Reliability analysis of DOOF for weibull distribution

Hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the failure probabilityp _i under DOOF by taking the quasi-Beta distributionB(p _i−1, 1, 1,b) as the prior distribution is proposed in this paper. The weighted Least Squares Estimate method was used to obtain the formula for computing reliability distribution parameters and estimating the reliability characteristic values under DOOF. Taking one type of aerospace electrical connector as an example, the correctness of the above method through statistical analysis of electrical connector accelerated life test data was verified. Project (No. 59975081) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China     

截尾Gamma分布无失效数据的贝叶斯可靠性分析

对无失效数据（ti,ni）,在时刻ti的失效概率pi=P{T     

截尾Gamma分布无失效数据的贝叶斯可靠性分析

对无失效数据(ti,ni),在时刻ti的失效概率pi=P{T刍ti}的先验分布为截尾Gamma分布时,给出了pi的Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计,从而得到无失效数据情形可靠度的估计.     

极值分布在无失效数据下的贝叶斯可靠性分析

本文给出了在ti时刻的失效概率pi=p{T〈ti}的Bayes可靠性分析,从而得到极值分布无失效数据下的可靠性估计。     

Reliability testing and reliability analysis of the over-load protective relay

The over-load protective relay is widely used for motor protection. The reliability of the over-load protective relay directly affects the safe running of a motor. The reliability testing and reliability analysis of the over-load protective relay is an important way to improve the reliability of products. In this paper, the reliability test method of the over-load protective relay is studied, and the reliability tests of the typical products are carried out on a reliability tester developed by authors. In terms of the testing results, the reliability analysis is finished. The failure reasons are found and the measures are put forward to improve the reliability of the products.     

基于时间序列的退化型产品可靠性评估方法

在不假定退化轨道的基础上,提出利用时间序列的方法,使用ARIMA模型对退化数据进行建模,拟合其退化规律,预测失效寿命,进而进行可靠性评估.并给出实例,说明该方法具有较好的适用性和有效性.     

Regularized canonical correlation analysis with unlabeled data

In standard canonical correlation analysis （CCA）, the data from definite datasets are used to estimate their canonical correlation. In real applications, for example in bilingual text retrieval, it may have a great portion of data that we do not know which set it belongs to. This part of data is called unlabeled data, while the rest from definite datasets is called labeled data. We propose a novel method called regularized canonical correlation analysis （RCCA）, which makes use of both labeled and unlabeled samples. Specifically, we learn to approximate canonical correlation as if all data were labeled. Then, we describe a generalization of RCCA for the multi-set situation. Experiments on four real world datasets, Yeast, Cloud, Iris, and Haberman, demonstrate that, by incorporating the unlabeled data points, the accuracy of correlation coefficients can be improved by over 30%.     

标准型圆锥破碎机动锥圆锥头可靠性分析

通过对圆锥头的失效表现、原因分析,寻求出间接提高圆锥头可靠性能的办法,以解决实际问题.     

高级汉语口语测验两种评分标准的信度比较

高级汉语口语测验将高水平学习者的口语能力,操作性地定义为在听—说模式和独白模式下的议论性语篇表达的能力。本研究针对评分员使用两种评分标准对67名外国考生完成听后说题型的评分进行了检验。概化理论的分析结果显示,两种评分标准的测验信度都达到了优良标准;评分标准一使用两名评分员即可使测验信度达到优良(概化系数为0.826),评分标准二则需要使用三名评分员才能使测验信度达到优良。     

Use of hierarchical linear modeling and curriculum-based measurement for assessing academic growth and instructional factors for students with learning difficulties

The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to apply the Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) technique to multi-wave Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) measures in modeling academic growth and assessing its relations to student- and instruction-related variables. HLM has advantages over other statistical methods (e.g., repeated measures ANOVA, Structural Equation Modeling) in modeling academic growth. The advantages include allowing more flexible research designs in collecting multiple data points and estimating growth rates and their relations to correlates in more reliable, accurate ways. CBM, as a multi-wave progressmonitoring system, also has distinctive psychometric features that facilitate longitudinal research on academic skill development. These features include provision of multiple data points within short time periods, good validity and reliability, and sensitivity for detecting small degrees of change. Finally, research questions related to assessing the academic growth of students with learning difficulties and using assessment results to improve educational practices for them are discussed     

工业厂房承重结构体系可靠性定量分析

以某单层工业厂房承重结构体系为例，运用《工业厂房可靠性鉴定标准》对其进行可靠性鉴定评级，并在此基础上，运用系统失效分析法（故障树分析）进行可靠性定量分析，从而使单层工业厂房可靠性鉴定向定量化分析过渡。     

公路桥梁钢筋混凝土构件的可靠度分析

本文参考有关统计资料,对我国新颁公路桥规JTJ023-85中钢筋混凝土构件承载能力的可靠指标进行了计算分析,并讨论了影响构件可靠度指标的几个主要因素。采用的方法是一种近似概率计算方法——一次二阶矩法,即只考虑随机变量的平均值和标准差两统计参数,对设计表达式进行线性化处理。结果表明,延性破坏构件在荷载组合G+Q_1下β平均值为3.6,在G+Q_2下β平均值为2.8;脆性破坏构件,则分别为4.1和3.3。这是新规范所反映的钢筋混凝土构件可靠度的基本水平。另外在某些荷载效应比值下提高了荷载安全系数和对脆性破坏构件考虑了工作条件系数,都较为合理。但构件在不同荷载情况下尚不能得到比较一致的可靠度。抗力和荷载效应的分项系数以及荷载的标准值还需进一步研讨。     

