我国城镇居民消费结构支出与体育用品制造业产出关系的实证 研究

运用因子分析、聚类分析、比较分析及多元回归分析等方法,对我国城镇居民消费结构支出与体育用品制造业产出的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:城镇居民消费结构支出综合评价得分靠前的分别是上海、广东、北京、浙江和天津,体育用品制造业产出综合评价得分领先的依次为广东、上海、浙江、江苏和福建,说明城镇居民消费结构支出与体育用品制造业产出状况存在明显的区域差异性,总体表现为东部显著优于中西部.城镇居民消费支出水平越高,消费结构越合理,其对推动体育用品制造业的发展将产生积极作用,而体育用品制造业的发展壮大也将不断升级优化城镇居民的消费结构支出.食品、衣着、交通和通信、教育文化娱乐服务消费支出对体育用品制造业的发展影响非常显著,但家庭设备用品及服务、医疗保健、居住、杂项商品和服务消费支出对其发展的影响则较微弱.     

基于GARCH模型的中体产业股票价格波动性实证研究

以1998年3月-2007年12月中体产业股份有限公司股票的2 535个日收盘价格指数为研究样本,运用GARCH模型对中体产业股票价格的波动性进行了实证研究,结果表明,中体产业股票价格的时间序列存在明显的非线性特征,1998年3月-2007年12月间出现两次大幅度的波动.股价收益率具有显著的波动集聚性,且表现出"尖峰、厚尾、非正态"的特征,在10%、5%、1%临界值水平下均存在显著的平稳性.GARCH(1,1)模型可较好拟合中体产业股票价格的波动变异性.股价收益率的波动具有较强的波动集聚性和持续性,且收益率当期方差冲击的79.86%在下期仍存在.从该模型的条件异方差看出中体产业股票价格的波动幅度较大,波动集聚现象较为持久.     

中国体育用品制造业月度利润额的季节调整实证研究

首先对中国体育用品制造业月度利润额季节调整的原因、季节调整方法的发展过程及应用状况进行了说明,引用国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO／SEATS季节调整方法对国内体育用品制造业月度利润额进行季节调整与分析。结果表明,1999-2007年我国体育用品制造业月度利润额存在着有规律的季节性变化,体育用品制造业月度利润额的时间序列是稳定向上的,且该时间序列的季节性波幅显示出与趋势成比例的特征。体育用品制造业月度利润额在0．1％显著性水平下存在稳定的季节性,但在5％显著性水平下不存在年度间变动的季节性。交易日对体育用品制造业月度利润额不构成显著影响,而节假日因素（即春节）却是影响体育用品制造业月度利润额的重要原因。体育用品制造业月度利润额的最终季节调整序列的最终趋势成分占据着重要地位,而X-12-ARIMA与TRMAO／SEATS两种程序调整所得的最终季节调整序列的显著性差异来自于最终季节成分和最终不规则成分。最后提出我国体育经济时间序列季节调整的一些启示。     

中国体育用品制造业产业集聚程度变动趋势的定量研究

基于市场行业集中度指标(CRn)与产业空间集聚指数(β),对中国7大类体育用品制造行业2002-2007年的产业集聚水平进行测定及动态分析.结果表明:2002-2007年我国7大类体育用品制造行业的产品销售收入排名前6位的省(市)主要是广东、江苏、山东、浙江、福建和上海,该6个地区均隶属东部,中、两部则榜上无名,说明中国体育用品制造业产业集聚程度的区域差异非常明显.2002-2007年我国体育用品制造业、球类制造业、训练健身器材制造业、运动防护用具制造业、文教体育用品制造业与其他体育用品制造业的产业空间集聚指数均呈增长趋势,而体育器材及配件制造业的产业空间集聚指数却呈下降趋势.按其增幅大小顺序依次为:运动防护用具制造业>文教体育用品制造业>球类制造业>体育用品制造业>其他体育用品制造业>训练健身器材制造业.2007年运动防护用具制造业、球类制造业和其他体育用品制造业的产业空间集聚指数分别位居前三甲(β>0.1),其余4大类体育用品制造行业也均大于0.05,产业空间集聚指数位于0.05及以下的体育用品制造行业则为无,表明我国区域体育用品制造行业的空间集聚程度已非常显著.同时,就国内7大类体育用品制造行业的产业空间集聚指数与工业生产总值展开相关分析发现,中国工业总产值和体育用品制造业空间集聚程度存在较高的正相关关系.     

