Prediction as an Impediment to Preparedness: Lessons from the US Hurricane and Earthquake Research Enterprises

No matter one’s wealth or social position, all are subject to the threats of natural hazards. Be it fire, flood, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, or drought, the reality of hazard risk is universal. In response, governments, non-profits, and the private sector all support research to study hazards. Each has a common end in mind: to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities. While this end goal is shared across hazards, the conception of how to get there can diverge considerably. The earthquake and hurricane research endeavors in the US provide an illustrative contrast. The earthquake community sets out to increase resilience through a research process that simultaneously promotes both high quality and usable – preparedness-focused - science. In order to do so, the logic suggests that research must be collaborative, responsive, and transparent. Hurricane research, by contrast, largely promotes high quality science – predictions - alone, and presumes that usability should flow from there. This process is not collaborative, responsive, or transparent. Experience suggests, however, that the latter model – hurricane research - does not prepare communities or decision makers to use the high quality science it has produced when a storm does hit. The predictions are good, but they are not used effectively. Earthquake research, on the other hand, is developed through a collaborative process that equips decision makers to know and use hazards research knowledge as soon as an earthquake hits. The contrast between the two fields suggests that earthquake research is more likely to meet the end goal of resilience than is hurricane research, and thus that communities might be more resilient to hurricanes were the model by which research is funded and conducted to change. The earthquake research experience can provide lessons for this shift. This paper employs the Public Value Mapping (PVM) framework to explore these two divergent public value logics, their end results, and opportunities for improvement.     

Influence of upright versus time trial cycling position on determination of critical power and W′ in trained cyclists

Body position is known to alter power production and affect cycling performance. The aim of this study was to compare mechanical power output in two riding positions, and to calculate the effects on critical power (CP) and W′ estimates. Seven trained cyclists completed three peak power output efforts and three fixed-duration trial (3-, 5- and 12-min) riding with their hands on the brake lever hoods (BLH), or in a time trial position (TTP). A repeated-measures analysis of variance showed that mean power output during the 5-min trial was significantly different between BLH and TTP positions, resulting in a significantly lower estimate of CP, but not W′, for the TTP trial. In addition, TTP decreased the performance during each trial and increased the percentage difference between BLH and TTP with greater trial duration. There were no differences in pedal cadence or heart rate during the 3-min trial; however, TTP results for the 12-min trial showed a significant fall in pedal cadence and a significant rise in heart rate. The findings suggest that cycling position affects power output and influences consequent CP values. Therefore, cyclists and coaches should consider the cycling position used when calculating CP.     

Coordination variability and skill development in expert triple jumpers

The aim of this study was to examine the influence of skill of expert triple jumpers on the coordination variability of lower extremity intra-limb couplings. In contrast to the traditional motor learning perspective, we hypothesized that as skill and thus performance increases, movement coordination variability will also increase. Three-dimensional kinematic and ground reaction force data were collected during the hop-step transition phase of the triple jump. Relative motion plots and a modified vector coding technique were used to quantify the coordination variability across the trials. The results were consistent with a U-shaped curve, representing coordination variability, as skill increases. The high coordination variability in less skilled athletes is present while the appropriate characteristics defining the movement coordination patterns are acquired. This coordination variability may not be beneficial to performance. As the refinement of these characteristics is achieved, coordination variability decreases, resulting in a more consistent or regulated performance. In the final stages of developing a skilled performance, a functional variability is accessed that brings flexibility to the system allowing it to cope with perturbations. This study highlights the need to address the learning effect when analysing coordination variability from a dynamical systems perspective.     

