Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply: survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office

This study considers a frailty duration approach to modelling the life-length of a sample of 360 films that went into wide release at the Australian box office from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2005. The analysis extends previous research by considering a range of film-specific covariates relating to distribution, production, consumer signals, and weekly performance. In particular, it is shown that film success (defined in a duration context) responds to previewing, advertising, critical reviews, and US box office—but not to production budget, star power or opening-week screens. The study also reveals that it is appropriate to account for unobservable heterogeneity between films in the choice of empirical methodology.     

Towards a Culture of Application: Science and Decision Making at the National Institute of Standards &; Technology

How does the research performed by a government mission agency contribute to useable technologies for its constituents? Is it possible to incorporate science policy mechanisms for increasing benefits to users in the decision process? The United States National Institute of Standards &; Technology (NIST) promises research directed towards industrial application. This paper considers the processes that produce science and technology at NIST. The institute’s policies for science provide robust examples for how effective science policies can contribute to the emergence of useful technologies. To progress towards technologies that can be years away, the agency uses several means for integrating the needs of eventual information users into the prioritization process. To accomplish this, NIST units, such as the Materials Science and Engineering Laboratory, incorporate mechanisms for considering user need and project impact into different stages of its scientific decision processes. This, and other specific strategies that the agency utilizes for connecting the supply of science to information demand, provide lessons for generating useable science.     

Probability Density Function Method for Observing Reconstructed Attractor Structure

Probability density function (PDF) method is proposed for analysing the structure of the reconstructed attractor in computing the correlation dimensions of RR intervals of ten normal old men. PDF contains important information about the spatial distribution of the phase points in the reconstructed attractor. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that the PDF method is put forward for the analysis of the reconstructed attractor structure. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the cardiac systems of healthy old men are about 6 - 6.5 dimensional complex dynamical systems. It is found that PDF is not symmetrically distributed when time delay is small, while PDF satisfies Gaussian distribution when time delay is big enough. A cluster effect mechanism is presented to explain this phenomenon. By studying the shape of PDFs, that the roles played by time delay are more important than embedding dimension in the reconstruction is clearly indicated. Results have demonstrated that the PDF method represents a promising numerical approach for the observation of the reconstructed attractor structure and may provide more information and new diagnostic potential of the analyzed cardiac system.     

Expertise Reversal Effect and Its Implications for Learner-Tailored Instruction

The interactions between levels of learner prior knowledge and effectiveness of different instructional techniques and procedures have been intensively investigated within a cognitive load framework since mid-90s. This line of research has become known as the expertise reversal effect. Apart from their cognitive load theory-based prediction and explanation, patterns of empirical findings on the effect fit well those in studies of Aptitude Treatment Interactions (ATI) that were originally initiated in mid-60s. This paper reviews recent empirical findings associated with the expertise reversal effect, their interpretation within cognitive load theory, relations to ATI studies, implications for the design of learner-tailored instructional systems, and some recent experimental attempts of implementing these findings into realistic adaptive learning environments.     

Programmatic choices and the demand for theatre: the case of Flemish theatres

Theatre experts generally agree that the Flemish theatre has flourished artistically over the period 1980–2000. Attendance, on the other hand, has declined significantly. Following Lancaster’s characteristics approach, we identify several output characteristics of individual theatre productions. Using a panel of 59 Flemish theatres, we examine the impact on demand of both these output characteristics and of traditional determinants such as own price, income and the price of substitutes. Differences in the relevant geographical market for touring and non-touring theatres are considered. We find that the nature of the artistic output affects demand. Theatregoers prefer large productions (in terms of cast size), plays by Dutch-speaking playwrights and revivals of old productions. Own price and consumer income have the expected negative and positive effects on attendance. Observed trends toward a decreasing proportion of new plays, an increasing presence of plays by Dutch-speaking playwrights, and increasing consumer income had a stimulating effect on attendance. These trends have been offset, however, by trends toward smaller cast sizes and higher ticket prices as well as by unobserved factors captured by time dummies. The net result has been a considerable drop in attendance.

Two games in town: a comparison of dealer and auction prices in contemporary visual arts markets

The article tests a couple of hypotheses relating to markets where demand is not taken as a given, but subject to sophisticated and encompassing price-building strategies. The study uses a data set that provides quoted dealer prices for medium-sized works of 100 leading visual artists from 1970 to 2004. These data are compared with auction price results for works by the same artists. The study reports significant discrepancies with respect to the relationship between the age of artists and prices paid for their works in the two markets, and with respect to general price developments in the two markets as measured by indices.

Geographic clustering of economic activity: The case of prominent western visual artists

This article compiles original data relating to artists’ place of birth and work migration patterns using various art history dictionaries. The broad historic pattern, from the 13th to the 20th century, of the birth locations of prominent artists is examined, followed by a detailed study of the work migration patterns of prominent artists in two important situations, namely Renaissance Italy and France in part of the 19th century. The evidence indicates a marked clustering of activity of prominent artists, both arising from birth location and migration patterns. Some possible explanations for the observed patterns are briefly outlined.