A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE DRUG ISSUE, 1985-1990: THE PRESS, THE PRESIDENT AND PUBLIC OPINIO

This study examines the triangular relationship of the press,the president and public opinion about the drug issue in theUnited States from 1985 to 1990. Agenda-setting theory servesas the theoretical foundation for the ARIMA time-series analysis,which attempts to address who is driving the public opinionformation process about drugs: the press, the president, orthe public. The study employs a unique method in that ‘mostimportant problem’ survey results from nine organizationsare quilted into a time-series of 70 monthly points to measurethe public agenda. The press agenda is based on a computerizedcontent analysis of the frequency of coverage of the drug issue,and the presidential agenda is based on a similar analysis ofthe presidents’ public relations agendas. The three univariatetime-series are identified, estimated, and diagnosed. Then thewhite-noise component of each is used in a cross-correlationanalysis to address the research question. The results indicatethat public opinion mirrors or immediately follows the press,though public opinion also drives the press agenda. Second,the study suggests that the president is following the publicagenda, though the president also has strong immediate influenceon public opinion. And, finally it suggests the president mirrorsand follows the media, in addition to following public opinion.The trend of opinion, when viewed in relation to the historyof events surrounding the issue, suggests that the public opinionformation process, as measured through the lens of public opinionpolls, may be a matter of public perceptions of the realityof the issue and of the pseudo-realities of information campaignsand presidential and press attention, which may have their originsback in the heart of the public concern.     

Mobility and wage equilibration in the educator labor market

Using longitudinal data, this article examines mobility and wage equilibration patterns for instructional personnel for kindergarten through the twelfth grade. The study concludes that (1) contrary to popular belief, educators are at least as responsive as other workers to interoccupational wage differences in deciding to change occupations; (2) educators paid above (below) the wage they could expect in the economy at large experience less (greater) than average wage growth; (3) educators are responsive to wage differentials within teaching in deciding to change districts but not as strongly responsive as to wage differentials between teaching and other occupations; and (4) educators paid above (below) the average wage for educators with similar qualifications experience less (greater) than average wage growth from one school year to the next.“Frustrated teachers stew over working conditions, but most don't quit.”