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组合方法首先选取支持向量机预测算法和一阶指数平滑法对经济时间序列分别进行预测,来建立模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型。为对比模糊自适应变权重的经济时间序列组合预测模型的预测效果,选取了两种定值加权组合预测模型:平均加权模型、误差平方和最小组合预测模型。通过实验比较分析:模糊自适应变权重组合预测可以综合利用各单项预测方法的优点,比单一模型预测结果精度有了很大提高,且优于定值加权组合预测,在经济时间序列的预测方面有较高的应用价值。 相似文献
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分布式拒绝服务(DDoS)攻击由于其攻击的隐蔽性和分布性而难于检测和防御,成为当今网络安全领域最难解决的问题之一。文章本文利用前馈神经网络理论和方法建立了DDOS检测模型。经过实验结果证明,建立的神经网络模型预测精度高,泛化能力强,具有很好的应用前景。 相似文献
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基于模糊神经网络的高校科技成果转化评价研究 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:5
针对高校科技成果转化具有一定模糊性的特点,利用模糊神经网络具有模糊化和良好泛化(预测)能力,在给出高校科技成果转化评价指标的基础上,建立了高校科技成果转化评价的模糊神经网络模型.实例验证了该模型具有较好的学习能力,可以较好地对高校科技成果转化进行评价. 相似文献
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文章基于粒子群BP神经网络,同时结合水利水电工程等级划分标准建立大型水电工程投资估算模型。并利用MATLAB软件实现了模型的训练与测试。最后对已建水电工程进行了预测。结果表明模型改进了现有水电工程投资估算方法,在水电工程投资估算中具有较高的精度与泛化能力。 相似文献
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基于长短期记忆神经网络的短期负荷预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
《黑龙江科技信息》2016,(31)
为了能够挖掘出海量数据中蕴含的有效信息,提高短期负荷预测精度,本文提出了具有深度学习能力的长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)模型进行短期负荷预测,深度学习顺应了大数据的趋势,对海量数据学习、泛化能力强。利用主成分分析方法对样本进行选择,进而建立LSTM预测模型。仿真结果表明,采用LSTM预测模型相对于BP神经网络模型提高了预测精度。 相似文献
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BP神经网络在我国粮食产量预测中的应用 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
本文基于BP神经网络模型,进行了2001-2010年我国粮食产量的预测。通过对比传统的“平均增长率一阶滞后模型”拟合及预测1992-2000年粮食产量与实际产量的误差值大小,可明显看出BP神经网络对于处理单输入单输出的时间序列预测问题是一种更具优越性的方法,它具有很强的学习与泛化(推广)能力,具有很好的应用价值。 相似文献
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The terminal iterative learning control is designed for nonlinear systems based on neural networks. A terminal output tracking error model is obtained by using a system input and output algebraic function as well as the differential mean value theorem. The radial basis function neural network is utilized to construct the input for the system. The weights are updated by optimizing an objective function and an auxiliary error is introduced to compensate the approximation error from the neural network. Both time-invariant input case and time-varying input case are discussed in the note. Strict convergence analysis of proposed algorithm is proved by the Lyapunov like method. Simulations based on train station control problem and batch reactor are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. 相似文献
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最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machine,LS—SVM)具有很好的非线形逼近能力和泛化能力,通过研究逆模型存在的条件,提出了基于LS—SVM的逆模型辨识方法。仿真结果表明基于LS—SVM的逆模型辨识方法在处理非线性对象时,辨识精度、辨识速度、泛化能力都要强于BP算法。 相似文献
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基于支持向量机的股票投资价值分类模型研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文遵循价值投资理念,建立基于支持向量机的股票投资价值分类模型。首先随机抽取500支A股股票作为样本,并选取对股票投资价值影响显著的财务指标构造样本特征集,然后采用支持向量机方法建立股票投资价值分类模型,最后将其与BP神经网络和RBF神经网络相比较,结果表明支持向量机的分类效果和泛化能力最优。 相似文献
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This paper studies the problem of adaptive neural network (NN) output-feedback control for a group of uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems (MASs) from the viewpoint of cooperative learning. It is assumed that all MASs have identical unknown nonlinear dynamic models but carry out different periodic control tasks, i.e., each agent system has its own periodic reference trajectory. By establishing a network topology among systems, we propose a new consensus-based distributed cooperative learning (DCL) law for the unknown weights of radial basis function (RBF) neural networks appearing in output-feedback control laws. The main advantage of such a learning scheme is that all estimated weights converge to a small neighborhood of the optimal value over the union of all system estimated state orbits. Thus, the learned NN weights have better generalization ability than those obtained by traditional NN learning laws. Our control approach also guarantees the convergence of tracking errors and the stability of closed-loop system. Under the assumption that the network topology is undirected and connected, we give a strict proof by verifying the cooperative persisting excitation condition of RBF regression vectors. This condition is defined in our recent work and plays a key role in analyzing the convergence of adaptive parameters. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to verify the effectiveness and advantages of the control scheme proposed in this paper. 相似文献
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基于小波网络的电力系统短期负荷预报研究 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
本文结合小波和神经网络方法进行电力系统短期负荷预测的通用模型和方法的研究,建立了负荷预报的小波网络模型,确定了有效的算法求解小波函数线性组合的尺度和时延参数以及神经网络的权值。 相似文献
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神经网络和传统线性模型结合为处理混沌时间序列提供了新的途径。将Elman神经网络和单整自回归移动平均模型结合起来,同时分析我国进出口贸易量时间序列中的线性和非线性两部分,得到更准确的预测精度。实证表明,复合模型吸收两类方法的优点,较单一模型能够更有效地预测我国进出口数据。 相似文献
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人工神经网络在地球物理领域中,尤其在模式识别和油气预测方面得到了较好的应用.前向网络的重要特性是能够总结、归纳已知样本隐含的函数关系.然而其推广性能有待进一步研究.本文强调了该问题的重要性并提出了改善网络推广性能的技术,即在网络学习过程中,不仅让总误差下降,还尽可能使建立的“隐函数”平滑.计算实例表明,本文的算法可以明显地改善网络的推广性能.最后给出了用该技术在辽河油田进行油气预测的实例 相似文献
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Multi-layer self-organizing polynomial neural networks and their development with the use of genetic algorithms 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sung-Kwun Oh 《Journal of The Franklin Institute》2006,343(2):125-136
In this paper, we introduce a new architecture of genetic algorithms (GA)-based self-organizing polynomial neural networks (SOPNN) and discuss a comprehensive design methodology. Let us recall that the design of the “conventional” PNNs uses an extended group method of data handling (GMDH) and exploits polynomials (such as linear, quadratic, and modified quadratic functions) as well as considers a fixed number of input nodes (as being selected in advance by a network designer) at polynomial neurons (or nodes) located in each layer. The proposed GA-based SOPNN gives rise to a structurally optimized structure and comes with a substantial level of flexibility in comparison to the one we encounter in conventional PNNs. The design procedure applied in the construction of each layer of a PNN deals with its structural optimization involving the selection of preferred nodes (or PNs) with specific local characteristics (such as the number of input variables, the order of the polynomial, and a collection of the specific subset of input variables) and addresses specific aspects of parametric optimization. An aggregate performance index with a weighting factor is proposed in order to achieve a sound balance between approximation and generalization (predictive) abilities of the network. To evaluate the performance of the GA-based SOPNN, the model is experimented with using chaotic time series data. A comparative analysis reveals that the proposed GA-based SOPNN exhibits higher accuracy and superb predictive capability in comparison to some previous models available in the literature. 相似文献