Children's skill in making predictions and their understanding of what predicting means: A developmental study

The purpose of this study was to describe the development of elementary students' skill in making predictions and of their understanding of what predicting means. The study involved observing and assessing the performance of 167 children on the Physical Manipulation Test (PMT), a test involving the manipulation of science materials and equipment. Children were interviewed about what they understand predicting to mean, how they use it at school and at home, and why they think it is important. For each of the seven topics tested, even the youngest children were able to offer predictions. Accuracy varied with the topic, increasing between Grades 1 and 4 and leveling off after that. The increase in skill involved children's growing ability to attend to patterns discerned through their own observations. Four levels in the development of predicting skill, as it relates to particular topics, are described. Children's understanding of predicting showed steady improvement through Grade 6. Children's awareness of their use of predicting at school and at home, and their ability to explain the importance of predicting, also increased through Grades 1 to 6, with a spurt at Grade 4. Children understood predicting to be an internal process in which one uses knowledge to anticipate a future event; they regarded predicting as an important way of being intellectually involved with the world.     

Children are not Meant to be Studied …

The project of studying children in order to understand them, which lies at the heart of contemporary thinking about children and their education, is misconceived. It rests, jrst of all, upon a false belief that we can only come to know something properly by deliberately and systematically pursuing knowledge of it. Secondly, it offers a paradigm of knowing children which justifies parents and teachers in not giving themselves to children. By re-interpreting the problems that adults experience with children as technical, as arising from lack of information about them, it ignores the personal and moral dimension of adults' relations with children and thus further alienates them from one another.     

What Assessment and Research Say About the Condition of Education

Do students today know less than their parents or grandparents did as students? Are they being academically outclassed by students of other nations? Or have ideologically driven policy makers painted an unnecessarily negative picture of student achievement?     

Chaos theory, informational needs, and natural disasters

This study applies chaos theory to a system-wide analysis of crisis communication in a natural disaster. Specifically, we analyze crisis communication during the 1997 Red River Valley flood in Minnesota and North Dakota. This flood, among the worst in modern American history, consumed entire metropolitan areas, displacing thousands of people. The conditions and decisions leading to the disaster, and the subsequent reactions are retraced. Communication related to river crest predictions (fractals), the shock at the magnitude of the crisis (cosmology episode), novel forms of reorganizing (self-organization), and agencies that aided in establishing a renewed order (strange attractors) are evaluated. Ultimately, we argue that preexisting sensemaking structures favoring rationalized, traditional views of a complex system led officials to make inappropriately unequivocal predictions and ultimately diminished the effectiveness of the region's crisis communication and planning.