Intuitive expertise: Theories and empirical evidence

Intuition has been long seen as an element of effective human performance in demanding tasks (i.e. expertise). But its form, constitutive elements and development remain subject to diverse explanations. This paper discusses these elements and explores theories and empirical evidence about what constitutes intuitive expertise, and offers an account arising from a review of these explanations. Commencing with a consideration of examples of intuition from distinct fields of working life, it uses a cognitive perspective to open up the discussion for theorizing about intuition from an information processing perspective. It evaluates the widely acknowledged theory of two systems of information processing that proposes two parallel operating systems: the rational and intuitive. This theory provides foundations for understanding experts’ abilities to act intuitively in high-performance-level activities. Research on expertise, finally, opens an educational perspective on intuition, with the progression from novice to expert being understood as an enduring and long-term learning process that inherently generates intuitive capabilities. The paper concludes by returning to and making connections with the literature on workplace and professional learning to provide insights into how individual and social learning processes support the development of intuitive expertise.     

Professional Competence and Intuitive Decision Making: A Simulation Study in the Domain of Emergency Medicine

Intuition presents as a crucial component of professional competence for many occupations, including emergency physicians because many of their decisions have to be made quickly. When arriving at the scene of an accident, they promptly have to assess the circumstances and initiate immediate life-saving measures without opportunities for deep analyses of patients’ conditions. Therefore, spontaneous and intuitive decisions are required to solve the problem appropriately, rather than more intentional and time-consuming forms of decision-making. Yet, the efficacy of and processes underpinning these intuitive activities remain far from fully understood or clearly conceptualised. The study reported here aims at revealing the efficacy of such intuition by analysing decision-making behaviour of emergency physicians. Based on patient simulation mannequins, which can be programmed to present specified clinical situations, three groups of participants with different levels of emergency medicine expertise (n ₁  = 10 novices, n ₂  = 10 semi-experts, n ₃  = 10 experts) each addressed two different authentic problem cases. In the first simulation, time pressure was utilised to press participants to decide intuitively. In the second simulation, the participants had to legitimise their decisions without any time pressure in order to generate rational decisions. Whereas no clear difference in the participants’ performances between both cases could be identified, experts and semi-experts performed better than novices in their intuitive decision-making, thereby supporting beliefs about the efficacy of intuition. It is proposed that medical education, as well as other forms of occupational preparation, should consider theories of mental simulations in order to improve surgeons’ professional education.     

基于VAR模型的资产市场规模与通货膨胀的关联性研究

观察近二十年来的货币供应量与反映通货膨胀的指标,发现在货币供应量高速增长的情况下,通货膨胀并没有十分严重。通过分析资产市场对通货膨胀的关联性,选取2003-2013年狭义货币供应量(M1)、房地产开发投资以及股票市场融资规模的月度数据,运用Cen-susX12季节调整法以及VAR模型进行实证分析。发现股票市场对于通货膨胀有显著的正效应,而房地产市场则对通货膨胀有一定的负向冲击,有缓冲的作用。合理地保持房地产市场与股票市场的波动区间有利于货币政策的稳健性,引导股票市场和房地产市场的供需对于通货膨胀合理运行来说有深远的意义。     

Option Strike Price and Managerial Investment Decisions

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我国投资银行在企业并购业务中存在的问题及对策

企业并购是投资银行的一项十分重要的业务,投资银行的并购业务是指投资银行为协助企业进行合并与收购而展开的一系列融资服务活动。本文就我国投资银行在企业并购中的作用、存在问题及对策提出探讨。     

Intuitive ethics: Understanding and critiquing the role of intuition in ethical decisions

This article examines the role intuition plays in forming ethical decisions. First, the article reviews examples of intuitive ethics in professional communication research. Second, the article suggests that intuition is the naturalization of dominant cultural values and beliefs. Third, the article considers naturalized values within institutions and organizations, demonstrating how naturalized values can lead to unquestioned and oppressive institutional practices. Ethical inquiry, according to this view, investigates and denaturalizes those assumptions that are carried forth by intuition. Fourth, the article offers a pedagogical example of this theory, demonstrating how a group of business communication students investigated the intuitive practices of a non‐profit organization. The article concludes by suggesting the value that a “critique of intuition” may have for the teaching, study, and practice of professional ethics.     

