Chaos theory, informational needs, and natural disasters

This study applies chaos theory to a system-wide analysis of crisis communication in a natural disaster. Specifically, we analyze crisis communication during the 1997 Red River Valley flood in Minnesota and North Dakota. This flood, among the worst in modern American history, consumed entire metropolitan areas, displacing thousands of people. The conditions and decisions leading to the disaster, and the subsequent reactions are retraced. Communication related to river crest predictions (fractals), the shock at the magnitude of the crisis (cosmology episode), novel forms of reorganizing (self-organization), and agencies that aided in establishing a renewed order (strange attractors) are evaluated. Ultimately, we argue that preexisting sensemaking structures favoring rationalized, traditional views of a complex system led officials to make inappropriately unequivocal predictions and ultimately diminished the effectiveness of the region's crisis communication and planning.     

The reliability of distance run tests for children in grades K-4.

The purpose of this study was to determine test-retest reliability for the 1-mile, 3/4-mile, and 1/2-mile distance run/alk tests for children in Grades K-4. Fifty-one intact physical education classes were randomly assigned to one of the three distance run conditions. A total of 1,229 (621 boys, 608 girls) completed the test-retests in the fall (October), with 1,050 of these students (543 boys, 507 girls) repeating the tests in the spring (May). Results indicated that the 1-mile run/walk distance, as recommended for young children in most national test batteries, has acceptable intraclass reliability (.83 less than R less than .90) for both boys and girls in Grades 3 and 4, has minimal (fall) to acceptable (spring) reliability for Grade 2 students (.70 less than R less than .83), but is not reliable for children in Grades K and 1 (.34 less than R less than .56). The 1/2 mile was the only distance meeting minimal reliability standards for boys and girls in Grades K and 1 (.73 less than R less than .82). Results also indicated that reliability estimates remained fairly stable across gender and age groups from the fall to spring testing periods, with the exception of the noticeably improved values for Grade 2 students on the 1-mile run/walk test. Criterion-referenced reliability (P, percent agreement) was also estimated relative to Physical Best and Fitnessgram run/walk standards. Reliability coefficients for all age group standards were acceptable to high (.70 less than P less than .95), except for Fitnessgram standards for 5-year-old girls on the 1-mile test for both fall and spring and for 6-year-old boys and girls on the 1-mile test administered in the spring.     

CONCERN FOR THE ENVIRONMENT: A CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Data from the International Social Survey Program indicate considerablevariation in the desire of respondents for increased spendingon the environment in Australia, Austria, Great Britain, theUnited States, and West Germany. This paper explores this variationwith the following objectives: (1) to determine the extent towhich the social bases of environmental concern are consistentacross nations; (2) to determine how the issue of the environmenthas been politicized in the five industrialized nations, focusingon the association of Old Leftist concerns and environmentalconcern; and (3) to determine the extent to which the socialbases of environmental concern can explain the cross-nationalvariation. The study usesa regression analysis, testing variablesrepresenting the social bases of environmental concern frompast research in the United States, a scale representing commitmentto the platform of the Old Left, and dummy variables for eachcountry. The results show that the social bases of environmentalconcern are the same in the five countries studied, includinga consistent positive association of Old Leftism with environmentalconcern. However, substantial variation between countries inthe overall level of concern remains. Potential sources of theremaining variation are examined.