Forecasting performance of grey prediction for education expenditure and school enrollment

GM(1,1) and GM(1,1) rolling models derived from grey system theory were estimated using time-series data from projection studies by National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). An out-of-sample forecasting competition between the two grey prediction models and exponential smoothing used by NCES was conducted for education expenditure and school enrollment under the assumption that grey prediction was as promising as NCES's forecasting technique in dealing with univariate time-series data while some other determinants of the variables under examination were excluded. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to verify that the GM(1,1), and GM(1,1) rolling models would provide forecasts that were at least as accurate as the NCES's approach to extrapolating education expenditure and school enrollment. The findings revealed that the forecasting efficiency of GM(1,1) rolling model was superior to exponential smoothing and GM(1,1) model. The results can offer valuable insights and provide a basis for further research in model building for short-term estimation on educational statistics.     

刍议农业可持续植保与有害生物的综合治理

本文在介绍可持续植物保护概念的基础上，分析了可持续植保中有害生物综合治理在我国的发展以及存在的问题，提出了实现有害生物综合治理的措施和方法，同时特别强调加强生物农药及其它非化学防治方法的推广和利用，减少化学农药的使用，减轻生态环境的压力。     

应用型大学培养高技能人才课程模式的反思与构建--以天津工程师范学院"本科+技师"培养模式为例

针对现有高技能人才课程模式在课程类、形、质的结构上存在的弊端,天津工程师范学院机械系机械制造及自动化专业以“技术 人文”为理念,“本科 技师”为目标,构建应用型大学培养高技能人才的“模块 系列”模式,其中“模块”包括通识教育课模块、专识教育课模块和特识教育模块“;系列”包括必修课和选修课系列。     

Improving training outcomes: the significance of motivation when learning about new shipboard technology

This paper reports on some of the findings from a study of new technology and training in shipping. It identifies the key significance of motivation in the learning process and identifies potential factors that motivate or demotivate seafarers when undertaking training about new equipment. It shows that seafarers’ motivation is likely to be impacted by confidence that training is good for the job as well as for promotion. It demonstrates that companies can facilitate and encourage individuals to initiate learning activities but that they may equally adopt strategies which discourage learning. Enabling factors include: establishing a positive learning environment; adopting clear policies; allowing seafarers to identify their own training needs and allowing seafarers to request support for specific courses. Conversely, companies may demotivate some seafarers in relation to training by shifting the burden of training ‘costs’, such as time and money, onto them.     

我国数字图书馆领域引入公共借阅权的相关问题探讨

在对公共借阅权的基本理论问题进行概述的基础上，系统分析了我国数字图书馆领域引入公共借阅权的意义，深入探讨了公共借阅权的行使条件，最后提出了在今后数字图书馆实行市场准入以后，公共借阅权也不会与国民待遇原则相冲突的观点。     

国内商业银行差别化服务分析

本文从商业银行差别化服务的理论模型入手，分析了国内商业银行差别化服务的必要性夏制约因素，最后对国内商业银行差别化服务提出了适当的建议。     

供应链企业的商业模式创新机制研究

本文依托产业价值链的“微笑曲线”,结合供应链的“四流”价值流要素,构建供应链服务行业的价值链模型,接着结合商业模式创新的理论视角,应用探究性和案例性研究方法,对供应链企业从创新战略与创新路径两个维度研究商业模式创新机制,最后以实践案例进行分析。研究得出三点结论：在商业模式创新机制方面,企业可实施商流、物流、信息流和资金流四大价值流管理创新战略;企业可遵循专业性精深创新和综合性拓展创新两条路径;企业实施商业模式创新需要以其拥有的关键资源和能力以及依托其在所属行业的价值链模型作为参照基础。     

基于新木桶理论的数字图书馆网络安全策略研究

目前,随着数字图书馆的飞速发展,数字图书馆网络安全风险日益突出,图书馆必须不断加强网络系统的安全防护。文章根据新木桶理论的原理,探讨了加强数字图书馆网络安全防护的措施。     

基于时间h型指数的科学学类期刊学术评价研究

在期刊h指数的基础上,着重构建了动态h型指数和时间活跃h型指数,利用中国引文数据库,从平均年代影响力和影响力的活跃性两个角度,对科学学类核心期刊进行评价。结果表明:两种指标体现了期刊学术影响力评价的时间效应,反映出期刊刊载论文的深度及新颖度。     

黑龙江省高校图书馆文献资源保障体系建设研究

在阐述信息服务在区域经济中的战略地位的同时,对国内外高校图书馆文献资源保障体系及模式进行了系统的研究,并在此基础上分析了黑龙江省高校图书馆文献资源建设的现状及存在的问题,进而提出了黑龙江省高校图书馆文献保障体系建设对策。