汇率、金价、油价、利率、物价之因果关系检定与预测——向量误差修正模型之应用

该研究是针对汇率、金价、油价、利率、物价之因果关系检定来分析,经ADF单根检定显示：一阶差分后所有变量数据皆呈现定态,再由共整合检定得知,汇率、金价、油价、利率、物价存在共整合关系,透过VECM发现：前期金价提高将导致本期汇率下跌;前期金价提高将使本期金价下跌;前期油价提高将促使本期金价上涨;前期利率提高会使本期利率下跌;前期金价上升将使本期物价下跌;前期利率提高将造成本期物价上涨。至于Granger因果关系检定显示：金价会Granger影响利率和油价,利率会Granger影响汇率,但汇率及物价不会Granger影响其它变量。最后将汇率和物价分别与以VECM来预测,预测模型之MAE,MSE,及MAPE准则皆符合,显示预测结果良好。     

浙江省FDI与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章基于1989—2010年浙江省统计资料中GDP与外商直接投资(FDI)数据,构建时间序列回归模型,运用变量的平稳性(ADF)检验、协整检验以及Granger因果检验,对FDI与浙江经济增长的关系进行实证分析。可以看出,FDI有力地促进了浙江经济的增长,而浙江经济增长在一定程度上也是吸引FDI的原因,两者存在着一定的相关关系。在此基础上,对有效利用外商直接投资来促进浙江经济增长提出了科学的对策建议。     

汉语中连谓谓语句的歧义现象

本文提出了连谓谓语句的两种歧义格式：一种是连动短语作谓语的句子与主谓短语作宾语的句子的歧义;一种是连动短语作谓语的句子与动补短语作谓语的句子的歧义。并就此剖析了歧义产生的条件,从而论证出消除歧义的一些方法。     

商业用语的翻译障碍及解决途径

随着我国国际贸易事业的急速发展 ,商业用语翻译的地位越发显得举足轻重 ,其中商标及广告用语的翻译更是备受关注。由于不同语言之间的差异 ,在翻译时就会产生一系列的障碍。本文主要就商标翻译方面 ,阐述产生障碍的原因 ,以及解决这些问题的参考技巧。     

英语阅读中对从句的判断与分析

英语阅读资料中常会出现比较复杂的长句。对句子主要结构的误解常会引起整个句子的歧义。试从分析从句类型及层次的角度出发，提供一种实用的阅读方法。     

Twenty-Five Centuries of Quantum Physics: From Pythagoras to Us,and from Subjectivism to Realism

Three main theses are proposed. The first is that the idea of a quantum or minimal unit is not peculiar to quantum theory, since it already occurs in the classical theories of elasticity and electrolysis. Second, the peculiarities of the objects described by quantum theory are the following: their basic laws are probabilistic; some of their properties, such as position and energy, are blunt rather than sharp; two particles that were once together continue to be associated even after becoming spatially separated; and the vacuum has physical properties, so that it is a kind of matter. Third, the orthodox or Copenhagen interpretation of the theory is false, and may conveniently be replaced with a realist (though not classicist) interpretation. Heisenberg's inequality, Schrödinger's cat and Zeno's quantum paradox are discussed in the light of the two rival interpretations. It is also shown that the experiments that falsified Bell's inequality do not refute realism but the classicism inherent in hidden variables theories.     

一叶落何以知天下秋?——浅析教育技术研究中的因果关系

中国的教育研究走向世界面临两个重要的瓶颈:一是数据资料的匮乏,二是研究方法的缺失.首先从教育技术研究的两个实例入手,以因果关系为主线,探讨了定量研究方法在教育中的应用.中西教育研究方法差异的表象之下隐含着中西思维方式和文化的差异,而这种差异曾经导致过痛苦的历史后果.其次从历史和文化的比较中,深信只有将分析与综合的方法有机地整合在一起,中国才会产生出超越西方的思想武器.同样不可否认的是,方法的缺失部分是由数据资料的缺失引起的.最后呼吁中国的决策者和有识之士应把教育数据资料库的建设、整合和透明公开使用,作为提升教育研究水平,增强教育决策科学性的战略性步骤来思考.     

异常句的特殊表达效果

异常句的表现形式是个人言语行为的不合规范,其生成原因是指语词组合违反逻辑。虽然它在交际过程中所占比例很少,但它在特定语境中往往产生特殊表达效果。     

Designing effective supports for causal reasoning

Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the “cement of the universe” [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and inferences, and explaining phenomena. Causal relations are usually more complex than learners understand. In order to be able to understand and apply causal relationships, learners must be able to articulate numerous covariational attributes of causal relationships, including direction, valency, probability, duration, responsiveness, as well as mechanistic attributes, including process, conjunctions/disjunctions, and necessity/sufficiency. We describe different methods for supporting causal learning, including influence diagrams, simulations, questions, and different causal modeling tools, including expert systems, systems dynamics tools, and causal modeling tools. Extensive research is needed to validate and contrast these methods for supporting causal reasoning.     

汉语无主句的英译技巧初探

中西思维方式的不同导致了中西语言表达方式上的不同。英语注重形合,比较突出主语,因而英语中的绝大部分句子都必须有主语;而汉语注重意合,突出陈述的主题内容而非主语本身。正因为此,"无主句"成为汉语语言的特色之一。依据主语的可寻性程度和隐藏性程度,"无主句"这一特殊语言现象,又可分为:相对无主句和绝对无主句。对于不同类型的汉语无主句,英译过程中需要区别对待,分类处理。本文就常见的汉语无主句的英译方法进行初步探讨。