基于MODIS数据的泰国林地资源提取

遥感技术的发展为我们对世界资源的研究提供了新的手段,克服了世界资源研究过程中数据缺乏的困难。泰国曾经是林地资源丰富的国家,尤其是热带林地资源,但是近几十年来林地面积在不断减少,带来了一系列生态问题。选用MOD09Q1的1、2波段,MOD09A1的第6波段以及MOD11A2数据产品提取了泰国林地分布情况。由于泰国地处热带地区云雾噪音为林地的提取造成了很大的不确定性,为了有效去除云雾噪音影响,结合NDVI、NDSI、LST多参数在林地提取中的优势对泰国林地进行提取。采用泰国2003年统计年鉴提供的分省林地面积以及2003年p131r47和p131r48共2景ETM影像进行了精度验证。结果表明,利用多参数综合分类方法对林地提取精度较高,通过与2003年统计年鉴数据进行回归分析发现二者存在明显的线性关系,决定系数达到0.9264。     

基于遗传算法优化神经网络的参考作物蒸散量预测模型

为实现气象资料缺乏情况下参考作物蒸散量(ET0)的精确模拟,利用川中丘陵区3个气象站点1999-2013年的逐日气象资料作为输入量,以FAO-56 Penman-Monteith模型计算的ET0作为标准值,建立基于遗传算法优化神经网络的ET0模拟模型(GA-BPNN),并将其模拟结果同Hargreaves、Mc Cloud、Priestley-Taylor和Makkink等4种常用ET0计算模型的计算结果进行对比。结果表明:GA-BPNN模型能够很好地反映ET0同气象因素之间的非线性关系,模拟精度较高;当基于温度资料模拟ET0时,GA-BPNN模型模拟精度高于Hargreaves和Mc Cloud模型;当基于温度和辐射资料时,GA-BPNN模型模拟精度明显高于Priestley-Taylor和Makkink模型。因此GA-BPNN模型可以作为气象资料缺乏情况下川中丘陵区ET0模拟的推荐模型。     

利用云量估算南京地区日总辐射方法的研究

为填补实测太阳辐射资料的空缺,利用南京地区1961年-2010年常规气象资料建立了由总云量反演逐日太阳辐射的模型,并对南京地区近50年来太阳总辐射的变化特征进行了分析.首先采用南京气象站1961年-2000年实测太阳总辐射数据借助粒子群优化算法确定了模型参数,然后利用2001年-2010年数据对模型效果进行了检验.结果表明:辐射模型模拟值与实测值拟合程度较好,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和皮尔逊相关系数(r)分别为0.74、48.6W/m2和0.8.南京地区太阳总辐射受云量影响较大,其年内变化趋势基本与晴空辐射相吻合,但又存在差异,这主要是与梅雨季节有关.     

用excel宏程序提取fbd期刊数据的简易编程

【目的】使用excel宏程序从定版后的方正fbd小样文件提取多刊数据。【方法】 使用InputBox语句由用户输入刊物代号、年份、期次,确定并打开fbd文件为excel文件,数据基本都在第一列单元格中,用Ctrl Find语句定位数据,用循环语句和判断语句采集一个或多个单元格数据,最后是对数据的处理和写入。【结果】程序可有效用于提取《河北科技大学学报》、《河北工业科技》两个刊物的中英文题目、作者、单位、摘要、关键词,以及doi、收稿日期、e-mail、参考文献等数据,程序运行过程中只需使用者输入刊物代号、年和期。【结论】单独使用excel宏程序即可实现所有数据的提取,相对简单易行。【局限】此种编程容错能力较差,要求期刊格式固定不变。     

秦岭自然保护区群成本效益研究(Ⅱ)——成本效益预测

本研究在秦岭自然保护区群成本效益计量研究成果的基础上,对成本效益进行进一步分析及预测。运用统计软件SPSS17.0结合十余种拟合曲线,根据秦岭自然保护区群中7个国家级自然保护区的成本效益截面数据,尝试性地进行了综合效益及三大成本之间关系曲线拟合。研究结果表明：根据模型拟合优度R2大小及显著水平Sig.判断,最终得出了成本效益之间的关系式。即三个拟合函数分别是：①综合效益（Qt）与直接保护成本（Xa）的函数曲线方程为：Qt=-68.244＋870.688Xa-2493.849Xa2＋2304.879Xa3;②综合效益（Qt）与间接保护成本（Xb）的函数曲线方程为：Qt=17.844e1.986Xb;③综合效益（Qt）与机会保护成本（Xc）的函数曲线方程为：Qt=-78.157＋104.775Xc-32.953Xc2＋3.296Xc3。本研究结果可以为国家有关部门进行保护区投资做有益的帮助,同时为陕西省自然保护区保护政策的完善做理论支撑。     

