A two-stage proxy variable approach to estimating movie box office receipts

This paper advances the ongoing discussion of methods for predicting movie box office revenues with two contributions to the methodology and an out-of-sample test of the model. The first innovation is the development of a two-stage model using publicly available pre-release indicators to predict (1) initial week and (2) subsequent run box office revenues. To incorporate the experience-good nature of movies, the second stage is estimated by incorporating a proxy variable for box office success during the first week relative to predicted first week success. The second contribution is an empirical test of De Vany and Walls’ (J Econ Dyn Control 28:1035–1057, 2004) finding that the distribution of movie revenues has “heavy tails” and follows a non-Gaussian stable distribution with infinite variance. We estimate the two-stage model of a movie’s box office success on all general release movies in 1 year with both the Gaussian and stable distribution with heavy tails and infinite variance and find no evidence for the stable distribution in either stage of the estimation. This two-stage model is validated by comparing all general release movies in 3 future years (out-of-sample data) to the model’s predictions.     

How accurate can A Level English Literature marking be?

This article considers in a wide perspective the crisis in the assessment of examinations in A‐level English Literature and current attempts to address the problems. Examining the implications of a survey of recent reports initiated by the regulator, it argues that trying to ensure reliability merely through technological advances and changes in examining practice obscures the need for English teachers’ communal understanding of academic standards to be developed through their professional experience. It proposes ways in which this should be achieved, for example by developing current and potential professional networks and communities of practice.     

Influence of conspecific and predatory Stressors and their associated odors on defensive burying and freezing responses

In Experiment 1, male rats were exposed to either aggressive (i.e., alpha) or nonaggressive conspecific colonies and tested 24 h later, with or without alpha odors, for freezing behavior and burying of a wall prod that had been the source of a brief electric shock. The results indicated that prior defeat experience and the presence of alpha odors alone during testing had no significant effects, but the combination of prior defeat and alpha-odor testing significantly decreased burying and increased freezing behavior. In Experiment 2, we examined the effects of noncontact exposure to a cat, as a predatory Stressor, during subsequent prod-shock tests involving the presence or absence of cat odors. Exposure to a cat failed to disrupt later prod burying and did not produce freezing. However, the presence of cat odors during testing significantly reduced the amount of defensive burying,without resulting in an increment in freezing. In Experiment 3, rats were given 1, 5, or 30 inescapable preshocks in the presence of either cat odors or a hedonically neutral citronella odor and were tested 24 h later for prod burying and freezing with or without these odors. Both the cat and the citronella odors resulted in a significant reduction in burying and an increase in freezing for rats given 5 and 30 preshocks and tested in the presence of these respective conditioned odors. For the groups that were given 5 preshocks, preshock and later testing in the presence of cat odors resulted in significantly less prod burying and more freezing than for rats that were preshocked and tested in the presence of citronella. The findings of these three ethoexperimental studies are discussed in terms of the learned-helplessness theory, the stress-coping-fear-defense (SCFD) theory, and the concept of selective CS-US associability.     

Crisis communication in racial issues

On November 17, 1998, three individuals were detained by local police in Lubbock, Texas for attempting a pigeon drop scam in a Wal Mart parking lot. The three suspects were the head coach, an assistant coach, and the husband of the head coach from the visiting Hampton University women's basketball team. The three were eventually proven innocent and released, but not before a crisis involving racial overtones had been initiated. The case study explores the crisis management responses of Texas Tech University and Lubbock, Texas and the implications for the study of crises involving race.     

A collaborative network for first responders: Lessons from the CapWIN case

It is increasingly important for government agencies to collaborate across jurisdictional and functional boundaries. Interorganizational systems supporting interagency collaboration must accommodate a wide range of factors from the external environment and participating organizations as part of their design and operation. This paper presents the findings from a case study of CapWIN, a collaborative network created to enable first responders to share information across jurisdictional and functional boundaries as they work together during emergencies and other critical events. The study examines how aspects of the external environment and the agency context impeded or facilitated the CapWIN collaborative network and the interorganizational system (IOS) that supports it. We identify factors affecting information sharing and collaborative processes, and describe how these factors interact to enable and constrain an IOS. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research on the interplay of environmental, organizational, and technical aspects of interagency collaboration networks as they evolve over time.     

Preschoolers modulate contrastive inferences during online language comprehension

This study examined 4- and 5-year-olds' incremental interpretation of size adjectives, focusing on whether contrastive inferences are modulated by speaker behavior. Children (N = 120, 59 females, mostly White, tested between July, 2018 and August, 2019) encountered either a conventional or unconventional speaker who labeled objects in a correspondingly typical or atypical way. Critical utterances contained size adjectives (e.g., “Look at the big duck”). With conventional speakers, gaze measures indicated that children rapidly used the adjective to differentiate members of a contrasting pair, indicating that even 4-year-olds derive contrastive inferences. With unconventional speakers, contrastive inferences were delayed in processing. The findings demonstrate that preschoolers adjust their use of pragmatic cues when presented with evidence disconfirming their default assumptions about a speaker.     

The uses and abuses of boredom in the classroom

Although the educational and psychological hazards of boredom are well documented, an increasing number of researchers have argued that boredom may be a helpful, rather than harmful, emotion for the growing individual. In this paper, we engage with this re-conception of boredom and explore its implications for contemporary education: Can boredom enhance student learning, or support certain forms of it? Can it be put to use in the classroom? What are the risks involved? In addressing these questions, we show that boredom can fulfil several important psychological functions under certain special conditions. At the same time, we argue that careful attention to the moral psychology of boredom reveals that it has significant disadvantages for helping students to develop a meaningful and fulfilling relationship to subject matter in the classroom. Against the backdrop of this analysis, we discuss the concept and experience of aspiration as a potential way of tempering and eventually obviating the psychological pitfalls of boredom. In the final section, we draw out several principles of an aspirational approach to grappling with boredom in education.