Measuring the influence of mere exposure effect of TV commercial adverts on purchase behavior based on machine learning prediction models

Since its introduction, television has been the main channel of investment for advertisements in order to influence customers purchase behavior. Many have attributed the mere exposure effect as the source of influence in purchase intention and purchase decision; however, most of the studies of television advertisement effects are not only outdated, but their sample size is questionable and their environments do not reflect reality. With the advent of the internet, social media and new information technologies, many recent studies focus on the effects of online advertisement, meanwhile the investment in television advertisement still has not declined. In response to this, we applied machine learning algorithms SVM and XGBoost, as well as Logistic Regression, to construct a number of prediction models based on at-home advertisement exposure time and demographic data, examining the predictability of Actual Purchase and Purchase Intention behaviors of 3000 customers across 36 different products during the span of 3 months. If we were able to predict purchase behaviors with models based on exposure time more reliably than with models based on demographic data, the obvious strategy for businesses would be to increase the number of adverts. On the other hand, if models based on exposure time had unreliable predictability in contrast to models based on demographic data, doubts would surface about the effectiveness of the hard investment in television advertising. Based on our results, we found that models based on advert exposure time were consistently low in their predictability in comparison with models based on demographic data only, and with models based on both demographic data and exposure time data. We also found that there was not a statistically significant difference between these last two kinds of models. This suggests that advert exposure time has little to no effect in the short-term in increasing positive actual purchase behavior.     

Inferring Mental States From Dynamic Faces in Adolescents With Autism Spectrum Disorder: Insights From Eye Tracking

There is mixed evidence concerning whether individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) can infer mental states from the eyes. This study aims to elucidate whether they use less efficient strategies. Sixteen adolescents with ASD (11–16 year olds) were compared to a chronological age- and IQ-matched sample of 16 typically developing (TD) adolescents. Eight mental states were presented as full dynamic faces and in conditions altering the presence of expressive dynamic information from the eyes and mouth. Bayes factors revealed that adolescents with ASD had similar accuracy, response times (less conclusive), and fixations to TD adolescents. Findings imply that adolescents with ASD spontaneously fixate on the eyes, and not all individuals with ASD have difficulties inferring mental states from faces.     

Human and non-human intermediation in rural agricultural markets

ABSTRACT

A central trope of the information society is that of ‘information flows.’ The implicit assumption underlying such a vision involves the removal of gatekeepers and intermediaries who are perceived to impede such flows. Drawing from field research on information circulation, trade, and money in rural markets in Myanmar and India, we show why intermediaries persist alongside information and communication technologies (ICTs) in trade and financial transactions in the ‘Information Age.’ We examine the range of roles, (human and non-human) actors, and material practices that are involved in conducting financial transactions, and we show the importance of historical legacies and politics in explaining why both cash and financial intermediaries persist in the digital age. Focusing on the different value that human and non-human intermediaries bring to financial encounters helps explain what characteristics make each resilient or replaceable in a time of change. By situating intermediaries and mediations in the social relations within which they operate, we bring back the role of power and politics – an element that is often missing in accounts focused on the unmediated and ‘free’ circulation of information using ICTs – in explaining processes of mediation and circulation.     

Exploratory analysis of decentralized governance and its implications for the equity of early childhood education services in four countries of Europe and Central Asia

We conducted a qualitative study in four countries of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region and explored the Early Childhood Education (ECE) policy landscape with an emphasis on the challenges and opportunities decentralization has presented for the provision of services. We content-analyzed ECE policies and documents to map national approaches to ECE. Key informant interviews were conducted to assess the implementation of decentralized ECE governance. An analytical framework that combined core constructs of ECE systems and key domains of decentralization (autonomy, institutional capacity and accountability) was developed and applied. Our analysis points to four overarching processes that contribute to the perpetuation and possible increase of inequitable ECE including (1) sparse mechanisms for participatory and autonomous policy formulation, with few systematic efforts to strengthen local institutional capacities; (2) fragmented policy approaches to promote the assessment and strengthening of quality at scale; (3) funding frameworks and financing schemes that tend to benefit enrolment in contexts of higher levels of economic development; and (4) few mechanisms for coordination to ensure operational coherence across the ECE sector.     

Changing Patterns of Scaffolding and Autonomy During Individual Music Lessons: A Mixed Methods Approach

Learning implies change. Inside and outside schools, we aim for students to change into people with more skills and knowledge as well as with a growing sense of agency and responsibility. Furthermore, education itself is subject to constant change. In this article, we examine change in 3 case studies in the context of individual music lessons from a complex dynamic systems approach. Three beginning string instrument students and their teacher were followed for 18 months (28 lessons per dyad) by means of video observations. We combine cluster analyses on longitudinal data with qualitative illustrations of moment-to-moment teacher–student transactions to gain insight into how and why change in teaching and learning occurs. The 3 cases show distinct profiles of change: the development of strong suboptimal attractor states, the emergence of optimal attractor states, and a profile that is characterized by falling back into suboptimal attractor states. We discuss how optimal and suboptimal learning and teaching trajectories can unfold over time and how a mixed methods approach can provide valuable new insights for both practice and future research.     

Fair access to higher education and discourses of development: a policy analysis from Indonesia

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between fair access policies and discourses of development through a policy analysis of higher education reform in post-authoritarian Indonesia (1998–present). The method was document analysis of five laws/regulations, using the criteria of accessibility, availability, and horizontality to identify the extent of fair access for students from (1) lower socioeconomic backgrounds and (2) under-developed regions of the archipelago. The analysis demonstrates how neoliberal, human capital, inclusive development and Pancasila discourses have been called upon in the making and un-making of a higher education market, with ultimately favourable outcomes for the fair access agenda.