重庆市主城区降雨侵蚀力特征分析

文章根据重庆市自建气象站以来的降雨过程资料(1954～2001)，对重庆市主城区降雨侵蚀力(R)及其特征进行了研究和分析。研究结果表明，研究区降雨侵蚀力主要集中在5月～9月，48年里研究区年降雨侵蚀力值变幅均较大，但从整体上来看，趋势保持平稳，其离差系数Cv和变化趋势系数r值分别为0.65和0.061； 研究区次降雨量与次降雨侵蚀力，月降雨量与月降雨侵蚀力均呈乘幂关系，而年降雨量与年降雨侵蚀力呈现指数关系； 为了解决在降雨资料不足的情况下对降雨侵蚀力的计算，文章利用不同的降雨资料与侵蚀力之间进行相关分析，最终确定了适合研究区的两种降雨侵蚀力简易算法。     

湖南岳阳杨树人工林光能利用率动态特征分析

植物光能利用率（Light Use Efficiency,LUE）作为表征植被利用光能合成生物化学能效率的重要指标,直接影响到生态系统生产力。本文使用2006年4月-10月湖南岳阳站通量观测资料,探讨杨树人工林不同时间尺度的光能利用率动态特征。结果表明：①杨树人工林生态系统典型晴天LUE_（30min）存在明显的＂V＂形日变化,其值介于（13.18~45.28）mmol/mol,最低值都出现在中午前后;②5日累计光能利用率（LUE_5）季节动态呈双峰型变化,峰值分别出现在5月初（42.57mmol/mol）和7月中旬（57.50mmol/mol）;③月尺度光能利用率（LUEmon）分别为24.79、27.85、20.95、42.27、32.60、24.91和10.47mmol/mol,最大值出现在7月份,且LUE_（mon）最大值较LUE5和LUE_（30min）低,最小值较LUE5和LUE_（30min）高。这些结果将为提高生态系统资源的利用提供重要的定量化依据。     

入选PubMed数据库对提升医学期刊国际影响力的作用

[目的]探讨入选PubMed数据库对提升我国医学期刊国际影响力的作用,分析加快医学期刊国际化的途径和策略。[方法]采用文献资料法、文献计量法,以2011版《中文核心期刊要目总览》中6种入选PubMed数据库和6种未入选PubMed数据库的综合性医药卫生类核心期刊为研究对象,以《中国科技期刊引证报告(核心版)》和SCI数据库为数据来源,利用SPSS20.0分别对期刊的国内被引频次、影响因子和期刊在SCI数据库的被引频次做两独立样本的非参数检验。[结果]入选PubMed的期刊在SCI数据库中的被引频次显著高于未入选PubMed的期刊(P<0.05),而两组期刊的国内被引频次和影响因子均无统计学差异(P>0.05)。[结论]入选PubMed数据库对提升医学期刊国际影响力具有重要作用。加快医学期刊的国际化除加入SCI外还可考虑加入PubMed数据库等。     

A comparison of feature selection methods for an evolving RSS feed corpus

Previous researchers have attempted to detect significant topics in news stories and blogs through the use of word frequency-based methods applied to RSS feeds. In this paper, the three statistical feature selection methods: χ², Mutual Information (MI) and Information Gain (I) are proposed as alternative approaches for ranking term significance in an evolving RSS feed corpus. The extent to which the three methods agree with each other on determining the degree of the significance of a term on a certain date is investigated as well as the assumption that larger values tend to indicate more significant terms. An experimental evaluation was carried out with 39 different levels of data reduction to evaluate the three methods for differing degrees of significance. The three methods showed a significant degree of disagreement for a number of terms assigned an extremely large value. Hence, the assumption that the larger a value, the higher the degree of the significance of a term should be treated cautiously. Moreover, MI and I show significant disagreement. This suggests that MI is different in the way it ranks significant terms, as MI does not take the absence of a term into account, although I does. I, however, has a higher degree of term reduction than MI and χ². This can result in loosing some significant terms. In summary, χ² seems to be the best method to determine term significance for RSS feeds, as χ² identifies both types of significant behavior. The χ² method, however, is far from perfect as an extremely high value can be assigned to relatively insignificant terms.     

Ethical protocols design

The paper offers a solution to the problem of specifying computational systems that behave in accordance with a given set of ethical principles. The proposed solution is based on the concepts of ethical requirements and ethical protocols. A new conceptual tool, called the Control Closure of an operation, is defined and used to translate ethical principles into ethical requirements and protocols. The concept of Generalised Informational Privacy (GIP) is used as a paradigmatic example of an ethical principle. GIP is defined in such a way as to (i) discriminate specific cases in which an individual’s GIP can be infringed without accessing the individual’s data; (ii) separate unauthorised accesses to data that do not respect the right to GIP from access that do; and (iii) distinguish different degrees of GIP. Finally a camera phone is used to illustrate the proposed solution.     