混合效应随机微分方程的贝叶斯分析(英文)

采用带有随机微分方程的非线性混合效应模型对群体药物代谢动力学数据建模,通过在状态方程中引入随机项,将常微分方程扩展到随机微分方程.和常微分方程相比,随机微分方程可解决群体药物代谢动力学模型中相关残差问题.利用贝叶斯估计对非线性混合效应随机微分方程模型参数进行估计,给出群体参数及个体参数的精确后验分布,将Gibbs和Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合,给出参数估计值.通过计算机模拟和实例分析验证了方法的可靠性,结果表明利用非线性混合效应随机微分方程模型及贝叶斯估计方法分析群体药物代谢动力学数据是可行的.     

Reliability based multiobjective optimization for design of structures subject to random vibrations

Based on a multiobjective approach whose objective function （OF） vector collects stochastic reliability performance and structural cost indices, a structural optimization criterion for mechanical systems subject to random vibrations is presented for supporting engineer＇s design. This criterion differs from the most commonly used conventional optimum design criterion for random vibrating structure, which is based on minimizing displacement or acceleration variance of main structure responses, without considering explicitly required performances against failure. The proposed criterion can properly take into account the design-reliability required performances, and it becomes a more efficient support for structural engineering decision making. The multiobjective optimum （MOO） design of a tuned mass damper （TMD） has been developed in a typical seismic design problem, to control structural vibration induced on a multi-storey building structure excited by nonstationary base acceleration random process A numerical example for a three-storey building is developed and a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The results are shown in a useful manner for TMD design decision support.     

Application of data envelopment analysis on the indicators contributing to learning and teaching performance

This paper applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) to explore the quantitative relative efficiency of 18 classes of freshmen students studying a course of English conversation in a university of Taiwan from the academic year 2004-2006. A diagram of teaching performance improvement mechanism is designed to identify key performance indicators for evaluation in order to help teachers concentrate their efforts on the formulated teaching suggestions. The sensitivity study highlights the priority of the richness of course contents over the other evaluated indicators. The performance improvement mechanism can help decision-makers to design educational policies.     

Bayesian networks modeling for thermal error of numerical control machine tools

The interaction between the heat source location, its intensity, thermal expansion coefficient, the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool, and also makes thermal error prediction difficult. To address this issue, a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks （BNs） was presented. The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and. estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques. Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data, the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine, and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy. Experiments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance. Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares （LS） analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.     

Poisson型元件串并联系统和并串联系统的可靠性置信下限

运用Poisson分布的累积函数与不完全伽玛函数之间的关系,给出了Poisson型元件组成的串并联系统和并串联系统的可靠性表达式,然后根据Poisson型元件的样本数据求出未知参数的Fiducial分布,进而得到这两种系统可靠性Fiducial置信下限的计算公式,最后通过数值模拟验证了结论．     

删失样本下回归函数改良近邻估计的强相合性

在删失样本下 ,得到了回归函数m(x) =E(YX =x)的改良近邻估计 ^m n(x) =∑ni =1Wni(x)Y iI( Y i ≤bn)的强相合性。     

Genetic analysis for brix weight per stool and its component traits in sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum)

Brix weight per stool (BW) of sugarcane is a complex trait, which is the final product of a combination of many components. Diallel cross experiments were conducted during a period of two years for BW and its five component traits, in- cluding stalk diameter (SD), stalk length (SL), stalk number (SN), stalk weight (SW), and brix scale (BS) of sugarcane. Phenotypic data of all the six traits were analyzed by mixed linear model and their phenotype variances were portioned into additive (A), dominance (D), additive×environment interaction (AE) and dominance×environment interaction (DE) effects, and the correlations of A, D, AE and DE effects between BW and its components were estimated. Conditional analysis was employed to investigate the contribution of the components traits to the variances of A, D, AE and DE effects of BW. It was observed that the heritabilities of BW were significantly attributed to A, D and DE by 23.9%, 30.9% and 28.5%, respectively. The variance of A effect for BW was significantly affected by SL, SN and BS by 25.3%, 93.7% and 17.4%, respectively. The variances of D and DE effects for BW were also significantly influenced by all the five components by 5.1%～85.5%. These determinants might be helpful in sugarcane breeding and provide valuable information for multiple-trait improvement of BW.     

大学英语口语课应用同伴评价的信度与效度研究

同伴评价作为一种评价方式已经被忽略多年。很多研究者与教师都对它的可靠性和有效性心存疑虑。作者在一次平时英语口语测试中,采用了学生评价的方式对学生进行考核,把学生给同伴所打分的平均值与教师所给分值进行对比。通过此定量研究,作者意在调查英语口语教学实践中同伴评价的信度和效度。统计数据显示,学生给同伴所打分的平均值与教师所给分值非常接近。这也验证了在这种情况下,同伴评价具有较高的信度和效度。作者还开展了一个小组讨论来调查学生对这种评价方式的认同感以及所担心的问题。此调查对于未来同伴评价的设计具有一定的参考价值。