Research Trends in Science Education from 2003 to 2007: A content analysis of publications in selected journals

The present study was a follow‐up to Tsai and Wen’s (2005) earlier research, in which 802 articles published in the International Journal of Science Education, Science Education, and the Journal of Research in Science Teaching from 1998 to 2002 were analysed in terms of author’s nationality, research type, and research topic. In the present study a total of 869 papers published in the three journals from 2003 to 2007 were analysed, and the results were compared with those of Tsai and Wen. Moreover, this study also identified 31 highly‐cited papers published during 1998–2002 and 20 highly‐cited papers published during 2003–2007. The results showed that authors from countries other than the four major English‐speaking countries (i.e., the USA, the UK, Australia, and Canada) published an increasing number of articles in the past decade. During these five years (2003–2007), science educators showed relatively more interest in research topics involving the context of student learning. Besides, science educators have changed some of their research interests during 1998–2007, with a shift in the research topics from student conception learning and conceptual change (1998–2002) to student learning contexts (2003–2007). Moreover, the investigation of highly‐cited papers in the past decade revealed that studies on argumentation have gained significant attention among science educators.     

Internet‐based Science Learning: A review of journal publications

Internet‐based science learning has been advocated by many science educators for more than a decade. This review examines relevant research on this topic. Sixty‐five papers are included in the review. The review consists of the following two major categories: (1) the role of demographics and learners' characteristics in Internet‐based science learning, such as demographic background, prior knowledge, and self‐efficacy; and (2) the learning outcomes derived from Internet‐based science learning, such as attitude, motivation, conceptual understanding, and conceptual change. Some important conclusions are drawn from the review. For example, Internet‐based science learning is equally favorable, or in some cases more so, to learning for female students compared to male students. The learner's control is essential for enhancing students' attitudes and motivation toward learning in Internet‐based science learning environments. Nevertheless, appropriate guidance from teachers, moderators, or the Internet‐based learning environment itself is still quite crucial in Internet‐based science learning. Recommendations for future research related to the effects of Internet‐based science learning on students' metacognitive reflections, epistemological development, and worldviews are suggested.     

Towards a Transformative Epistemology of Technology Education

Technology Education offers an authentic and invaluable range of skills, knowledge, capabilities, contexts and ways of thinking for learners in the 21^st century. However, it is recognised that it occupies a comparatively less defined and more fragile curricular position than associated, but longer established, subjects such as Mathematics and Science. While recognising that no single factor lies behind such a condition, this paper draws upon thinking in the philosophy of technology, technology education and the ontology of artefacts to argue that transformation may be considered as an epistemic source for technology in a similar way to ‘proof’ within Mathematics and ‘interpretation’ within Science. Encapsulating technology's intimate relationship with materials, it is ultimately argued that the transformation of a technical artefact from an ill‐defined into a well‐defined ontological state constitutes a prime source of technological knowledge for pupils. Moreover, it provides an alternative route into further consideration about the nature of the domain, epistemology and curricular identity of the subject.     

Computers in Language Teaching

Abstract

Many people remember their language lessons from their secondary schooldays as tedious and ineffective. Although the emphasis in language teaching has shifted from the passive skills (reading, listening) to the active skills of speaking and writing, the result after many years of hard work is often disappointing. Learning a language in a classroom environment is extremely difficult. There is no real need to speak or write. Teachers are not interested in the contents of what their students are saying or writing but in the correctness. There is not enough time for the individual student to manipulate and practise what he or she has learned. Motivation is low. Obviously, computers cannot solve these problems. However, they can be used to create a more stimulating environment in which students are given authentic tasks that require a real use of language. If computers are used for practice and drill only, we are missing out on a valuable contribution to language learning and teaching.