The Persistence of Information Structures in Nordic Countries

This article examines to what extent the Nordic countries, which have been characterized as the world's leading information societies, show similar patterns of Internet use. The data consists of the Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish sections of the European Social Survey 2002 ( n = 7539) and 2004 ( n = 7211). The similarities and differences in the Internet use are analyzed using sociodemographic and economic information. Temporal changes in the distribution of use between population groups and between countries are also examined. The findings indicate that there are clear disparities in the Internet use patterns, which have not evened out in the early 21st century.     

江苏淤泥质潮滩湿地互花米草扩张对湿地景观的影响

在RS和GIS技术支持下,结合盐城自然保护区典型区域潮滩湿地的区域特点,通过景观多样性指数、优势度、聚集度指数、分布质心和转移矩阵等方法,系统地分析了1996-2010年的14年间盐城潮滩湿地互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)沼泽景观的时空动态及其对湿地景观空间格局的影响。结果表明:1盐城潮滩湿地互花米草沼泽分布面积呈显著增加趋势。1996-2010年,面积增长了2 661.74hm2,年均增长177.45hm2,增幅215.42%,年均变化率14.36%;2空间上,潮滩湿地上的互花米草斑块质心总体向海偏移。其中,1996-2006年,年均向海移动110.96m/a;2006-2010年,年均向海移动74.97m/a;3受互花米草扩张影响,研究区景观格局发生了明显的变化。互花米草生长不仅抑制了本地湿地植被的自然增长,而且还改变着湿地植被景观的组成、结构和潮滩湿地景观系统整体格局。     

Personalization of tagging systems

Social media systems have encouraged end user participation in the Internet, for the purpose of storing and distributing Internet content, sharing opinions and maintaining relationships. Collaborative tagging allows users to annotate the resulting user-generated content, and enables effective retrieval of otherwise uncategorised data. However, compared to professional web content production, collaborative tagging systems face the challenge that end-users assign tags in an uncontrolled manner, resulting in unsystematic and inconsistent metadata.This paper introduces a framework for the personalization of social media systems. We pinpoint three tasks that would benefit from personalization: collaborative tagging, collaborative browsing and collaborative search. We propose a ranking model for each task that integrates the individual user’s tagging history in the recommendation of tags and content, to align its suggestions to the individual user preferences. We demonstrate on two real data sets that for all three tasks, the personalized ranking should take into account both the user’s own preference and the opinion of others.     

放牧压力下五台山高山、亚高山草甸的退化特征

放牧通过家畜的啃食、践踏、排泄干扰草甸环境,使草甸的物种组成发生改变,植物种群的优势地位发生更替。在样带和样地调查基础上,获取草地群落组成和样地环境数据,通过CCA排序对五台山高、亚高山草甸在经历放牧后的退化状况进行数量化评价,辨识草甸退化的不同等级。结果表明：共划分出5个退化等级,随着退化加剧：①群落环境因子牛马粪数量增加、土壤紧实度加大,土层厚度降低。极度退化草甸与其他4个退化等级之间的环境因子差异显著;②群落数量特征总盖度、生物量、物种丰富度、多样性指数降低,同时一二年生植物所占百分比升高;③放牧干扰草甸的优势种是嵩草、高原嵩草和直梗高山唐松草,轻度干扰草甸中嵩草、高原嵩草(亚高山草甸)/珠芽蓼、高山嵩草、发草(高山草甸)为优势种,中度退化草甸高原嵩草依然为优势种,重度和极度干扰草甸中优势种被鹅绒委陵菜和平车前取代。放牧已对五台山高山、亚高山草甸群落外貌造成了严重的不良影响,是草甸退化的重要影响因素。为防止草甸资源进一步退化,促进草甸植被恢复,实现资源的可持续利用,建议对中度退化以上草甸采取严格限制家畜数量、分期围封和人工建植乡土植被等措施。     

Sleepers Wake! Technology and the Future of Work by Barry Jones (Oxford University Press,Melbourne, 1983: first published 1982) pp. xii + 285, $9.99, ISBN: 0-195-54453-6

Development of the Pacific region depends upon communication and education of scientific and technological manpower as one aspect of human resource development. Statistical data to guide policy are lacking. Coordinated efforts within the Pacific community are needed to collect data and develop appropriate policies.     

