工业和商业预测方法(指数平滑法和曲线拟合法实用指南)

工业和商业预测方法从实用的角度系统地介绍了确定型时间序列分析模型和回归模型。其中第一篇着重讨论各种时序模型的特点及其应用,并给出了相应的工作流程图,具有很大的参考价值。我们将分两次在增刊上刊载全文,本次刊载的是时序预测部分。     

基本的情报测度

情报与决策活动是密切相关的,情报减少决策中的不确定性。在效果意义上,不确定性应与决策者对行动方案的选择有关,而选择行动方案过程中的不确定性明显地与决策者执行每个方案的概率P有关。如果所有的P都相同,那么决策者便完全不能确定选择那个方案;如果决策者已确定了他的行动方案,那么,对某一i来说,P(αi)=1,而其它的概率为0。所以我们选用概率P的方差作为情报测度的主要成份。当P都相同时,方差为0,当某一P为1而其它的P为0时,方差最大。     

Associations between academic and motor performance in a heterogeneous sample of children with learning disabilities

A heterogeneous sample of 137 school-aged children with learning disabilities (IQ > 80) attending special needs schools was examined on the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (MABC). The results show that compared to the available norm scores, 52.6% of the children tested performed below the 15th percentile on manual dexterity, 40.9% on ball skills, and 33.7% on balance skills. Furthermore, after controlling for IQ, significant small to moderate partial correlations were found between spelling and mathematics and the MABC total score, as well as small to moderate correlations between mathematics and balance, between reading and ball skills, and between spelling and manual dexterity. The present findings are compared with previously reported results obtained in more homogenous groups, and based on the resultant relationships between academic performance and motor development, recommendations for future motor intervention studies are made.     

Examining agreement and longitudinal stability among traditional and RTI-based definitions of reading disability using the affected-status agreement statistic

Rates of agreement among alternative definitions of reading disability and their 1- and 2-year stabilities were examined using a new measure of agreement, the affected-status agreement statistic. Participants were 288,114 first through third grade students. Reading measures were Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills Oral Reading Fluency and Nonsense Word Fluency, and six levels of severity of poor reading were examined (25th, 20th, 15th, 10th, 5th, and 3rd percentile ranks). Four definitions were compared, including traditional unexpected low achievement and three response-to-intervention-based definitions: low achievement, low growth, and dual discrepancy. Rates of agreement were variable but only poor to moderate overall, with poorest agreement between unexpected low achievement and the other definitions. Longitudinal stability was poor, with poorest stability for the low growth definition. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Metacognitive strategy use of eighth-grade students with and without learning disabilities during mathematical problem solving: a think-aloud analysis

The purpose of the study was to investigate the metacognitive abilities of students with LD as they engage in math problem solving and to determine processing differences between these students and their low- and average-achieving peers (n = 73). Students thought out loud as they solved three math problems of increasing difficulty. Protocols were coded and analyzed to determine frequency of cognitive verbalizations and productive and nonproductive metacognitive verbalizations. Results indicated different patterns of metacognitive activity for ability groups when type of metacognitive verbalization and problem difficulty were considered. Implications for instruction are discussed.     

Understanding caregivers' attitudes towards physical punishment of children: evidence from 34 low- and middle-income countries

Objectives

This article presents findings on caregivers’ attitudes towards physical punishment of children from 34 household surveys conducted in low- and middle-income countries in 2005 and 2006. The article analyzes the variability in attitudes by background characteristics of the respondents to examine whether various factors at the individual and family levels correlate with the caregivers’ beliefs in the need for violent discipline. The article also examines to what extent attitudes influence behaviors and compares groups of respondents to see how attitudes relate to disciplinary practices across caregivers of different socio-economic backgrounds.

Methods

The analysis is based on nationally representative data from 33 MICS and 1 DHS surveys. Questions on child discipline were addressed to the mother (or primary caregiver) of one randomly selected child aged 2–14 years in each household. The questionnaire asked whether any member of the household had used various violent and non-violent disciplinary practices with that child during the past month. Additionally, the interviewers asked the respondent if she believed that, in order to bring up that child properly, physical punishment was necessary. The sample included 166,635 mothers/primary caregivers.

Results

The analysis shows that, in most countries, the majority of mothers/primary caregivers did not think there was a need for physical punishment. Overall, characteristics such as household wealth and size, educational level and age, as well as place of residence were significantly associated with caregivers’ attitudes. The analysis confirms that beliefs influence disciplinary practices to a large degree: in all the countries but two, children were significantly more likely to experience physical punishment if their mothers/primary caregivers thought such punishment was needed. However, large proportions of children were found to be subject to physical punishment even if their mothers/primary caregivers did not consider this method necessary. This discrepancy between attitudes and behaviors is observed, although to different extents, in all the countries and across groups of mothers/primary caregivers with different levels of education and wealth.

