Psychometric properties of the motor diagnostics in the German football talent identification and development programme

The utilisation of motor performance tests for talent identification in youth sports is discussed intensively in talent research. This article examines the reliability, differential stability and validity of the motor diagnostics conducted nationwide by the German football talent identification and development programme and provides reference values for a standardised interpretation of the diagnostics results. Highly selected players (the top 4% of their age groups, U12–U15) took part in the diagnostics at 17 measurement points between spring 2004 and spring 2012 (N = 68,158). The heterogeneous test battery measured speed abilities and football-specific technical skills (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting, juggling). For all measurement points, the overall score and the speed tests showed high internal consistency, high test–retest reliability and satisfying differential stability. The diagnostics demonstrated satisfying factorial-related validity with plausible and stable loadings on the two empirical factors “speed” and “technical skills”. The score, and the technical skills dribbling and juggling, differentiated the most among players of different performance levels and thus showed the highest criterion-related validity. Satisfactory psychometric properties for the diagnostics are an important prerequisite for a scientifically sound rating of players’ actual motor performance and for the future examination of the prognostic validity for success in adulthood.     

How should “hot” players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness

Previous research has shown that changes in shot difficulty may have rendered the hot-hand effect in basketball unobservable and are potentially a result of defensive adjustments. However, it has not been directly analysed whether strategic changes indeed take place in response to streakiness and whether they are effective with respect to winning games. The current work consists of an experimental study with 18 professional coaches and 20 players based on video sequences from National Basketball Association games, where the shown player displayed a streaky performance in half of the sequences. While coaches were asked to devise a defensive strategy after each viewed sequence, players had to assume the role of the shown player and decide whether to shoot or pass the ball. We find that coaches tended to increase the defensive pressure significantly more often on presumably hot players and thus make use of the hot-hand heuristic. Meanwhile, players chose to shoot more frequently in low-pressure and streaky situations but selected “pass” regardless of the previous performance when they faced increased defensive pressure. Assuming that a streaky player’s performance is indeed elevated during hot phases, hot-hand behaviour can be considered adaptive in certain situations as it led hot players to pass instead of shoot.