How do Tertiary Dropouts Fare in the Labour Market? A Comparison between EU Countries

Dropping out of university is regularly discussed as a negative indicator. However, research on actual career trajectories of dropouts is virtually non‐existent. This study estimates the association between tertiary dropouts and career chances in 15 European countries. Using data from the 2011 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), estimates are derived from the application of propensity score matching taking a variety of individual background characteristics including cognitive skills into account. Results indicate that individuals are likely to fare better in the labour market if they enrol in university and drop out than if they do not enrol at all. Policy makers need to revise the notion that dropping out is purely negative.