A two-stage proxy variable approach to estimating movie box office receipts

This paper advances the ongoing discussion of methods for predicting movie box office revenues with two contributions to the methodology and an out-of-sample test of the model. The first innovation is the development of a two-stage model using publicly available pre-release indicators to predict (1) initial week and (2) subsequent run box office revenues. To incorporate the experience-good nature of movies, the second stage is estimated by incorporating a proxy variable for box office success during the first week relative to predicted first week success. The second contribution is an empirical test of De Vany and Walls’ (J Econ Dyn Control 28:1035–1057, 2004) finding that the distribution of movie revenues has “heavy tails” and follows a non-Gaussian stable distribution with infinite variance. We estimate the two-stage model of a movie’s box office success on all general release movies in 1 year with both the Gaussian and stable distribution with heavy tails and infinite variance and find no evidence for the stable distribution in either stage of the estimation. This two-stage model is validated by comparing all general release movies in 3 future years (out-of-sample data) to the model’s predictions.     

Leadership and inclusion: a special school perspective

In July 2002, the National College for School Leadership (NCSL) held a 'Leading Edge' seminar focused on the contribution that leaders in special schools can make to the development of Inclusive policies and practices. The day gave colleagues working in specialist contexts an opportunity to share examples and experiences of current initiatives and to speculate about future trends and developments in inclusive education. In this article, Robin Attfield and Chris Williams, Assistant Directors in Programmes and Research respectively at the NCSL, explore the context in which the seminar took place and some of the themes and issues that emerged from discussion on the day. At the end of their paper, they summarise the key messages that the special school leaders who attended the seminar wished to communicate to a wider audience and articulate a further role for leaders in special schools in the development of inclusion.     

Let's keep in contact with Europe — a joint European research project about lifelong education for adults with learning difficulties

The authors of this article come from a range of professional backgrounds in agencies across Europe. Samuel Fernandez lectures at the University of Oviedo in Spain; Janos Kovari works at the Kerek Vilag Foundation in Hungary; Paola Vulterini works for Capodarco, a service provider in Italy; and Val Williams is a researcher at the Norah Fry Research Centre at the University of Bristol. Using funding from the European Commission, the team undertook research into the curriculum provided for adults with learning difficulties in a variety of centres in their four home countries. Fernandez, Kovari, Vulterini and Williams find some interesting similarities and some significant differences in provision. They also seek the views of service users about a common core curriculum derived from their research and present a case for further work in this important area.     

Challenging assumptions about values,interests and power in further and higher education partnerships

This article raises questions that challenge assumptions about values, interests and power in further and higher education partnerships. These topics were explored in a series of semi-structured interviews with a sample of principals and senior higher education partnership managers of colleges spread across a single region in England. The data suggest that common assumptions evident in the literature and professional discourse about the hegemony of higher education institutions in partnerships with further education and sixth form colleges may be misplaced. Questions are also raised about an exclusive focus upon shared values in educational partnerships, and it is suggested that greater clarity about the focus of educational partnerships can explain how successful partnerships can negotiate which values and interests are shared and which are not – an approach that can be a useful modus operandi in the increasingly competitive educational markets in which universities and colleges operate.