Predicting publication long-term impact through a combination of early citations and journal impact factor

The ability to predict the long-term impact of a scientific article soon after its publication is of great value towards accurate assessment of research performance. In this work we test the hypothesis that good predictions of long-term citation counts can be obtained through a combination of a publication's early citations and the impact factor of the hosting journal. The test is performed on a corpus of 123,128 WoS publications authored by Italian scientists, using linear regression models. The average accuracy of the prediction is good for citation time windows above two years, decreases for lowly-cited publications, and varies across disciplines. As expected, the role of the impact factor in the combination becomes negligible after only two years from publication.     

Who benefits from a country’s scientific research?

When a publication is cited it generates a benefit. Through the country affiliations of the citing authors, it is possible to work upwards, tracing the countries that benefit from results produced in a national research system. In this work we take the knowledge flow from Italy as an example. We develop a methodology for examination of how the knowledge flows vary across fields, in each beneficiary country. We also measure the field comparative advantage of countries in benefiting from Italian research. The results from this method can inform bilateral research collaboration policies.     

Situational specificity makes the difference in assessment of youth behavior disorders

In this article we examine the ability of contextual information to enhance assessment of behavior problems in schools. Capitalizing on the multisituational structure of the Adjustment Scales for Children and Adolescents, exploratory and confirmatory analyses with a representative national sample (N = 1,400, ages 5–17 years) revealed three unique and reliable behavioral situtypes (problems in Peer Contexts, Academic Contexts, and Teacher Contexts). The situtypes were found internally consistent and structurally generalizable across age, sex, and ethnicity. Multiple logistic and discriminant analyses confirmed the ability of the situtypes to identify accurately those youth independently diagnosed as emotionally disturbed, as well as distinguish those diagnosed as learning disabled. Information gleaned from the situtypes was substantially better able than conventional psychopathology syndromes (attention‐deficit hyperactivity, oppositional defiance, etc.) to forecast later academic achievement. Implications for informing motivation and intervention are discussed. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Psychol Schs 42: 121–136, 2005.     

University-industry research collaboration: a model to assess university capability

Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The field of observation is made of the census of 2001–2003 scientific articles in the hard sciences, co-authored by universities and private enterprises located in Italy. The analysis shows that research quality of universities has an impact higher than geographic distance on the capability for collaborating with industry. The model proposed and the measures that descend from it are suited for use at various levels of administration, to assist in realizing the “third role” of universities: the contribution to socio-economic development through public to private technology transfer.