藏北羌塘高原气候变化的时空格局

藏北的羌塘高原作为青藏高原的主体和核心,是对全球变化反应最敏感的区域之一。本文通过统计藏北高原仅有的8个气象站50年来温度、降水等资料,计算分析了PER、RDI,运用植被-气候综合模型计算分析了NPP的变化量,探讨了藏北气候空间格局和随时间变化的规律。结果表明：藏北东部由南向北地势升高,温度和降水呈减少趋势,温度可能是限制藏北东部生产力的主要因子;藏北地区由东向西,降水量迅速减少,PER和RDI增加,气候渐趋干旱;其它气象因子变化复杂,与地形和植被等多种因素有关。1955年～2004年整个藏北地区温度增加趋势明显,平均增温幅度为1.4℃;降水量东部、中部增加75～115mm,西部无明显变化;>0℃日数增加11～20天;PER和RDI西部增加,中部、东部无明显变化;1980年以来,水汽压普遍增加,云量和风速均呈减少趋势。藏北地区升温主要发生在秋、冬季,增温幅度分别为1.6℃、1.8℃,春、夏季温度增幅为1.25℃、0.8℃。降水增加以春、夏、秋季为主,春夏秋冬增量分别为22mm、20mm、20mm、6.5mm。气候变化复杂,NPP整体上呈增加趋势,但空间格局上有差异,20世纪80年代以来,东部NPP增加,西部NPP减少,气候因素仍然是藏北西部草地退化的直接威胁。     

以"三个代表"重要思想为指导,切实加强乡镇干部队伍作风建设

乡镇干部的作风是目前讨论的热点和焦点问题之一。乡镇干部的作风也确实存在不少问题,引起了人民群众的极大愤慨和强烈不满,长此下去,必将影响甚至阻碍农村经济、文化建设的健康发展,并最终危及到农村发展、改革和稳定的大局。在十六大精神的指引下,从教育和制度两个方面人手,将乡镇干部的作风建设抓好、抓实,使乡镇干部从思想作风、学风、工作作风、领导作风和生活作风等方面都有一个大的改进和转变,以适应新时期、新形势和新任务的要求,促进农村经济健康发展和社会的全面进步。     

多种结构形式的统一—如东县中学“科技楼”的主体结构设计试析

通过如东县中学“科技楼”的主体结构设计,探讨当代现代重点中学办学环节中硬件设施应具备的结构设计理念和设计方法,力图达到多种结构形式及技术与经济的完美统一。     

论课堂的生态本质、特征及功能

把生态学原理和方法运用到教学研究中,对构建真实的课堂,而不是一个经过筛选的虚假的环境,具有重要的方法论意义。课堂是一个生态系统,它由教师、学生、教学事件和环境等组成,与自然生态相比,课堂是一种特殊的生态。课堂生态主体与课堂生态环境、课堂生态主体与课堂生态主体之间发生着各种各样的联系,使课堂形成一个有机的生态整体。生态化的课堂是充满着生机与活力的课堂,这样的课堂具有整体性、协变性和共生性等基本特征,发挥着滋养、环境参照、动力促进和制度规范等生态功能。     

Measurement and analysis of soil nitrogen and organic matter content using near-infrared spectroscopy techniques

Near infrared reflectance （N1R） spectroscopy is as a rapid, convenient and simple nondestructive technique useful for quantifying several soil properties. This method was used to estimate nitrogen （N） and organic matter （OM） content in a soil of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou County. A total of 125 soil samples were taken from the field. Ninety-five samples spectra were used during the calibration and cross validation stage. Thirty samples spectra were used to predict N and OM concentration. NIR spectra of these samples were correlated using partial least square regression. The regression coefficients between measured and predicted values of N and OM was 0.92 and 0.93, and SEP （standard error of prediction） were 3.28 and 0.06, respectively, which showed that NIR method had potential to accurately predict these constituents in this soil. The results showed that NIR spectroscopy could be a good tool for precision farming application.     

