耕地面积与农业经济增长:协整与Granger检验——以安徽省为例

以安徽省耕地面积及农业经济增长1990~2009年时间序列数据为例,通过单位根检验、协整和Granger因果检验,明确两时间序列的依存和因果关系。研究表明,安徽省耕地面积和农业产值之间存在长期均衡关系,耕地面积是农业产值的原因,而农业产值不是耕地面积的原因,通过加大农业科技投入、构建高产高效的生态集约农业生产体系和推进农业产业化,提高耕地资源的综合产出率至关重要。此外,要确定合理耕地占用量,着力解决当前土地产权制度不完全情况下"征用+批租"模式的外部性问题。     

Why does the president tweet this? Discovering reasons and contexts for politicians’ tweets from news articles

Politicians’ tweets can have important political and economic implications. However, limited context makes it hard for readers to instantly and precisely understand them, especially from a causal perspective. The triggers for these tweets may have been reported in news prior to the tweets, but simply finding similar news articles would not serve the purpose, given the following reasons. First, readers may only be interested in finding the reasons and contexts (we call causal backgrounds) for a certain part of a tweet. Intuitively, such content would be politically relevant and accord with public’s recent attention, which is not usually reflected within the context. Besides, the content should be human-readable, while the noisy and informal nature of tweets hinders regular Open Information Extraction systems. Second, similarity does not capture causality and the causality between tweet contents and news contents is beyond the scopes of causality extraction tools. Meanwhile, it will be non-trivial to construct a high-quality tweet-to-intent dataset.We propose the first end-to-end framework for discovering causal backgrounds of politicians’ tweets by: 1. Designing an Open IE system considering rule-free representations for tweets; 2. Introducing sources like Wikipedia linkage and edit history to identify focal contents; 3. Finding implicit causalities between different contexts using explicit causalities learned elsewhere. We curate a comprehensive dataset of interpretations from political journalists for 533 tweets from 5 US politicians. On average, we obtain the correct answers within top-2 recommendations. We make our dataset and framework code publicly available.     

Higher Education and Unemployment: a cointegration and causality analysis of the case of Turkey

This article analyses the short and the long-term relations between higher education and unemployment in Turkey for the period 1960–2007. It chooses the recently developed ARDL cointegration and Granger causality of Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) methods. While the proxy of unemployment is total unemployment rate, higher education graduates were chosen to represent higher education. The cointegration and error correction analysis show that higher education is one of the factors which increases the unemployment rate both in the short and the long-run in Turkey. In addition, findings of causality analysis reveal that there is a bi-directional causality between higher education and unemployment and support evidence in favour of Plümper and Schneider (2007)'s theory. Overall, the study concludes that, if governments wish to benefit optimally from the higher education graduates in Turkey, they should not invest more in higher education than the economy needs.     

戏剧人物对话中存现句的语用价值

存现句的使用和戏剧这一文学形式是密不可分的,大量使用存现句是戏剧的言语形式特征之一。戏剧人物对话中的存现句虽然出现的频率不高,但其独特的语用价值是值得我们研究的。     

论休谟哲学中概然性的含意

在休谟的哲学著作中,概然性理论十分晦涩,但是休谟非常重视这一部分内容。通过梳理休谟提出概然性的具体论证,有助于澄清概然性在人性哲学中的具体内涵。对这一概念的澄清,是理解休谟哲学的重要基础。同时,休谟的概然性是概率的原初概念,这也是休谟对归纳逻辑的重要贡献之一。     

试论《水浒传》诗词谣曲和人物行为的因果联系

在《水浒传》中,作者运用不少诗词谣曲,将108个形象鲜明、命运各异的人物的行为因果联系起来,对人物形象的塑造起到很好的作用。     

先唐诔文的体式演变

诔文体式随着时代的演进而演进。先秦诔文初具雏形，然体式尚不稳定；汉诔稳定了述德和写哀两方面的内容和先述德后写哀的内部结构，并且确立了四言句式，使诔文体式得以定型；魏晋以来诔文主要通过写哀部分的句式改变方面实现诔文体式的革新。     

张载“理学四句”的内涵

本文试图从张载的四句话：“由太虚,有天之名;由气化,有道之名;合虚与气,有性之名;合性与知觉,有心之名”对其哲学中的相关概念“太虚”、“天”、“气”、“道”、“性”、“心”进行层级分析,进而来分析张载哲学的基本框架。     

“横渠四句”与知识分子的使命感

张载是宋明儒学的主要奠基人之一,他在继承儒家自强不息精神的基础上,提出了具有民胞物予情怀和天人合一精神的“横渠四句”：“为天地立心,为生民立命,为往圣继绝学,为万世开太平。”“横渠四句”不仅体现了张载传承儒学道统的决心和信心,而且包含了士大夫深沉的忧患意识,以及由此引发的对道德理想和政治理想的不断追求和实践,并且这种追求和实践融入了中国士大夫无限的使命感和责任感．对于今天仍然有非常重大的现实意义。     

我国1978—2007年通货膨胀原因辨析——一种源自Grange检验的否定

基于1978—2007年的数据,本文运用Grange检验法对我国改革开放三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因进行了辨析。通过对有关文献提出的相关变量进行检验发现：各个特殊阶段通货膨胀的影响因素并不是三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因;相反,适度的通货膨胀却对经济增长、进出口增加、固定资产投资总额以及平均工资的增长均具有正向促进作用,表明适度的通货膨胀在我国改革开放中是“非中性”的。