Conclusions

The data presented in this article are among the few resources available to help develop a more global understanding of caregivers’ motivation in using violent discipline across a multitude of low- and middle-income countries. As such, the analysis of these data provides important insights for the development of effective strategies that will promote positive parenting practices. However, further data collection and analysis are needed to fully understand the reasons why physical punishment is used – even when caregivers do not think such method is necessary – opening the door for an even sharper programmatic response to change the practice.     

Diagnostic coding of abuse related fractures at two children's emergency departments

Objectives

Pediatric fractures suspicious for abuse are often evaluated in emergency departments (ED), although corresponding diagnostic coding for possible abuse may be lacking. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to determine the proportion of fracture cases investigated in the ED for abuse that had corresponding International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes documenting abuse suspicion. Additional objectives were to determine the proportion of these fractures with admission ICD abuse coding, and physician text diagnoses recording abuse suspicion in the ED and/or admission notes. Factors possibly associated with abuse-related ED ICD codes were also examined.

Methods

Children less than three years of age that presented primarily with a fracture to two large academic children's hospitals from 1997 to 2007 and were evaluated for suspicion of abuse by child protective services were included in this retrospective review. The main outcome measure was the proportion of the fracture cases that had abuse suspicion reflected in ED discharge ICD codes.

Results

Of the 216 eligible patients, only 23 (11.5%) patients had ED ICD codes that included the possibility of abuse. Forty-nine (22.7%) had the possibility for abuse documented by physicians as an ED discharge diagnosis. In addition, 53/149 (35.6%) of all admitted patients and 34/55 (61.8%) of confirmed abuse cases included abuse-related admission ICD coding. Female gender was found to be a factor associated with ED ICD abuse codes.

Conclusion

Current standards of ICD coding result in a significant underestimate of the prevalence of children assessed in the ED and hospital wards for possible and confirmed abusive fracture(s).     

Managing the legal proceedings: An interpretative phenomenological analysis of sexually abused children's experience with the legal process

Objective

The aim of this study was to describe how sexually abused children experience the legal process, a process that includes being questioned by the police during the preliminary investigation and by lawyers and the prosecutor in the courtroom, and meeting other professionals from various agencies.

Method

Face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted with 10 children—9 girls and 1 boy between 9 and 15 years old—who had experienced child sexual abuse (CSA). The interviews were semi structured and carried out and analyzed by interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). The aim of IPA is to explore the participants’ views of the world and to adopt as far as possible an “insider perspective.” IPA draws on a tradition of phenomenology and symbolic interactionism in attempting to understand how people make sense of their experiences.

Results

Five major themes emerged through the analysis: not being believed, making CSA visible, need for support, sanctions for offenders, and lack of respect for the child's integrity. Almost all the children had a feeling of not being believed. They described feelings ranging from anxiety to dread and even terror when they had to describe the CSA they had experienced. Even though the importance of support for such children is already well understood, the children stated that the support they were given was not sufficient. The children said that they wanted support from a single professional who was well informed about both the legal process and CSA. When the children were asked to reflect on sanctions against the abusers, they said that it was important that the perpetrator got treatment/therapy but they also said that imprisonment was desirable. Financial compensation was not as important to them; the damage had been done and money could not compensate for that damage. The children also said that both the lawyers and the media had treated them with disrespect.

Conclusions

It is valuable for children who have been exposed to CSA to learn that they can take part in the legal process as equal partners with the other participants, and it is evident that the quality of psychological care and support needs to be improved. The children want to be participants in the legal process rather than passive objects of that process.     

Emotional maltreatment in Canada: prevalence, reporting and child welfare responses (CIS2)

Objectives

To determine the prevalence and characteristics of reports of emotional maltreatment (EMT) in Canada, as well as changes in these reports between 1998 and 2003.

Methods

This study is based on a secondary analysis of data collected in the first and second Canadian Incidence Study. Emotional maltreatment (excluding exposure to intimate partner violence) investigations were categorized into six groups: emotional abuse, emotional neglect, and other maltreatment as the only investigated form of maltreatment, and these same three groups were examined when they co-occurred with another form of maltreatment.

Results

Both the rate of emotional-abuse-only investigations and emotional-neglect-only investigations increased almost threefold from 1998 to 2003. Substantiated emotional neglect investigations had the highest rate of transfer to ongoing services. Half of the investigations involving single forms of emotional maltreatment occurred for six months or more. Finally, emotional neglect cases (in single form and when it co-occurs with another form of maltreatment) were more likely to be associated with emotional harm and longer duration of maltreatment.

Conclusions

In 2003, EMT represented a significant increasing form of maltreatment and is detected nearly twice as often in situations in which abuse or neglect are also reported. Reports of emotional abuse are two and a half times more frequent than reports of emotional neglect. Nevertheless, lack of emotional engagement may also be difficult to identify, since an omission is more difficult to detect. Reports of EMT often reveal situations of chronic victimization that have been the subject of previous reports and are associated with greater emotional impact.