The future ain't what it used to be: Forecasting the impact of ICT on the public sphere

The American baseball play Yogi Berra once observed that “The future ain’t what it used to be”. Berra's colourful expression states a fundamental truth: the future as we perceive it today is, more often than not, not how it was perceived in the past. The proof is in the chequered history of forecasting in every field from politics to technology. e-Government and e-democracy are no exceptions. In this article we examine the problem of inaccurate forecasting of the impact of ICT in the public sector. To do this, we use a typology of forecast failure and then use this typology to examine three case of inaccurate forecasts of the impact of e-government and e-democracy over the past 25 years and ask why these predictions were wrong. Drawing on the lessons from these examples and others, we propose a series of steps/actions that can help to reduce the probability of such errors occurring in the future.     

数字图书馆及其对技术服务的影响

文章论述了图书馆技术服务环境的变化。从需要制定新的文献选择标准,选择和采访工作的难度,引进新思想、新概念并建立新的采集模型以及“按需出版”改变采购方式等方面,论述了数字图书馆对文献选择与采访的影响。作者提出,编目工作量的减少和电子信息资源的增多,对编目人员知识和技能的提高提出了更高的要求;网络的发展和建设需要图书馆员和图书馆界的参与。     

Comparing scientific and technological impact of biomedical research

Traditionally, the number of citations that a scholarly paper receives from other papers is used as the proxy of its scientific impact. Yet citations can come from domains outside the scientific community, and one such example is through patented technologies—paper can be cited by patents, achieving technological impact. While the scientific impact of papers has been extensively studied, the technological aspect remains less known in the literature. Here we aim to fill this gap by presenting a comparative study on how 919 thousand biomedical papers are cited by U.S. patents and by other papers over time. We observe a positive correlation between citations from patents and from papers, but there is little overlap between the two domains in either the most cited papers, or papers with the most delayed recognition. We also find that the two types of citations exhibit distinct temporal variations, with patent citations lagging behind paper citations for a median of 6 years for the majority of papers. Our work contributes to the understanding of the technological impact of papers.     

Technological opportunity discovery for technological convergence based on the prediction of technology knowledge flow in a citation network

As technological convergence has recently become a mainstream innovation trend, technological opportunities need to be explored in heterogeneous technology fields. Most of the previous convergence studies have taken a retrospective view in measuring the degree of convergence and monitoring the converging trends. This paper proposes a quantitative future-oriented approach to technological opportunity discovery for convergence using patent information. In a future-oriented approach, technological opportunities for convergence are suggested by predicting potential technological knowledge flows (TKFs) between heterogeneous fields. The potential TKFs are predicted by a link prediction method in a directed network, which is suggested in this paper to represent the direction of the predicted TKFs by adapting the concept of bibliographic coupling and edge-betweenness centrality. Converging technological opportunities are proposed as incremental and radical technological opportunities by extracting the potential increased knowledge flow links and emerging knowledge flow links. Moreover, the direction and themes of the predicted potential TKFs are provided as technological opportunities for convergence. As an illustration of the proposed method, the technological opportunities between biotechnology (BT) and information technology (IT) are explored. Firms and researchers can use the proposed method to seek out new technological opportunities from various technologies so that R&D policymakers can plan new R&D projects on technological convergence.     

The effects of ICT use and ICT Laws on corruption: A general deterrence theory perspective

Investigations of white collar crimes such as corruption are often hindered by the lack of information or physical evidence. Information and communication technologies (ICT), by virtue of their ability to monitor, track, record, analyze, and share vast amounts of information may help countries identify and prosecute criminals, and deter future corruption. While prior studies have demonstrated that ICT is an important tool in reducing corruption at the country level, they provide little explanation as to how ICT influences corruption and when does it work best. We explore these gaps in the literature using the hypothetico-deductive approach to research, by using general deterrence theory to postulate a series of main and moderating effects relating ICT use and corruption, and then testing those effects using secondary data analysis. Our analysis suggests that ICT use influences corruption by increasing the certainty and celerity of punishment related to corruption. Moreover, ICT laws moderate the effect of ICT use on corruption, suggesting that ICT investments may have limited effect on corruption, unless complemented with appropriate ICT laws. Implications of our findings for research and practice are discussed.     

