Indicators for national science and technology policy: how robust are composite indicators?

This article addresses a set of issues that were central to Keith Pavitt's research, that is, the construction and use of tools to measure national innovative performance and to design national policies relating to innovation. It presents an overview of the development of science and technology (S&T) indicators and their use in national policy making and provides evidence of the vulnerability of composite S&T indicators to manipulation. A brief history of the development of S&T indicators begins with the role of the United States followed by their worldwide diffusion with particular emphasis on Europe. Newer developments towards composite indicators, benchmarking and scoreboarding are discussed. To investigate the robustness of innovation scoreboards empirically, a sensitivity analysis of one selected case is presented. It is shown that composite scores and country rank positions can vary considerably depending on the selection process. Thus, the use of scoreboards leaves room for manipulation in the policymaking system. Further research is needed on alternative methods of calculation to prevent their misuse and abuse.     

The venture capital market and technological innovation

This paper was stimulated by assertions that technological innovation in the United States by new or small firms is being delayed or altogether stifled by an inadequate supply of capital for such firms. Analysis of available data on the performance and activities of public venture capital sources and information supplied by knowledgeable people in the field provided little support, on strictly economic grounds, for the argument that a major problem exists. The data, however, are extremely thin and inadequate to suport recommendations for major policy changes.     

Universal Service in a Ubiquitous Digital Network

Before there was the digital divide there was the analog divide– and universal service was the attempt to close that analogdivide. Universal service is becoming ever more complex in terms ofregulatory design as it becomes the digital divide. In order to evaluatethe promise of the next generation Internet with respect to the digitaldivide this work looks backwards as well as forwards in time. Byevaluating why previous universal service mechanisms failed andsucceeded this work identifies specific characteristics ofcommunications systems – in particular in billing and managinguncertainty – and argues that these characteristics underliesuccess or failure in terms of technological ubiquity. Developing a setof characteristics of services rather than a set of services is afundamental break with the tradition of universal service. In fact, theimplications of our proposal is that basic characteristics in theoffering of the service rather than the absolute price are critical toclose the digital divide: certainty of total charge, ability to avoiddeposits or disconnection via best effort service, and payer-basedcontrol of all charges. While all of these principles sound obvious infact none of these hold in the telephony network. Universal service hasevolved from common carriage (serve all with no discrimination) to aright to basic services (100% penetration). Universal service isnow discussed as the digital divide, as the access to information asopposed to services becomes increasingly critical. However, we arediscussing in this paper access to the bits and the network rather thanaccess to the information (or intellectual property) once connected. Theprovision of universal service is seen as a technical problem only in thatthe technology costs money – universal service debates have longbeen the domain of economists. Yet the design of protocols has been thedomain of engineers, the building of systems the corporate domain, andthe discussion of equity the interest of ethicists. The design ofprotocols can define the parameters of the corporate decision-makers,the variables of the economist, and the questions for the ethicist. Thedesign decisions made at the fundamental levels can make communicationsequity more or less likely. In this work I focus on the design ofprotocols for the next generation Internet, protocols which willfundamentally change the best-effort nature of Internet services.Building on the economic and ethnographic work of others I argue thatthe effects of protocols adoption on universal service can be predictedto some degree. By examination of past and current technologies Iexamine a set of technical mechanisms to determine how such mechanismsmight harm or enhance universal service. I define each mechanism (e.g.denial of entry) and offer observations about each particularmechanism's implicit pricing assumptions. I close with a discussion ofinterest to ethicists and regulators on evaluating communicationsprotocols with respect to universal access. Protocols for developingmultiple qualities of service for packet-switched networks have focusedon economic efficiency (e.g. Mackie-Mason, 1995; Choi, Stahl &Winston, 1997; Shapiro & Varian, 1998), billing to encouragewidespread adoption of network innovations (e.g. Xie & Sirbu, 1985)and billing in a manner consistent with the underlying network (e.g.Clark, 1996). Here we examine a set of protocols which include varyingquality of service mechanisms with respect to the compatibility of theprotocols with universal access.     

Emergent storybook reading revisited (Research Note)

Fifteen children from working-class homes attending two kindergarten classes in one school in a small town in Canada were asked to select their favourite book in October and June to read to a researcher. The storybook re-enactments were tape recorded and transcribed, and then coded according to a developmental scheme developed by Sulzby (1985) and Barnhart (1991). The results were compared with the results of Sulzby’s (1985) study with 24 children from middle-class homes. The mean score of the children in the Sulzby study was found to be significantly higher in October than the mean score of the children in the present study. Furthermore, the difference between the mean scores of the two groups had increased significantly by June. Further analysis revealed that the children in the present study did not show the same developmental progression as the children in the Sulzby study and, in fact, 11 of the 15 children did not progress at all along the developmental continuum. The results are discussed in relation to concepts of emergent literacy and socio-economic factors in early reading development.     

