Indicators for complex innovation systems

Performance indicators such as national wealth (GDP per capita), R&D intensity (GERD/GDP) and scientific impact (citations/paper) are used to compare innovation systems. These indicators are derived from the ratio of primary measures such as population, GDP, GERD and papers. Frequently they are used to rank members of an innovation system and to inform decision makers. This is illustrated by the European Research Area S&T indicators scoreboard used to compare the performance of member states.A formal study of complex systems has evolved over the past few decades from common observations made by researchers from many fields. Complex systems are dynamic and many of their properties emerge from the interactions among the entities in them. They also have a propensity to exhibit power law or scaling correlations between primary measures used to characterize them.Katz [Katz, J.S., 2000. Scale independent indicators and research assessment. Science and Public Policy 27, 23-36] showed that scientific impact (citations/paper) scales with the size of the group (papers). In this paper it will be shown that two other common measures, R&D intensity and national wealth, scale with the sizes of European countries and Canadian provinces. Some of these scaling correlations are predictable. These findings illustrate that a performance indicator derived from the ratio of two measures may not be properly normalized for size.This paper argues that innovation systems are complex systems. Hence scaling correlations are expected to exist between the primary measures used to characterize them. These scaling correlations can be used to construct scale-independent (scale-adjusted) indicators and models that are truly normalized for size. Scale-independent indicators can more accurately inform decision makers how groups of different sizes contribute to an innovation system. The ranks of member groups of an innovation system by scale-independent indicators can be subtly and profoundly different than the ranks given by conventional indicators. The differences can result in a shift in perspective about the performance of members of an innovation system that has public policy implications.     

Psychometric and Cognitive Functioning of an Under-Determined Computer-Based Response Type for Quantitative Reasoning

We evaluated a computer-delivered response type for measuring quantitative skill. "Generating Examples" (GE) presents under-determined problems that can have many right answers. We administered two GE tests that differed in the manipulation of specific item features hypothesized to affect difficulty. Analyses related to internal consistency reliability, external relations, and features contributing to item difficulty, adverse impact, and examinee perceptions. Results showed that GE scores were reasonably reliable but only moderately related to the GRE quantitative section, suggesting the two tests might be tapping somewhat different skills. Item features that increased difficulty included asking examinees to supply more than one correct answer and to identify whether an item was solvable. Gender differences were similar to those found on the GRE quantitative and analytical test sections. Finally, examinees were divided on whether GE items were a fairer indicator of ability than multiple-choice items, but still overwhelmingly preferred to take the more conventional questions.     

Power laws and athletic performance.

In a previous study, we showed that the 1992 men's world record running times in the 100 m to 200 km could be represented accurately by the equation T = cDn, where T is the calculated record time for distance D, and c and n are positive constants. Here, we extend that to cover the years 1925-65 at 10-year intervals and 1970-95 in 5-year intervals for distances of 100 m to 10 km. Values of n for all years lie along a straight line with a small negative slope. A regression analysis yields an equation for values of n covering the period 1925-95. Values of c from 1925 to 1995 were fitted by a quadratic equation. These two equations define a surface in three-dimensional space (log(T), log(D), data) for all men's world record runs over the 70-year period for distances of 100 m to 10 km. We also demonstrated previously that event times, t, do not scatter randomly with respect to the values of T but form a consistent pattern about the straight lines in log(T) versus log(D) plots. In this study, we show that the pattern of (t-T)/t as a function of date has remained constant for the past 70 years.     

Why Do Some Young Adults not Graduate From Upper-Secondary School? On the Importance of Signals of Labour Market Failure

In high-income countries, not completing secondary school often entails a high risk of social exclusion. Using data on young adults born in 1985 who grew up in metropolitan Sweden, we study factors associated with not graduating from upper-secondary school at age 21. Our hypothesis is that if a young person sees examples of people who are not able to earn a living despite having a long education, such negative examples are influential. Results from estimated logistic models are consistent with the hypothesis.     

The Influence of Informal Science Education Experiences on the Development of Two Beginning Teachers’ Science Classroom Teaching Identity

In case studies of two first-year elementary classroom teachers, we explored the influence of informal science education (ISE) they experienced in their teacher education program. Our theoretical lens was identity development, delimited to classroom science teaching. We used complementary data collection methods and analysis, including interviews, electronic communications, and drawing prompts. We found that our two participants referenced as important the ISE experiences in their development of classroom science identities that included resilience, excitement and engagement in science teaching and learning–qualities that are emphasized in ISE contexts. The data support our conclusion that the ISE experiences proved especially memorable to teacher education interns during the implementation of the No Child Left Behind policy which concentrated on school-tested subjects other than science.