Inference Based on the Best-Fitting Model Can Contribute to the Replication Crisis: Assessing Model Selection Uncertainty Using a Bootstrap Approach

Inferences and conclusions drawn from model fitting analyses are commonly based on a single “best fitting” model. If model selection and inference are carried out using the same data model selection, uncertainty is ignored. We illustrate the Type I error inflation that can result from using the same data for model selection and inference, and we then propose a simple bootstrap-based approach to quantify model selection uncertainty in terms of model selection rates. A selection rate can be interpreted as an estimate of the replication probability of a fitted model. The benefits of bootstrapping model selection uncertainty are demonstrated in growth mixture analyses of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, and a 2-group measurement invariance analysis of the Holzinger–Swineford data.     

Sexual reconviction rates in the United Kingdom and actuarial risk estimates

OBJECTIVE: Assessing the risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators of children is highly relevant and important to professionals involved in child protection. Recent progress in assessing risk in sexual offenders has established the validity of actuarial measures, although there continues to be some debate about the application of these instruments. This paper summarizes the debate between clinical and actuarial approaches and reviews the "base rate" for United Kingdom sexual offense reconviction. METHOD: A review of the literature revealed 16 UK sexual reconviction studies, 8 using incarcerated samples (N=5,915) and 8 using non-incarcerated samples (N=1,274). UK estimates of sexual reconviction rates are compared with European and North American studies. RESULTS: The mean sexual reconviction rates for the incarcerated sample at 2 years (6.0%), 4 years (7.8%) and 6 years or more (19.5%) were higher than that of the comparative non-incarcerated sample at 2 years (5.7%), up to 4 years (5.9%), and 6 years or more (15.5%). The overall sexual reconviction rate for both samples combined was 5.8% at 2 years, and 17.5% at 6 years or more. CONCLUSIONS: The sexual reconviction rate for incarcerated sexual offenders is higher than that of non-incarcerated sexual offenders. The UK sexual reconviction rates were comparable with European and North American studies.     

Expectations versus reality: the case of Liberal Studies in Hong Kong’s new senior secondary reforms

This article reports the findings of a five-year longitudinal study investigating the introduction of Liberal Studies in the context of Hong Kong’s new senior secondary educational reforms. The aim of this empirical research, which adopted diachronic analysis to allow comparisons over time, was to compare teachers’ and students’ perceptions of the Liberal Studies curriculum before and after its introduction. Methodologically speaking, the study was informed by documentary inquiry, with approximately 560 newspaper articles and government reports collected to identify the issues surrounding the curriculum debate. Questionnaire-based surveys conducted in the pre- and post-reform periods revealed a sharp contrast between expectations and reality for both participant groups following the curriculum’s introduction. Whilst the students demonstrated favourable attitudes towards Liberal Studies before studying the subject, a certain degree of disappointment was expressed after the new curriculum came into effect. In follow-up interviews with teachers, they expressed a lack of confidence in teaching such a multi-disciplinary subject and criticised the overly ambitious nature of the curriculum. Liberal Studies, as currently taught, runs the risk of falling out of favour with Hong Kong secondary school teachers, and the question of whether it will play an increasingly important role in promoting patriotic education after the demise of Moral and National Education is deserving of research attention.     

A Journey towards Collaborative Culture Development: How to Be Weightless Despite Academic Gravity

In science, gravity refers to the universal force of attraction acting on and between all matter. No one on earth can escape the force of gravity. In a similar vein, the stringent requirements of publications, research grants, and research output in the academic world can be metaphorically described as “academic gravity,” the force of which pushes university academics to struggle and strive in pursuit of excellence just to survive in the changing landscape of higher education governed by neo-liberalism and managerialism. This article describes the journey of a junior academic staff member in an Asian university as he coped with various difficulties in establishing a collaborative culture in his department (i.e., the Faculty of Education). Working with a senior colleague (Sunshine-mother hereafter) in the same department, Author 1 began to recognize the importance of collegial collaboration in teacher education generally and in his academic life specifically. However, although he tried his utmost to develop a culture of collaboration amongst his colleagues, he struggled to cope with the tension and stress exerted by academic gravity (i.e., publication production and the pursuit of tenure). Drawing on data collected from a teaching development project and adopting a reflective autobiographic approach, this article delineates the collaborative relationship between Author 1 and Sunshine-mother, exemplifying the important roles that coaching and a free rein (i.e., weightlessness) play in the development of junior teacher-educators under the strong pressure of academic gravity.     

Behavior problems of children as perceived by teachers,mental health professionals,and children

The objective of this study was to examine current teacher and mental health professional ratings regarding the relative seriousness of 50 specific children's behavior problems and to compare the results to those found by Wickman (1928). Wickman's questionnaire and procedures were replicated to insure comparability. A second objective was to extend Wickman's work so that children's ratings of their own behavior problems may be ascertained. An increase in the similarity between teachers' and mental health professionals' judgements concerning the seriousness of specific children's behavior problems was found. These findings were attributable to a more pragmatic approach taken by mental health professionals. A very high agreement on the seriousness of specific behavior problem ratings was demonstrated by children and teachers. This similarity may be the result of proximity of effects.