Persistent Focal Behavior and Physical Activity Performance

This article examines the proclivity and performance attributes of focal students across time and activities using data from 9,345 students. Three systematic focal behavior partitions are examined: Across activities, across time, and across activities and time. A student’s performance is focal if it ends in 0 or 5 for push-ups and 0 for curl-ups. Chi-square tests confirm that individual focal outcomes and systematic focal outcomes occur more frequently than random processes would suggest. In each instance, the only cell that is less populated than random processes would suggest is the one that exhibits no systematic focal behavior and the cell that exhibits the greatest deviation from expected is the full focal cell. Focal students outperform their peers on three activities at two assessments. Students with two-systematically focal outcomes have superior performance to students with no systematic focal outcomes but inferior performance to those with three or four focal outcomes.     

Growth influences biomechanical profile of talented swimmers during the summer break

This study aimed to analyse the effect of growth during a summer break on biomechanical profile of talented swimmers. Twenty-five young swimmers (12 boys and 13 girls) undertook several anthropometric and biomechanical tests at the end of the 2011–2012 season (pre-test) and 10 weeks later at the beginning of the 2012–2013 season (post-test). Height, arm span, hand surface area, and foot surface area were collected as anthropometric parameters, while stroke frequency, stroke length, stroke index, propelling efficiency, active drag, and active drag coefficient were considered as biomechanical variables. The mean swimming velocity during an all-out 25 m front crawl effort was used as the performance outcome. After the 10-week break, the swimmers were taller with an increased arm span, hand, and foot areas. Increases in stroke length, stroke index, propelling efficiency, and performance were also observed. Conversely, the stroke frequency, active drag, and drag coefficient remained unchanged. When controlling the effect of growth, no significant variation was determined on the biomechanical variables. The performance presented high associations with biomechanical and anthropometric parameters at pre-test and post-test, respectively. The results show that young talented swimmers still present biomechanical improvements after a 10-week break, which are mainly explained by their normal growth.     

A two-stage proxy variable approach to estimating movie box office receipts

This paper advances the ongoing discussion of methods for predicting movie box office revenues with two contributions to the methodology and an out-of-sample test of the model. The first innovation is the development of a two-stage model using publicly available pre-release indicators to predict (1) initial week and (2) subsequent run box office revenues. To incorporate the experience-good nature of movies, the second stage is estimated by incorporating a proxy variable for box office success during the first week relative to predicted first week success. The second contribution is an empirical test of De Vany and Walls’ (J Econ Dyn Control 28:1035–1057, 2004) finding that the distribution of movie revenues has “heavy tails” and follows a non-Gaussian stable distribution with infinite variance. We estimate the two-stage model of a movie’s box office success on all general release movies in 1 year with both the Gaussian and stable distribution with heavy tails and infinite variance and find no evidence for the stable distribution in either stage of the estimation. This two-stage model is validated by comparing all general release movies in 3 future years (out-of-sample data) to the model’s predictions.