江苏省高等教育对经济增长贡献率的估算及分析

采用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数构造的模型,测算江苏省教育通过提高劳动者素质对经济增长的贡献率。结果表明,江苏省教育对经济发展有良好的促进作用,但是高等教育对经济增长的贡献率较低,江苏省仍应重视和处理好高等教育发展与经济增长的关系。     

Youth on the street: Abuse and neglect in the eighties

This paper discusses the findings of a study of runaways and homeless youth who were interviewed on the street the last week of every month on five week nights from late afternoon until 2 a.m. over a period of one year. The data derived from 489 interviews provided some interesting insights. Two distinct groups emerged from the analysis, generating a tentative hypothesis that the true "runners" tend to leave their homes with the intention of not returning and thus their runs are extended; the second group, designated "in and outers," use the run as a temporary coping mechanism. Their runs tend to be impulsive and of short duration. The study found that runaways (in particular the runners) are at great risk of being drawn into illegal activities. Major factors affecting this risk are distance from home and length of time on the run. A significant proportion of the youth interviewed had run from substitute care arrangements, and a disturbing implication emerging from the research is that adolescents in our society suffer from systemic abuse and neglect. One outcome of this piece of research was the opening of a safe house for early runners in January 1987. The operation of the house includes careful compilation of data to further advance understanding of the runaway population and its needs.     

Resilience in child maltreatment victims: a conceptual exploration

While many child maltreatment victims suffer serious negative emotional sequelae, others do surprisingly well. Resilience in children is a relative concept which can change over time and is affected by environment and genetics. Resilience is fostered by protective factors which ameliorate or alter a child's response to the hazards of maltreatment that usually predispose to maladaptive outcome. Personal characteristics or skills that may foster resilience include (1) rapid responsivity to danger; (2) precocious maturity; (3) dissociation of affect; (4) information seeking; (5) formation and utilization of relationships for survival; (6) positive projective anticipation; (7) decisive risk taking; (8) the conviction of being loved; (9) idealization of an aggressor's competence; (10) cognitive restructuring of painful experiences; (11) altruism; and (12) optimism and hope. There are also generic life circumstances, such as having access to good health, educational, and social welfare services, that foster resilience in children regardless of the specific nature of the stressor. Additionally, there may be abuse-specific protective factors in the environment. Examples might include the quick and full acknowledgment of an offender regarding abuse, or timeliness and permanence of legal actions affecting a child's custody. The life stories of three well-known survivors of various forms of child maltreatment illustrate how protective factors contribute to resilience. A caution is noted regarding how personal characteristics developed for survival may become maladaptive if overused and/or not given up when the stressor no longer exists. Characterological problems are most likely to develop when a child's life circumstances fail to change and the environment never becomes secure.     

焉耆盆地绿洲灌区生态安全下的地下水埋深合理界定

在西北干旱地区,地下水埋深与生态环境的关系十分密切。焉耆盆地是新疆重要的绿洲农业区,但该区生态环境脆弱,生态环境对地下水的依赖作用十分显著,同时该区又担负着向塔里木河下游输水的重任,如何实现该地区地下资源可持续开发模式,是一个急需探讨的现实问题。本文基于大量的野外调查和综合分析的基础上,通过对焉耆盆地的地下水埋深与土壤盐碱化、植被生长与潜水蒸发的相互关系的研究,从确保绿洲灌区生态安全角度提出了地下水生态埋深的概念,并阐述了其内涵,确定绿洲灌区适宜生态埋深为3.0～4.0m,即适合林地生长的适宜深度与极限潜水蒸发深度的区间。地下水生态埋深的确定,对于估算生态用水、防治土地盐渍化和沙漠化提供了科学依据,也为焉耆盆地地下水合理开采与水盐调控提供理论支撑。     

基于LMDI指数分解的中国石油消费影响因素分析

石油消费是能源消费的重要组成部分。为全面分析我国石油消费量变化情况及其影响因素,本文利用LMDI指数分解法将影响石油消费增长的因素分解为化石能耗结构效应、非清洁能耗效应、能源强度效应和经济规模效应四个部分。分解结果表明,经济规模效应是造成我国石油消费增长的主要原因;除个别年份或省区外,我国能源强度逐年降低,清洁能源消费比例稳步增长,能源结构逐步改善,我国石油供需矛盾趋于缓和。