、农村固定资产投资投入量对农业科技进步的影响不受分位点变化的影响,而农村金融发展水平(结构、规模和效率)、农业人力资本水平对农业科技进步的影响则受分位点变化的影响。     

中国经济增长与科技投入关系的实证研究

文章以国家统计局发布的1953—2002年度统计数据为基础,实证分析了中国经济增长与科技投入之间的关系。结果表明：(1)中国经济增长与科技投入之间存在着十分明显的因果关系,科技投入是引起经济增长的重要原因;(2)在1953—2002年期间,科技投入对我国经济增长贡献率约为17．6％,表明科技投入在一定程度上促进了我国经济增长,但其促进作用并不是十分明显;(3)要加强科技投入在经济增长中的促进作用,不仅要关注增加科技投入的总量,更要重视优化科技投入的结构和提高科技资源的使用效率。     

我国粮食主产区粮食农业绿色全要素生产率测度及影响因素研究

本文选取2000—2017年粮食主产区的农业投入、产出面板数据,基于松弛变量的方向距离函数(SBM-DDF)的Luenberger指数对其农业绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）进行测度,并对其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明: ( 1) 全国粮食主产区总体农业GTF年均值为1.029,除个别年份外,其在碳排放约束下的农业GTFP均值均大于1,说明在大多数年份中我国粮食主产区的农业绿色全要素生产效率都存在一定程度的改善。(2)各粮食主产区农业GTFP水平差异明显,其中河北、江苏、山东、辽宁的农业TFP、技术进步指数和技术效率水平均大于全国粮食主产区水平。 (3)从粮食主产区农业GTFP的分解项上来看,碳排放约束下的农业GTFP增长主要依靠绿色技术进步的推动,绿色技术进步指数对于农业GTFP的作用一直领先于绿色技术效率,而绿色技术效率在其增速落后于绿色技术进步的情况下,出现了持续恶化现象。(4)机械化水平、财政支出水平对粮食主产区农业绿色全要素生产率表现为显著正向影响;粮食作物受灾水平、灌溉设备水平、农资化肥负荷指数、劳均经营规模、第二三产业发展水平对粮食主产区农业绿色全要素生产效率有显著负向影响。     

Taylor's Q1 “Visceral” level of information need: What is it?

Taylor (1968) dramatically stated that information seekers/searchers do not use their real Q1-level of information need when formulating their query to the system. Instead, they use a compromised Q4-level form of their need. The article directly confronts what Taylor's (1968) Q1-level information need is–the “actual” or “real” information need of the searcher. The article conceptually and operationally defines what Taylor's Q1-level of information need is using Belkin's (1980) ASK concept as a basis for designing a system intervention that shifts the searcher from representing the Q4-level compromised form of the need in her query to representing instead her Q1-level real information need. The article describes the Q1 Actualizing Intervention Model, which can be built into a system capable of actualizing the uncertainty distribution of the searcher's belief ASK so that information search is directed by the searcher's real Q1-level information need. The objective of the Q1 Actualizing Intervention Model is to enable in our Knowledge Age the introduction of intervention IR systems that are organic and human-centric, designed to initiate organic knowledge production processes in the searcher.     

Agent仿真技术在科技政策决策支持中的应用

目前采用基于Agent的建模与仿真(Agent-based Modeling and Simulation,ABMS)方法建立的人工社会模型大多是概念模型或者演示模型,还不能针对现实中的具体对象进行解释和分析。首先讨论采用ABMS方法建立人工社会模型的思路,然后采用ABMS方法针对具体的广州软件产业集群进行建模,并给出企业技术创新行为的仿真描述,最终建立的计算机仿真模型可以应用于分析政府税率、创新回报率、研发周期、社会网络和研发投入比例等因素对整个软件产业集群技术创新的影响,提供科技政策制定决策支持。