Resource Sharing in the ICT Era: The Case of Nigerian University Libraries

The paper examines how information and communication technology can be utilized for resource sharing among university libraries in Nigeria. It was based on the study and review of recent library and information science literature on both print and electronic resources. It discusses the meaning of information and communication technology, resource sharing practices, and how information and communication technology facilitates resource sharing. It traces the history of resource sharing among Nigerian libraries. The current state of information and communication technology application and utilization in Nigeria and its university libraries is revealed, with emphasis on university libraries that are located in different zones of the country. The paper examines challenges facing Nigerian University Libraries with respect to information and communication technology application and utilization for resource sharing, as well as to areas of library operations to which information and communication technology can be applied and utilized for resource sharing. It concludes by proffering solutions for viable information and communication technologies–based cooperation among university libraries in Nigeria.     

The impact of basal readers on the curriculum

Despite frequent criticisms of basal readers, most teachers use them as a basic instructional tool or as a springboard for other reading activities. Basals play an important role in translating research into practice. As our understanding of the reading process changes, so do the contents of basal readers. Used selectively and with judgment, basals can help teachers provide a research-based reading program for today’s children. Through understanding how teachers use these materials, publishers can design basals to meet their needs more effectively. Ruthellen Crews teaches children’s literature and language arts courses in the College of Education at the University of Florida. She has coauthored a language arts series and a basal reading series. Formerly a classroom teacher at elementary and secondary levels, she strongly supports an integrated approach to teaching.     

电子书版权的技术保护措施

随着电子书的飞速发展,其版权问题日益受到人们的关注,文章论述了电子书的版权问题及技术保护措施.     

The impact of the hybrid library on strategic management

This paper examines in detail one aspect of the eLib funded BUILDER hybrid library project ‐ the impact of the BUILDER Project on strategic management within the University of Birmingham. Data was collected from senior managers at the outset and end of the Project to explore their changing views on the concept of the hybrid library and its development, and to identify the extent to which the BUILDER Project had influenced their thinking. Although BUILDER was considered to be having an impact on many Schools, social, political and technological developments in the wider arena were having the most impact. It was acknowledged that the services and technologies developed through the Project would be valuable in supporting the transition towards a hybrid environment, and had worked consistently to do this. The paper sets this data within the broader context of factors influencing change in university strategic management over the past five years.     

The impact of the mass media on source commitment

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of the mass media in creating source commitment. The results showed that the type of source commitment studied in the experiment was not significantly affected by the preparation and transmission of mass media messages.     

传媒业品牌经营探析

品牌经营是我国传媒业的一个热点，也是一个颇有争议的现象。从全世界范围和我国传媒业品牌经营发展把来看，品牌经营是一个发展趋势，也是一个不断探索、不断创新的过程。摆脱绝对化误读，把握好传媒品牌在品牌价值、品牌传播、品牌利益几个层面的基本关系，不断开拓创新，是我国传媒业品牌经营的基本思路。     

The impact of technology on publishing

Technology today more than ever has a disruptive impact on publishing. The Internet, printing-on-demand and the e-book are the main drivers of change, impacting all aspects of the publishing value chain—from the way books are published (authors can go direct to the reader), distributed (electronic marketplaces), sold (e-tailers) and read (electronic books). The author examines the context of the publishing industry in which these changes are occurring, describes the main drivers and impacts of these changes and illustrates them with an example from the information publishing industry. This paper is based on a presentation made during the conference ‘Blinded by the E-Light’ sponsored by Vista Computer Services (www.vistacomp.com) on June 15, 2000 in New York, NY.     

论科技期刊的引导作用

科技期刊的功能作用是多方面的,其中的引导科技发展的作用十分重要,应引起重视。作者以《建筑学报》为例,首先从五个方面说明科技期刊的引导作用。这五个方面是:1.报道各专业重要学术研究成果;2.发表重要专题学术会议论文;3.刊登评论;4.刊登方向性、综合性文章;5.报道评选和竞赛。接着,专门阐述了总体设计构思对充分发挥科技期刊引导作用的重要性,提出总体设计构思应体现在期刊的年与年之间、期与期之间和篇与篇之间。     

Interorganizational networks: The convergence of cooperative Competitors

This paper extends organizational communication research by considering external organizational issues. It analyzes the interorganizational network of real estate companies and the relationship of their network positions to organization‐level perceptions about the system. The network is divided into: (1) one group of organizations that were sparsely connected, and (2) stand‐alone organizations that were isolated from the prevailing group and each other. This interorganizational network analysis is grounded in institutionalization and resource dependence theory, vis‐à‐vis overlapping perceptions of the system, elicited by answers to open‐ended interviews. Results indicate institutionalized perceptions occurred for the group‐member organizations through indirect exposure to information in the environment. Specifically, organizations who shared similar roles in the network have convergent interpretations. These data support Mizruchi's (1993) theory that prominent organizations are more similar than those who have more peripheral roles in a network.