Possible Solution to Publication Bias Through Bayesian Statistics,Including Proper Null Hypothesis Testing

The present paper argues that an important cause of publication bias resides in traditional frequentist statistics forcing binary decisions. An alternative approach through Bayesian statistics provides various degrees of support for any hypothesis allowing balanced decisions and proper null hypothesis testing, which may prevent publication bias. Testing a null hypothesis becomes increasingly relevant in mediated communication and virtual environments. To illustrate our arguments, we re-analyzed three data sets of previously published data --media violence effects, mediated communication, and visuospatial abilities across genders. Results are discussed in view of possible Bayesian interpretations, which are more open to a content-related argumentation of varying levels of support. Finally, we discuss potential pitfalls of a Bayesian approach such as BF-hacking (cf., “God would love a Bayes Factor of 3.01 nearly as much as a BF of 2.99”). Especially when BF values are small, replication studies and Bayesian updating are still necessary to draw conclusions.     

A control group outcome study of a nonexclusionary time‐out package to improve social skills with preschoolers

Abstract

Teachers used a nonexclusionary time‐out package to treat inappropriate social behaviors that interfered with instructional tasks in four classrooms of preschool children, each containing an average of 16 students. We yoked classrooms on pretreatment scores of target behaviors and randomly assigned them to a time‐out ribbon plus praise or control condition. Students in the treatment condition wore wristbands with attached smiling face stickers and received praise from teachers for taking turns talking and remaining seated during group activities. Contingent on disruptive behavior, teachers removed the wristbands signaling a three‐minute time‐out period in which teachers restricted praise and attention but ongoing participation in activities continued. Multiple measures of treatment outcome were analyzed via MANCOVA and ANCOVAs. Behavior improved on direct observations of target behavior, the Preschool Behavior Questionnaire (PBQ) and items on a semantic differential, but not the Matson Evaluation of Social Skills with Youngsters. Treatment acceptability also supported treatment effects. We discuss implications of these results.