The effects of synchronous music on 400-m sprint performance

The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of motivating and oudeterous (neither motivating nor demotivating) synchronous music on 400-m sprint performance while controlling for the potential confound of pre-performance mood. A panel of volunteer Caucasian males (n = 20; mean age = 20.5 years, s = 1.2) rated the motivational qualities of 32 musical selections using the Brunel Music Rating Inventory-2. An experimental group of volunteer Caucasian males (n = 36; mean age = 20.4 years, s = 1.4) completed three 400-m time trials under conditions of motivational music, oudeterous music, and a no-music control. Pre-performance mood was assessed using the Brunel University Mood Scale (BRUMS). A series of repeated-measures analyses of variance with Bonferroni adjustment revealed no differences in the BRUMS subscales. A repeated-measures analysis of variance on the 400-m times showed a significant effect (F1.24, 42.19 = 10.54, P < 0.001, eta 2 = 0.24) and follow-up pair wise comparisons revealed differences between the synchronous music conditions and the control condition. This finding supported the first research hypothesis, that synchronous music would result in better performance than a no-music control, but not the second hypothesis, that performance in the motivational synchronous music condition would be better than that in the oudeterous condition. It appears that synchronous music can be applied to anaerobic endurance performance among non-elite sports persons with a considerable positive effect.     

Neoliberalism,global poverty policy and early childhood education and care: a critique of local uptake in England

The global rise of a neoliberal ‘new politics of parenting’ discursively constructs parents in poverty as the reason for, and remedy to, child poverty. This allows for Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) to become a key policy lever by using human technologies to intervene in and regulate the lives of parents and children in poverty. The article explores the uptake of this policy locally through interviews with 30 ECEC practitioners in three locations across England. The interviews suggested that the neoliberal discursive formation of child poverty as a problem of the poor themselves had symbolic power and was a view shared by most of the interviewees. This appeared to restrict their thinking and action, shaping a limited engagement with parents in poverty. Delivering curricular requirements was seen to further delimit practitioners’ practices with children in poverty by reducing their poverty sensitivity. Although this is a small study, its findings may be of value in questioning neoliberal logics, and their implications are considered critically.     

THE BULLYING DYNAMIC: PREVALENCE OF INVOLVEMENT AMONG A LARGE‐SCALE SAMPLE OF MIDDLE AND HIGH SCHOOL YOUTH WITH AND WITHOUT DISABILITIES

Bullying has been the topic of much debate and empirical investigations over the past decade. Contemporary literature contends that students with disabilities may be overrepresented within the bullying dynamic as both perpetrators and victims. Unfortunately, prevalence rates associated with the representation of students with disabilities is limited due to measurement, disability status identification, and definition issues. The present study attempted to address these issues by assessing the prevalence rates of specific subgroups of students with disabilities in a large‐scale cross‐sectional study with 13,325 students without disabilities and 1,183 students with disabilities in Grades 6 through 12. Results suggest that overall, students with disabilities reported proportionally higher rates of bullying, fighting, relational aggression, victimization, online victimization, and relational victimization than did their peers without disabilities. These findings suggest that schools must begin to establish targeted interventions to support skill development based on characteristics associated with specific disability identification.     

Suprasegmental Phonology Development and Reading Acquisition: A Longitudinal Study

Previous studies implicate suprasegmental phonology in reading acquisition. However, little is known about how suprasegmental sensitivity develops or how it contributes to reading. Here, 130 Spanish primary-school children participated in this 2-year longitudinal study. Nonlinguistic rhythm, lexical-stress sensitivity and metrical-stress sensitivity, along with phonological awareness, vocabulary, nonverbal intelligence, and reading aloud, were assessed on five occasions. Results suggest that prosody abilities have different developmental trajectories and that prosody explains unique variance in reading beyond that explained by other factors. There was some evidence that the contribution of each prosody skill occurred at different phases in reading development. Nonlinguistic rhythm, lexical-stress sensitivity, and metrical-stress sensitivity assessed at the end of kindergarten, the start of Grade 1, and the end of Grade 1, respectively, predicted reading performance 6 months later. Nevertheless, sample size and reliability temper the conclusions that can be made. The implications of prosody skills for literacy development are discussed.     

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on t Statistics

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) proc power procedure to determine an appropriate sample size and achieve sufficient power for a specified confidence interval. Two examples in sport and exercise science are used to illustrate sample size determination for confidence intervals in the dependent and independent t tests. The relevant SAS code and output are provided with detailed annotations. As the use of confidence intervals becomes a more integral part of studies in sport and exercise science, the reporting and analysis of their power should be considered much like that of hypothesis tests.