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121.
Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Schlottmann A 《Child development》2001,72(1):103-122
Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision. 相似文献
122.
123.
Given that gestures may provide access to transitions in cognitive development, preschoolers' performance on standard tasks was compared with their performance on a new gesture false belief task. Experiment 1 confirmed that children (N=45, M age=54 months) responded consistently on two gesture tasks and that there is dramatic improvement on both the gesture false belief task and a standard task from ages 3 to 5. In 2 subsequent experiments focusing on children in transition with respect to understanding false beliefs (Ns=34 and 70, M age=48 months), there was a significant advantage of gesture over standard and novel verbal-response tasks. Iconic gesture may facilitate reasoning about opaque mental states in children who are rapidly developing concepts of mind. 相似文献
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125.
古代希腊犬儒学派(Cynicism)哲学家第欧根尼,因以木桶代替房屋而闻名于世。犬儒学派是由希腊文“Kyon”(狗)这个字转变而成的。他们蔑视世俗的习惯和形式,认为这些毫无价值,而崇尚反文明、反社会的原始简单生活“。习惯是第二天性”就是第欧根尼的名言,指出习惯对人类的无意义的拘束力,他们还认为世界上的权威不过是可笑的错觉。当时亚历山大征服了全希腊,十分得意之时,听到别人对第欧根尼的批评后,非常想见这位学者,于是屡次派人邀请他。无奈第欧根尼孤傲成性,毫不理会,于是亚历山大不得不亲自前往见他。据传那时候第欧根尼正在木桶中晒太… 相似文献
126.
假设有人给了你一枝笔,一枝密封的、纯色的水笔,里面有多少墨水你看不到,很可能刚刚试写几字便用干耗尽;也可能足以完成一部或几部杰作,永存于世,使世事为之大变。而这一切你在动笔之前却是一无所知。根据游戏的规则,你确实水远也不会知道,只能冒一下险。而事实上,也没有 相似文献
127.
我向空中射出一枝箭,我不知它落在何方。因为它飞得如此神速,我的视力都追赶不上。我向高空唱出一支歌,我不知它落在何方。谁有如此犀利眼力,能追赶上歌声的飞扬? 相似文献
128.
大卫.A.博曼 《课堂内外(高中版)》2007,(5):1
假如有人给你一支笔,一支密封的、纯色的水笔,里面有多少墨水你无法看到,很可能刚刚试着写几个字就能用干,也可能足够写一部或几部皇皇巨著,流传千古,使世事为之而改变。而这一切你在动笔之前无法知晓。 相似文献
129.
ZHOU Xiaoqing HAO Hong KUZNETSOV Valerian A WASCHL John 《天津大学学报(英文版)》2006,12(B09):94-99
In the present paper, a dynamic plastic damage model for concrete has been employed to estimate responses of a reinforced concrete slab subjected to blast loading. The interaction between the blast wave and the concrete slab is considered in 3D simulation. In the first stage, the initial detonation and blast wave propagation is modelled in 2D simulation before the blast wave reaches the concrete slab, then the results obtained from 2D calculation are remapped to a 3D model. The calculated blast load is compared with that obtained from TM5-1300. Numerical results of the concrete slab response are compared with the explosive test carried out-in the Weapons System Division, Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Department of Defence, Australia. 相似文献
130.