从股权分置改革谈我国证券市场功能的完善

我国的证券市场具有融通资金、配置资源、投资、实现企业转制等多种功能。证券市场的发展在调整与优化经济结构、促进社会主义市场体系的建立和完善、帮助企业经营机制的转换、拓宽储蓄向投资转化的渠道等方面发挥了积极的作用。但由于股权分置,使证券市场的功能定位出现偏差,重融资功能而轻投资功能和优化资源配置功能已影响证券市场的健康发展。股权分置改革将促进我国证券市场功能的完善。     

基于个人投资者的移动平均线理论应用——以上证指数1A0001为例

中国股票市场由于体制等原因,投机现象严重,远不能称为有效市场,技术分析在股票投资中仍可以起到规避风险、获取收益的指导作用;移动平均线理论作为技术分析的一种方法,广为投资者所采用,以葛兰维移动平均线八大法则为基础,结合上证指数走势情况进行分析,为个人投资者提供一种股市投资的实证分析。     

以职业能力培养为导向的证券投资实践性教学改革探讨

证券投资实践性教学在教学目标、内容体系、组织方式和教学监控等方面存在缺陷,应根据职业能力的培养要求,设置模拟投资、解盘、咨询、荐股、研究等模块,通过竞赛、研讨等方式进行导学和考核,创新实践性教学模式,更好地实现应用型人才培养目标。     

优化股市运行机制 保护中小投资者利益

目前,我国股市存在着上市公司行为、机构行为的不规范性甚至违法性问题,严重损害了中小投资者的利益.优化股市运行机制,保护中小投资者利益势在必行.需要做到规范上市公司行为,加快公司治理结构建设进程;加强监管力度,引导理性投资;完善退市机制,优化股市投资环境.     

中国股市规模增长模式--基于月份数据的实证

基于2001年1月-2004年12月份数据的分析表明,中国股票市场走出“机械增长模式”的阴影,却跌入“交易价格增长模式”陷阱,根源在于参与者结构的不均衡及其基于有限理性的博弈。只有发展机构投资者,改变股票市场参与者结构,使参与者之间的博弈形成新的均衡,才能使中国股市逐步向自然增长模式过渡。     

Data use by teachers: the impact of motivation,decision-making style,supportive relationships and reflective capacity

There is a growing expectation that schools should systematically collect and analyse data as a point of departure for decisions. However, research shows that teachers themselves are less convinced that they need to base their decisions on data, as they mainly rely on their intuition and experience. This article examines the extent to which teachers use data as a source of information for decisions at classroom level and what motivates them to use these data. We will also look at what impact the teacher’s decision-making style, supportive relationships and the reflective capacity of the school team have on teachers’ motivation for using data. Our research data was collected by means of an online survey of 408 teachers in 52 primary schools in Flanders. The results demonstrate that the quality of teachers’ motivation for using data is a key element in promoting data use in schools. Teachers who feel autonomously motivated will make greater use of data than teachers with a controlled motivation. We found that the use of a rational decision-making style by teachers, supportive relationships within the school and the reflective capacity of the school team all lead to an increase in teachers’ autonomous motivation for using data.     

A nuanced critical realist approach to educational policy and practice development: Redefining the nature of practitioners’ agency

In an age of nationalisation of international educational (leadership) policy, or vice versa, the politics and conflicts behind such policies often take centre stage to the detriment of (research-based) professional expertise. In response, this article develops a nuanced critical realism to propose a practice-based development and implementation of educational (leadership) policy reforms. Based on empirical reports of head teachers’ subversive practice, the article concludes by highlighting that professional expertise is a central component, dubbed ‘formless capability’ (potency), that all stakeholders use to turn policy intentions into policy actions (Actuality). Actuality consists of the three traditional domains of critical realism – the real, the actual and the empirical – whose importance is derived from whether it is a means to (incomplete action) or an end in itself (complete action). It is argued here that empirical experiences of leading schools are the stage of actuality that is directly linked to the complete action of students’ learning and, therefore, stands the most chance of being faithfully and successfully embedded and implemented. Policy mechanisms, therefore, need to reflect such research-based knowledge.     

