Inference Based on the Best-Fitting Model Can Contribute to the Replication Crisis: Assessing Model Selection Uncertainty Using a Bootstrap Approach

Inferences and conclusions drawn from model fitting analyses are commonly based on a single “best fitting” model. If model selection and inference are carried out using the same data model selection, uncertainty is ignored. We illustrate the Type I error inflation that can result from using the same data for model selection and inference, and we then propose a simple bootstrap-based approach to quantify model selection uncertainty in terms of model selection rates. A selection rate can be interpreted as an estimate of the replication probability of a fitted model. The benefits of bootstrapping model selection uncertainty are demonstrated in growth mixture analyses of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, and a 2-group measurement invariance analysis of the Holzinger–Swineford data.     

Sexual reconviction rates in the United Kingdom and actuarial risk estimates

OBJECTIVE: Assessing the risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators of children is highly relevant and important to professionals involved in child protection. Recent progress in assessing risk in sexual offenders has established the validity of actuarial measures, although there continues to be some debate about the application of these instruments. This paper summarizes the debate between clinical and actuarial approaches and reviews the "base rate" for United Kingdom sexual offense reconviction. METHOD: A review of the literature revealed 16 UK sexual reconviction studies, 8 using incarcerated samples (N=5,915) and 8 using non-incarcerated samples (N=1,274). UK estimates of sexual reconviction rates are compared with European and North American studies. RESULTS: The mean sexual reconviction rates for the incarcerated sample at 2 years (6.0%), 4 years (7.8%) and 6 years or more (19.5%) were higher than that of the comparative non-incarcerated sample at 2 years (5.7%), up to 4 years (5.9%), and 6 years or more (15.5%). The overall sexual reconviction rate for both samples combined was 5.8% at 2 years, and 17.5% at 6 years or more. CONCLUSIONS: The sexual reconviction rate for incarcerated sexual offenders is higher than that of non-incarcerated sexual offenders. The UK sexual reconviction rates were comparable with European and North American studies.     

Jack in two boxes: A postmodern perspective on the transformation of persons into portraits

The paper explores issues surrounding portrayal in educational research and interrogates the notion of a life as a textual product, via an analysis of two short biographical narratives which happen to portray the same person — a British primary school head teacher nearing the end of his career. The discrepancies between these two texts point to the problematic nature of the relationship between person and portrait, and make visible some of the textual devices that writers/researchers use in order to achieve coherence and authenticity in biographical narratives.     

Indian child welfare: A community team approach to protective services

The purpose of this study is threefold: first, to describe the characteristics of child abuse and neglect on a major Indian reservation; second, to examine the impact of a community team approach to child abuse and neglect as measured by the incidence of reported abuse and neglect and admissions for emergency foster care; and third, to make recommendations for actions to close the gaps in child welfare services to Indian children living on reservations.     

Introduction to the research policy 20th anniversary special issue of the publication of “Profiting from Innovation” by David J. Teece

This introductory essay reviews the key contributions of David Teece's landmark paper “Profiting from Innovation” published in research policy in 1986. It summarises the contributions of each of the papers in the special issue. It then offers some perspectives on the key themes emerging from these papers, and on the broader challenges facing researchers, strategists and policymakers in the field of technology innovation today.     

Teachers' education, classroom quality, and young children's academic skills: results from seven studies of preschool programs

In an effort to provide high-quality preschool education, policymakers are increasingly requiring public preschool teachers to have at least a Bachelor's degree, preferably in early childhood education. Seven major studies of early care and education were used to predict classroom quality and children's academic outcomes from the educational attainment and major of teachers of 4-year-olds. The findings indicate largely null or contradictory associations, indicating that policies focused solely on increasing teachers' education will not suffice for improving classroom quality or maximizing children's academic gains. Instead, raising the effectiveness of early childhood education likely will require a broad range of professional development activities and supports targeted toward teachers' interactions with children.