A probabilistic model of information retrieval: development and comparative experiments: Part 2

The paper combines a comprehensive account of the probabilistic model of retrieval with new systematic experiments on TREC Programme material. It presents the model from its foundations through its logical development to cover more aspects of retrieval data and a wider range of system functions. Each step in the argument is matched by comparative retrieval tests, to provide a single coherent account of a major line of research. The experiments demonstrate, for a large test collection, that the probabilistic model is effective and robust, and that it responds appropriately, with major improvements in performance, to key features of retrieval situations.Part 1 covers the foundations and the model development for document collection and relevance data, along with the test apparatus. Part 2 covers the further development and elaboration of the model, with extensive testing, and briefly considers other environment conditions and tasks, model training, concluding with comparisons with other approaches and an overall assessment.Data and results tables for both parts are given in Part 1. Key results are summarised in Part 2.     

Higher alleles of apolipoprotein B gene 3′ VNTR: Risk for gallstone disease

Background: Imbalance in cholesterol homeostasis may lead to gallstone disease. Apolipoprotein B is sole component of low-density lipoprotein and plays an important role in cholesterol metabolism. The present study was carried out to explore the association of APOB 3′ VNTR, exon 26 XbaI and signal peptide insertion/ deletion polymorphisms with gallstone disease. 214 ultrasonographically proven gallstone patients and 322 healthy, age and sex matched controls were taken for the study. Genotyping was done using PCR followed by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis for VNTR and insertion/ deletion analysis. For APOB XbaI polymorphism PCR product was digested with XbaI restriction enzyme, followed by agarose gel electrophoresis. All statistical analyses were done using SPSS v11.5. Higher repeat alleles of APOB 3′ VNTR polymorphism were more frequent in gallstone patients than in controls. Alleles with more than 57 repeats were present only in patient group. Long (L) alleles with repeat higher than 49, were significantly higher (P=0.000; OR=3.705, 95% CI 2.577–5.326) and medium (M) alleles were lower (P=0.000; OR=0.406, 95% CI 0.304–0.542) in patients than in controls. To nullify the effect of gender, data was further stratified into male and female population. APOB 3′ VNTR, L alleles were imposing risk and M alleles were protective in both male and female population. APOB XbaI and insertion/deletion polymorphisms were not found to be associated with the gallstone disease. Longer alleles of APOB 3′ VNTR occur more frequently in gallstone patients, and may be an important risk factor for the development of gallstone disease. APOB XbaI and signal peptide insertion/deletion polymorphisms may not be contributing to the risk for gallstone disease.     

基于大数据回溯新冠肺炎的扩散趋势及中国对疫情的控制研究

自2019年12月以来,湖北省武汉市出现新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称"新冠肺炎"),随后疫情在全国范围内暴发。相关学者对此次疫情扩散趋势做了大量研究,但基于模型的估算普遍存在高估传染系数和感染人群的问题。基于此,利用大数据回溯新冠肺炎在全国扩散的趋势和传染系数,得出结论:(1)在扩散前期(2020年1月24号之前)武汉输出的人口是全国各城市(武汉除外)新冠肺炎扩散的主要威胁,之后每个省、自治区、直辖市的人口与确诊病例数的关系逐渐增强,体现出本地传播的趋势;(2)利用SEIR模型拟合武汉和北京两地新冠肺炎确诊病例得出真实传播系数(R₀),揭示武汉的R0高于北京,考虑到人为控制因素,2019年12月1日—2020年2月9日两地的实际的R₀均大幅度下降。基于此,对疫情期间存在的问题进行针对性建议,并从数据上论证了中国政府对于疫情扩散强有力的控制能力,对阻止国内及世界范围的疫情扩散作出积极贡献。     

黑河流域中游地区近43 年来农作物需水量的变化趋势分析

根据黑河流域中游地区7个气象站点1967年-2009年的逐日气象资料,利用FAOPenman-Monteith模型和所提供的作物系数计算出主要作物不同生育阶段的需水量,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法对主要作物需水量的变化特征进行了研究,并对引起作物需水量的驱动因子进行了相关性分析,在此基础上,应用基于分型理论的R/S方法对作物需水量的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：近43年来,中游地区春小麦和玉米ETc均呈波动下降趋势,春小麦下降斜率为6mm/10a,玉米下降斜率为8mm/10a;其中,民乐和甘州站春小麦和玉米的ETc呈缓慢上升趋势,其他站点春小麦和玉米的ETc均呈下降趋势,且部分站点下降趋势显著。春小麦和玉米ETc的主要影响因子均为相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速。中游地区各站点春小麦和玉米需水量Hurst指数H均大于0.5,同时分维数D均小于1.5,因此未来一段时间ETc仍然保持与过去相一致的变化趋势。