学校本位教师专业发展:框架及其意义

学校本位教师专业发展涉及三个要素:一是需求驱动,即教师专业发展必须是基于教师自身的兴趣与需求,它揭示了教师专业发展的源动力;二是专业合作,即对于教师个体而言,专业发展的重要路径和标志在于如何通过专业合作提升自身基于情景的专业知识和智慧,它揭示了教师知识是基于情景的,而情景知识的获得有赖于教师同伴为了实现知识共享而开展的专业合作;三是支持制度,即无论作为个体还是群体,教师专业发展都是一种过程,需要学校建立一套支持的制度,以保障此过程是专业的、可持续的,它揭示了教师专业那种持续的发展过程有赖于专业的支持制度的保障。本文以上述三个普遍要素作为三个维度,试图建构学校本位教师专业发展的分析框架。     

数理统计在ST类股票投资风险分析中的应用

选取了沪深两市中有代表性的ST股票及其股价变化状况,结合风险评价理论,采用β系数及相应的风险分析法,对ST股票的投资风险进行实证研究.结果表明,ST类股票在二级市场上的投资风险远大于证券市场平均投资风险;最后还就中小投资者如何规避股票的投资风险提出了建议.     

Positioning adult educators in discourses of professional development

This article explores the discursive work done by different notions of professional development in adult education. In particular we outline the ways in which the discourses of technical expertise, competence and reflective practice are deployed to mobilise professional practices and identities in particular ways and position certain practices and dispositions as specifically professional. We suggest that these discourses help to shape the negotiations between economies of performance and ecologies of practice within which professionals operate. We argue that much of this work is implicit in the pedagogies and curriculum of programmes for adult educators and that there is a need for detailed empirical research on the pedagogies of professional development and practice in adult education. With moves in Europe to develop professional standards for adult educators we suggest that studying the rhetoric of professional development provides an opportunity to open some existing diverse practices to new forms of scrutiny.     

试论证券市场的伦理相关性

证券市场不仅仅属于金融领域,也与伦理密切相关。证券市场中的信用缺失以及对三公原则的践踏,必然引起广泛的社会灾难。证券市场的高风险特质、交易的预期性与非人格化特征决定了证券市场的良序发展必然依赖诚信原则和三公原则。诚信是行为人建立在诚实可信基础上的心理承诺与契约实践相统一的行为及其道德价值的体现,它有效制约和防范市场主体的个人行为;三公原则致力于市场环境的公开、公平与公正,保证所有市场参与者都能按照市场经济的原则,在相互尊重对方利益的基础上进行投融资活动,是证券市场规范化的一个基本要求,是保障投资者合法利益的前提和基础。诚信原则和三公原则共同构成证券市场的伦理原则体系,共同保障证券市场健康稳定的发展。     

时间序列分析对A、B股市场的预测能力研究

检验了中国股票市场上广泛运用的四种基于移动平均技术分析交易规则,并且将香港股票市场等外部信息包含在基于技术分析的交易规则中来预测中国内陆股市的走势。实证结果表明,在上证综指、深证成指、上证B股指数和深证B股指数市场上,基于技术分析的交易规则有一定的预测性;运用反映在香港股票市场上的信息来预测内陆股市的趋势的效果与单独运用内陆股市的信息来预测的效果相差很大,这主要是因为两个股票市场间相对于实物贸易市场有更大的分割。     

外国投资者与股票市场波动关系研究综述

外国投资者特别是境外机构投资者对新兴市场国家股票市场波动的影响是金融市场开放过程中被关注的首要问题。综观外国投资者特别是机构投资者对新兴市场国家股票市场波动影响的相关研究,发现已有的研究在样本数据选择、资本市场开放界定、波动度量以及计量方法等方面存在差异,得出的结论也不一致。一些文献表明外国投资者降低新兴市场国家股市的波动性,另一些文献则得出相反的结论,还有部分研究没有得出明确的结论。