A Closer Look at the Notorious Birthday Coincidences

The article asks about the minimal number of persons required for achieving a probability 1/2 that a . At least two share a birthday, b . At least one shares the reader's birthday. A basic question about the necessary number of checks underlies both problems.     

A tale of two probabilities

Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.     

Inference and Interval Estimation Methods for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models

Although much is known about the performance of recent methods for inference and interval estimation for indirect or mediated effects with observed variables, little is known about their performance in latent variable models. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo study of 11 different leading or popular methods adapted to structural equation models with latent variables. Manipulated variables included sample size, number of indicators per latent variable, internal consistency per set of indicators, and 16 different path combinations between latent variables. Results indicate that some popular or previously recommended methods, such as the bias-corrected bootstrap and asymptotic standard errors had poorly calibrated Type I error and coverage rates in some conditions. Likelihood-based confidence intervals, the distribution of the product method, and the percentile bootstrap emerged as leading methods for both interval estimation and inference, whereas joint significance tests and the partial posterior method performed well for inference.     

Reading Science Texts—Epistemology, Inquiry, Authenticity—A Rejoinder to Jonathan Osborne

We shall structure this rejoinder around two main sections. In the first, we address three underlying assumptions of our work that Osborne has identified. We indicate points of agreement, disagreement, and clarification. In the second section, we discuss briefly and add our clarifications to three understandings of his that Osborne introduces into the discussion. It should be noted that Osborne’s response is grounded in the same basic assumption as our set of papers, namely, the central role played by reading and writing, and communicative activities in general, both in science and in learning science.     

科学资源对公众科学兴趣的贡献(上)

学校、科学中心、电视媒体、纸质媒体及网络是五种主要的公共科学教育资源。本研究以美国三座大城市的3000名成人为样本,调查了以上资源对公众科学兴趣的价值及认知倾向的作用。通过文献回顾,确定了以成人现在的科学兴趣价值观和认知倾向与其现在和过去使用相关科学资源的关系为研究目标,通过对洛杉矶、凤凰城和费城家庭样本使用CATI随机抽样得到的数据,采用主成分分析法得出最终问卷,并开展了相关人口统计学变量分析。     

科学资源对公众科学兴趣的贡献(下)

学校、科学中心、广播媒体、纸质媒体及互联网是五种主要的公共科学教育资源。本研究以美国三座大城市的3000名成人为样本,调查了以上资源对公众科学兴趣的价值及认知倾向的作用。下篇展示了如下调查结果:有五种经历对预测成年后的科学兴趣、价值及认知倾向具有特殊重要性,即青少年早期参观科学中心;青少年早期观看科学类电视节目;成年后参观科学中心;成年后阅读科学类书籍杂志;成年后使用互联网学习科学。本文同时讨论了自我选择、经历的质量以及科学学习生态系统的复杂性和协同性。