中国电力行业周期波动特征及电力需求影响因素分析 ——基于景气分析及误差修正模型的研究

2008年的国际金融危机使我国电力消费需求快速下降,而宏观经济却保持正增长,这一现象使人们怀疑数据的真实性。本文使用景气分析方法建立了电力行业景气指数,分析了2000年以来电力行业的周期波动特征,并使用月度数据建立了误差修正模型,研究了影响电力行业波动的长期经济因素和短期动态调整效应。研究结果表明,电力行业景气与宏观经济波动具有一致的变化趋势,但波动幅度不同;工业经济增长、高耗电行业结构、库存及电力需求之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,工业经济增长和经济结构重型化是影响电力需求的最重要因素,库存与电力需求之间存在显著负相关关系;从金融危机时期电力行业波动的谷底来看,工业经济下滑和高耗电行业结构变化是电力行业周期波动出现深谷的主要原因,特别地,由于市场需求变化引起的库存调整能够导致电力需求更剧烈的波动;无论是长期还是短期,电价对电力需求的影响都不显著。     

Powerbuiler 9.0关键数据处理技术研究

通过如何避免PowerBuiler9.0弹出系统错误的实例,阐述DataWindows错误处理机制,介绍一些关键数据处理技巧。     

复杂地表与地质地震资料处理技术研究与应用综述

复杂地区典型特征往往表现为近地表地质结构复杂,纵向、横向变化大,地下地质构造破碎,大倾角老地层出露。介绍了该类地区地震资料的主要特点;分析了处理好该类地震资料起决定性作用的静校正、去噪技术、频率补偿及偏移成像几个重要环节,并指出了生产中应注意的几个问题。     

矿物分析的误差控制办法

矿物分析是一个基础性的学科,应用十分广泛。然而,在矿物分析中因各种因素造成一定的误差,本文在分析矿物分析原理和过程的基础上,提出在分析过程中控制误差的办法。     

中国历史文选应有《十七史商榷》的一席之地

王鸣盛的《十七史商榷》是清代乾嘉考据学著作中的考史代表作,无论是在为学生提供学史入门的途径、培养学生治史的基本技能方面,还是在符合文选的选文标准方面都有着显著的优势,作中国历史文选课程教材是适宜的。     

A comparative study of error detection in discourse

A study of error detection in discourse is reported in which children 10 to 13 years old listened to set of expository texts read aloud, read the texts via a moving window simulated on a computer screen, or read them typed on paper. Occasional changes were introduced in the texts, resulting in illformedness at a semantic level, at a morphosyntactic level, or (in reading) at an orthographic level. The subjects were 278 Swedish 4th and 6th grade pupils. Analysis of d showed that all test groups performed above chance, that 6th grade children were better at the task, and that errors were easiest to detect while listening. By the same standard, detecting errors when reading was easier from hard copy. However, 4th graders detected both more othographic and morpho-syntactic errors when reading from the moving window, suggesting some advantage in presenting text to younger readers from left to right.     

Unequal Forced-Intra-Refresh for robust video streaming

INTRODUCTION In the encoding or transcoding of video stream- ing, intra refresh is introduced as a non-normative error-resilience tool. Although the intra-refresh schemes based on the rate-distortion optimization (C?té et al., 2000; Stockhammer et al., 2002) are superior to the early heuristic intra-refresh strategies, these new schemes cannot yet accurately estimate the video distortion due to time-varying packet losses, and usually ignore the inter-frame error-propagation effect. Chiou…     

Risk, error and accountability: improving the practice of school leaders

This paper seeks to explore the notion of risk as an organisational logic within schools, the impact of contemporary accountability regimes on managing risk and then, in turn, to posit a systems-based process of risk management underpinned by a positive logic of risk. It moves through a number of steps beginning with the development of an understanding of risk, the risk society and the logic of risk derived from the seminal work of Douglas (1992, Risk and blame: essays in cultural theory, London: Sage), Beck (1992, Risk society: towards a new modernity. London: Sage) and Giddens (1990, The consequences of modernity. Cambridge: Polity Press). Second, the paper juxtaposes this understanding of risk with the rise of accountability imperatives and an “audit culture” [Strathern (1997) European Review, 5(3), 305–321] in public institutions, including schools. It then moves to consider how a systems-based approach to risk management, drawing on Reason’s (1990, Human Error. New York: Cambridge University Press) model of human error minimisation, could be usefully developed for schools. Such an approach would be built on a positive risk logic which maintains the flexibility, innovativeness and adaptability so necessary in education and avoids the more deleterious effects of many current forms of accountability and risk management which reflect avoidance, conformity and rigidity.     

The correction of errors committed with high confidence

Most theories predict that when people indicate that they are highly confident they are producing their strongest responses. Hence, if such a high confidence response is in error it should be overwritten only with great difficulty. In contrast to this prediction, we have found that people easily correct erroneous responses to general information questions endorsed as correct with high-confidence, so long as the correct answer is given as feedback. Three potential explanations for this unexpected hypercorrection effect are summarized. The explanation that is tested here, in two experiments, is that after a person commits a high-confidence error the correct answer feedback, being surprising or unexpected, is given more attention than is accorded to the feedback to low-confidence errors. This enhanced attentional capture leads to better memory. In both experiments, a tone detection task was presented concurrently with the corrective feedback to assess the attentional capture of feedback stimuli. In both, tone detection was selectively impaired during the feedback to high confidence errors. It was also negatively related to final performance, indicating that the attention not devoted to the tone detection was effectively engaged by the corrective feedback. These data support the attentional explanation of the high-confidence hypercorrection effect.