Local Dependence in an Operational CAT: Diagnosis and Implications

The accuracy of CAT scores can be negatively affected by local dependence if the CAT utilizes parameters that are misspecified due to the presence of local dependence and/or fails to control for local dependence in responses during the administration stage. This article evaluates the existence and effect of local dependence in a test of Mathematics Knowledge. Diagnostic tools were first used to evaluate the existence of local dependence in items that were calibrated under a 3PL model. A simulation study was then used to evaluate the effect of local dependence on the precision of examinee CAT scores when the 3PL model was used for selection and scoring. The diagnostic evaluation showed strong evidence for local dependence. The simulation suggested that local dependence in parameters had a minimal effect on CAT score precision, while local dependence in responses had a substantial effect on score precision, depending on the degree of local dependence present.     

Academic Trajectories of Children in Formal and Informal Kinship Care

The academic achievement places children on a positive trajectory for their lifespan. The aim of this study was to examine the academic trajectories of children in out-of-home care (OOCH) and whether kinship care has a protective effect relative to nonkin foster care. The sample analyzed for this study consists of 519,306 racially diverse youth in North Carolina schools 8 to 11 years old in the school year 2009–2010 (e.g., 27% African American, 12% Latinx, 53% White). Four longitudinal administrative data sources were merged to create this unique sample. Multilevel modeling revealed no difference between formal and non-OOHC, but showed differences between nonkin foster, informal, and non-OOHC. Children’s academic performance who reside in formal kinship care is similar to children in non-OOHC.     

Understanding higher education access: Inequalities and early learning in low and lower-middle-income countries

Globally, access to higher education has increased, but inequalities by socio-economic background remain. This article explores the relationship between early schooling opportunities (and learning) and progression into higher education in four low and middle-income countries. We analyse data from the Young Lives longitudinal study, following cohorts of young people from age 5 to 22 in four country settings: Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam and India. We reveal wide variability in higher education participation between the four countries, with a common pattern of a very strong association between early learning and later higher education participation, even after allowing for a range of demographic characteristics. Whilst early learning is important in predicting later higher education participation, we also find that significant barriers to higher education participation remain for low socio-economic status groups, even if they initially show good levels of learning. We track the trajectories of children who have initial good levels of learning, and hence arguably the potential to progress to higher education, and assess the extent to which socio-economic background plays a mediating role in these trajectories. Pupils with initially good levels of learning at primary school age, but who are from poor backgrounds, fall back in terms of their relative attainment during secondary schooling years. This implies that socio-economic status continues to be a barrier to educational attainment throughout these children’s lives. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy initiatives aimed at narrowing inequalities in higher education access in poorer countries.     

Social inequalities in early childhood competences,and the relative role of social and emotional versus cognitive skills in predicting adult outcomes

This study draws on the nationally representative British Birth Cohort Study (BCS70) to examine (1) the association between social background and early socio-emotional and cognitive competences at age 5 and (2) the relative and independent contributions of early socio-emotional and cognitive competences to educational and socio-economic attainment in adulthood. A multi-dimensional (multiple exposure, multiple outcome) approach is adopted in conceptualising social background, childhood competences and adult outcomes by age 42. Indicators of social background include parental education, social class, employment status, family income, as well as home ownership, enabling us to test which aspects of socio-economic risk uniquely influence the development of early competences. Indicators of childhood competences include directly assessed cognitive competences (i.e. verbal and visual motor skills), while measures of socio-emotional competences include hyperactivity, good conduct, emotional health and social skills, reported by the child’s mother at age 5. Adult outcomes include highest qualifications, social class and household income by age 42. The findings suggest that multiple indicators of social background are associated with both socio-emotional and cognitive competences, although the associations with socio-emotional competences are less strong than those with cognitive competences. We find significant long-term predictive effects of early cognitive skills on adult outcomes, but also independent effects of socio-emotional competences, in particular self-regulation, over and above the role of family background. The study supports calls for early interventions aiming to reduce family socio-economic risk exposure and supporting the development of cognitive skills and self-regulation (i.e. reducing hyperactivity and conduct problems).     

Keeping company: Educating for online friendship

The possibility of online Aristotelian virtue friendships via social network sites continues to be raised by philosophers, but as yet this has not been positioned within the realm of children or adolescents, who are known to be amongst the largest users of social media. Governmental agencies across the globe still struggle to define the boundaries of online usage for children, often depending on school-based curricula highlighting ‘safe-guarding’ online or some form of character education. This, however, often leaves the philosophical thinking behind virtual relationships as incompletely addressed in educational theory, policy and practice, despite there being some very real difficulties for children. Utilising the insights of Aristotle on friendship, I offer a view that may hold potential for a philosophically based policy. I outline three different ways this philosophical literature could have implications for education and indicate the types of policy that each might entail. I will contend that there are three distinct stakeholders here that can be identified as having a significant role to play in what we should do: the schools themselves, educational researchers and policy writers. Finally, I suggest ways in which research, policy and practice might link together.